SHTF-what does this mean to you??

I have tried to have this discussion many times on other forums.
to many people this side of the "pond", it means little more than "minor" inconveniences, a short period of illness, a trade union strike, travel problems, electricity blackouts and the odd winter storm, such things that last a few hours, a few days or a week at most, then its back to "normal".
this seems to cover about 99% of the people in the UK who call themselves "preppers", this and nothing more.
try to discuss something of a more long term or permanent duration and one is labelled an idiot, a kook, a fantasist or mentally deficient!!
it seems that few people will ever consider anything that does little to interrupt their cosy little lives and trying to discuss same you get the same reply as if talking to one who is not prepared in any shape of form, its the "it'll never happen" mentality or "normalcy bias" if you like.
given what is happening in the world today, I think the human race has not been this close to the edge since the end of WW2 70 years ago.
but trying to convince others of this seems to be a hopeless task.

 

Me and mime are ready well prepared when shtf means we cut of road and and keep on doing what we do

 

being "prepared" means different things to different people, some are okay for a few days, some for a few weeks, some even for a month, but more than that? very few prepare for anything long term, which was kinda the point of my OP.

 

I don't think SHTF will be anything natural, most natural things seem to be clear up the mess and start again, no matter how bad the actual event is its something that wont actual make societal collapse occur(unless its a meteor from space that is!).
I think any societal collapse will be brought about by a man made happening, economic and political occurences are the main ones that spring to mind.
the problem with modern humans , especially this side of the pond, is that we have become a race of "specalists" and rely on others to do things that we cannot, self reliance has become a dirty word , government and big business systems have taken over where once we did things for ourselves.

 

Unrest the people fed up with the goverment is hapening more often and everywhere gangs illeagles white black religion all things are getting more often and more violent be ready allways have a plan have more than one stash place and place to go ME IM GONE ALLREADY. WAS FED UP 34 YEARS AGO

 

the world has been going downhill ever since the end of the 1960s.

 

a lot has changed in Britain during the last 48 years, more people for instance, the population now stands at 64 million.
85% of that number now lives in cities, they are 4 generations removed from the land on average( my mother was a farmers daughter).
most do not know where their food comes from, and sometimes which animal, nor do they care.
in a societal collapse situation the survival rate is expected to be between 10-5%, i'm sure you can do the math!!

 

Britain as a island is tough to survive a few well placed nukes game over sorry

 

I have always though a nuclear war is unsurviveable anywhere, its about the only scenario I don't prep for.

 

Even here thats the one thing that will put us down no place safe after that

 

When nukes fly most will die then those that are well bunkered will last awhile but nukes are bad for all

 

nuclear warheads these days are much smaller than those in the cold war, an area could be targeted better than the old style carpet bombing.
one reason I moved from my last location is because they were talking about building a new reactor at a location 15 miles from where I was living-that was 7 years ago.

 

prevailing wind in my area is FROM the south west which means the wind is blowing AWAY from my location.

 

I totally agree with lonewolf, we can not possibly know what may happen from one day to the next. We here are prepared for everything that we can possibly survive, & that does not include a nuclear war or an Alien invasion. Anyone who thinks "that could never happen to us" & is not prepared for it, is going to have a hard time of it.
Personally what a shtf situation means to us is that we no longer will have to pay Rates/Tax, & there will be no law enforcement. Right now BOTH are an impediment to us in regards to self-sufficiency & self-reliance. The law is unable to protect us, but it limits what we are able to do. I have no illusions as to how hard & dangerous it would be, but we have had a lot of experience with raiders & other survival situations so we are prepared.
Priorities? Get a piece of land away from town & city as soon as you can. If you can't afford it, scout out some good locations whenever you get the time.
Keith.

Cattail Pond in Butterfly Valley in Wychwood Forest. A good water supply is essential & it will also provide food.

 

I've always said with regard to prepping:" i'd rather be proved wrong than proved right", but I don't think I will be, proved wrong I mean.
I don't know about any "payment" but people will either live or die by the decisions they make, the first decision anyone has to make is whether to prepare, 99% of the British population have already failed that one.

 

Interesting question, & one I have though about many times. As a for instance, it is quite obvious to me that the Australian government does not give a damn about the people, but what about their own families? Take climate change for instance, this is going to get worse, further down the track our grandchildren will be facing real problems. So do these politicians simply not care about their own families, or do they have a plan to protect them? Personally I don't think they give a damn about anyone, not even their own families. They are too rapt up in corruption, making more money, gaining more power. They have no thought for the future, only the now.
Keith.

 

don't base your survival on movies they are only entertainment for the masses.
most people have forgotten anything they might have learned from the movie about 5 minutes after the closing credits.

 

To me a SHTF situation is an event that lasts longer than a month & is life threatening or involves serious discomfort. Cyclone Tracey back in 74 was such an event for me & mine, & we were lucky to survive. If the grid were to go down for over a month I would imagine this would be life threatening for some & certainly discomfort, especially in winter in the cities. There are of course larger scenarios, such as an invasion by a foreign power, but I think terrorist attacks & natural disasters are more likely at this time.

For people living in the city, a blackout means: No electricity for home lighting,cooking,air conditioning or heating. No power for electric transport road vehicles. No street lighting or shop lighting, no fuel, shops will close. There will be looting, & house break-ins & it will not be safe out on the streets at night. Food will have to be purchased at open air markets for cash only. There will be no traffic lights & transport will come to a standstill as soon as vehicles run out of fuel. Underground tunnels & railway stations will flood, & there will be no train transport running anywhere. When transport comes to a halt the garbage will start to build up on the streets. All remaining fuel reserves that do not require electricity to deliver will be taken by the military, the police & emergency services.
Long term there may be curfews imposed & martial law. Being on the streets even in daylight if you are seen carrying any baggage will be dangerous. Causes of Blackouts are: Over use of electrical appliances in winter especially heaters. Over use of air conditioning in summer. A terrorist attack on the grid. An EMP attack. Bad weather, storms, cyclones etc. Earthquake.
Keith.
Can anyone add to this?

 

i think you can forget Mad Max, I've always said if the power grid goes down we will go back to a pre industrial revolution lifestyle, here in Britain that's the mid 18th century.
however the majority of the British population will not survive because they are 4 generations removed from the land, 80% now live in cities and get ALL their food from supermarkets, they don't grow their own food and most would not know how to, once the supermarkets are empty and no chance of resupply and the filling stations are empty- that would take about 48 hours at most- then that's the beginning of the end for most.

 

I think its the same in most westernised countries these days, people have moved on and become technologically dependent for their daily survival, but they don't realise it.
the old skills and knowledge have been lost and reliance is put on computers and globilisation- shipping stuff in from the other side of the world.
when I was a kid, we ate stuff that was "in season", if it wasn't in season we didn't have it to eat, now people complain if some exotic item isn't in the shops.
my parents and my friends parents all grew their own food, not all of it even then but a lot of fruit and veg was home grown, this was in the days before supermarkets( I didn't see my first supermarket until I was 22) and chances are when you ran out of something the shop was shut- they didn't open 24/7 like now, so you didn't- run out I mean!! larders and pantry's were common place, now they are looked on as something "quaint" and old fashiuoned.

 

yes, as well as the general outline of SHTF common to all countries and locations, many places will have other problems which are specific to their areas and theirs alone.

 

no, me neither.

 

no, we'll leave that to Hillary (Clinton)

 

Communist? since when has SA been communist? first I've heard of it.

 

yes, you are, but most of the population is not and never will be.

 

And there in itself could lie a threat to all those that have made preparation. Most as I think you have said before will not make it far out of the cities, if at all, but there will be those resourceful ones that will try & seek help from country dwellers. I hate the thought of having to turn people away, but it will have to be done if it is warranted.
Keith.

 

i don't believe in a country where people don't walk more than 200 yards from their vehicles that post event they will be in a position to walk very far, and just where are they going if they do? if, as I believe, they will just wander about, hoping and praying to find food, water and shelter, then I have nothing to worry about being several hundreds of miles from any large city or urban centre, they will perish long before they even get out of "the home Counties" or "the black country".

 

actually, do you really think that people who have saved up the deposit-usually for years- then bought a house and spent years and years-anything up to 25- paying the mortgage, are just going to up and leave and go wandering the land just because there is no food in the shops or the power is off??of course they aren't. i'm not saying that anyone who lives near a big city isn't going to have problems with looters, because they will, but these looters wont go far, maybe a days walk then they will return home with whatever they have looted. the only people who might leave a British city are those in the inner city who have been burnt out by the rioters, like we saw in the Tottenham riots some years ago.
I know "the golden horde" is a favourite of some of the American bloggers but I have never subscribed to that particular scenario, not in Britain anyway, most people think "nowhere is safe" in the UK(usually its some Londoner who thinks this) a thought I am very happy to encourage as it makes my remote corner of the country more secure!

 

In England as you know, villages are not very far apart. When my second born son visited England on his own, he arrived late at night. He got a lift to Chichester, but walked from Chichester to Bognore Regis & thought nothing of it. Now I do not know what anyone might find in these villages, but I think it is reasonable to assume that some people will find food & shelter to keep them going. They will learn along the way how to improve their position. They may stay in these areas, depending on the resources they find, or they may use these villages as stepping stones to places further away.
Yes I agree with you. most will stay or fail to make the journey, but there are a lot of people, & I don't think all of them will go under so easily. There are going to be some like you, resourceful, driven & determined.
Keith.

 

I do agree, I think you have it pegged for the majority. But I can't help thinking that there will be some like you & I that will act sensibly & put life before possessions. People with a sense of adventure who will dare to leave home. Whether these people would pose a threat is hard to say, extreme conditions calls for extreme measures.
Keith.