Current Briefing On Corona Virus

Discussion in 'News, Current Events, and Politics' started by Pragmatist, Jan 24, 2020.

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  1. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0124-coronavirus-update.html


    Good morning all,

    Currently going on ... it started at 10 AM Washington, D.C. time ... is the current CDC briefing.

    About midway through link at TRANSCRIPT, is a hyperlink to the CDC site where they'll post the transcript of the briefing.

    Personally speaking, I rely on my 2 standard (anti-) epidemic protections:
    1. stay out of Walmart
    2. wash hands more often than usual
     
  2. lonewolf

    lonewolf Legendary Survivalist Staff Member
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    41 Million now in lockdown in 14 cities, if this isn't a pandemic I don't know what is.
     
  3. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good afternoon Lonewolf,

    14 cities ... a problem ?

    Let's hold off judgment until Greta Thornberg addresses the UN so we can learn from her insight.
     
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  4. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good afternoon Poltiregist,

    I lived in China for 3 decades and never heard of this.

    Public health is somewhat strict. No longer is it easy to see someone spitting in public.

    ALL areas of China are watched, less some headaches with the big cities like Shanghai. Some neighbor seeing a willful health hazard will report the event as a matter of routine.

    Now, as a Westerner, I was in "groomed" areas for a good impression but still my Chinese colleagues never mentioned this. Of course with 1 Billion + population, my colleagues views are also limited.
     
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  5. robinwood01

    robinwood01 New Member
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  6. Sourdough

    Sourdough "eleutheromaniac"
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    Here's a glimpse of new virus-related developments that occurred overnight.

    • China announces another 15 deaths in Hubei province

    • Total number of confirmed cases now 1,000+, 41 dead.

    • China restricts travel for 46+ million people across 16 cities as the death toll surges.

    • AFP reports that the virus has jumped to Europe, with three confirmed cases now in France.

    • Two deaths have been reported outside Wuhan.

    • Some residents displaying symptoms are being turned away from hospitals.

    • Hospitals in Wuhan make urgent pleas for help and supplies.

    • Beijing orders PLA medics to assist in Wuhan treating patients

    • UK and US governments tell citizens to avoid outbreak zones.

    • 63 suspected cases in US, Senator says 3 confirmed, with two reported so far in Illinois and California, and two suspected in Minnesota
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...-wuhan-outbreak-overwhelms-chinese-healthcare
     
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  7. Dunmaghlas

    Dunmaghlas Expert Member
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    We ain't gonna owe China that money pretty soon. But on a more serious note, this is a pandemic. Here in the U.S. we have to take action to keep this from getting here, i.e. blocking travel to/from China, increase awareness, etc. I don't want a black plague scenario all over again. Side note: those of you who don't have CBRN equipment, get some.
     
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  8. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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    LOL
    Good idea!
     
  9. Dunmaghlas

    Dunmaghlas Expert Member
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    Just found out there's been at least one Corona case in my hometown. Shit is getting everywhere already, fortunately I'll be stuck at MCRD Parris Island for the next three months where I can't catch something like that.
     
  10. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Dunmaghlas,

    Speaking of MCRD, Parris Island, South Carolina, a few days ago had mentioned here my guess that other airports were also checking for the virus besides SFO and JFK (3 additional airports were named soon after). I mentioned NAS Norfolk. That place processes passengers who are active duty military, retired military, dependents, US contractors, foreign contractors, members of the Civil Service, members of the Excepted Service, ...... arriving from all over - not just Spain.

    Fortunately, the NAS Norfolk medical inspectors are the best of the best.

    Ref: "CBRN equipment";

    I've been preaching here about HAZMAT suits. Had also mentioned the new battle uniform would be an armored HAZMAT suit.

    ........

    Don't forget to visit the Bernard Baruch plantation !
     
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  11. Dunmaghlas

    Dunmaghlas Expert Member
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    Yeah, we're fortunate to have people already checking for Corona. Keep preaching HAZMATs, people need that stuff!
     
  12. lonewolf

    lonewolf Legendary Survivalist Staff Member
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    the W.H.O. still wont declare a pandemic, according to most descriptions a pandemic is a disease that is widespread over a whole country, a continent or the world, given the scope of this disease I think a pandemic seems to apply.
     
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  13. Dunmaghlas

    Dunmaghlas Expert Member
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    Yeah I'd say it's pretty widespread in China lol considering ~46 mil cases.
     
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  14. Blitz

    Blitz Master Survivalist
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    It's just been confirmed Australia now has 4 cases.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-spreads-Australia-Four-confirmed-cases.html

    Makes me laugh the "authorities" talking about banning flights. It's a bit late for that now ...

    An A380 landed with 500 passengers on board from China? Hmmm ...

    "From today (Saturday), anyone arriving in Australia on flights from other parts of China will be met and provided instruction on what to do it they have symptoms it start to develop them,' Mr Morrison's statement read."

    Really? Wow, that's soooo helpful.

    "Ms Mikakos said it was 'possible' the man wasn't contagious while on board as he didn't start showing symptoms until after arriving in Melbourne.

    'We are now in the process of making contact with all the other passengers [on the flight],' she said.

    'It is important to stress that there is no cause for alarm to the community."

    "The infected man in Melbourne has pneumonia and is in a stable condition, being treated in a negative pressure isolation room.

    Deputy Chief Health Officer Dr Angie Bone said the man felt tired after landing in Melbourne, before he started feeling ill later that day.

    He then presented himself to a doctor on Thursday, four days after arriving in Australia."


    What's the point in checking passenger's temperature when they get off a plane? Does anyone know what the incubation period is? I can't find any mention of it.

    And what's this all about? "Face masks are not recommended for use by members of the public in Victoria for the prevention of infections like novel coronavirus,' the Victoria health department said in a statement." Why aren't the authorities advising people exactly what sort of protective gear is recommended?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...coronavirus-outbreak-10-TIMES-worse-SARS.html

    https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coron...ndemic-that-killed-50-m-people-151608803.html
     
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  15. Blitz

    Blitz Master Survivalist
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    Yeah, good idea, *laughing wildly* :eek::D
     
  16. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    Hey man, the Chinese communist overlords wouldn't lie!
     
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  17. Justin Baker

    Justin Baker Expert Member
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    The only two reported cases of The Cvirus are in Chicago and Washington State.
     
  18. Dunmaghlas

    Dunmaghlas Expert Member
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    There's three suspected cases n my hometown and honestly I'm just not going to take chances and assume the worst.
     
  19. Dunmaghlas

    Dunmaghlas Expert Member
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    BAhahahahahha good one
     
  20. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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  21. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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    It ranges from 2-14 days.
    Some can be infected but never show any symptoms.
    The death rates seem to be 1-3%
     
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  22. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    Article; California cases; CDC reports four confirmed cases.
    Date: Jan 26, 2020

    https://www.breitbart.com/border/20...-could-spread-two-weeks-before-symptoms-show/

    I'm still in a information fog about all of this. I don't know who to believe. Add to that the incubation period. Current numbers are very initial. We'll have to wait two weeks to see the beginnings of cases going clinical here in the States. China's massive reactions speak to their worries. A decade ago, China tried to cover-up a flu pandemic and it came 'round to bite them in the butt. So, they are doing as much as possible this time. Still, I don't know what's really going on. I'm impatient, but will have to wait.
     
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  23. lonewolf

    lonewolf Legendary Survivalist Staff Member
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    no cases in the UK so far, 50 people tested but all came back negative.
     
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  24. Blitz

    Blitz Master Survivalist
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    Thanks Snyper.

    Arking hell, I think 3% is about equivalent to the Spanish Flu. And back then, they didn't have commercial air travel or antibiotics for secondary infections. Wow. This isn't going to end well.
     
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  25. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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    Yes, that is about the same.
    I'm not sure how accurate it is but that is the figure I keep seeing most often.

    They also didn't have access to the level of health care and knowledge we have now.
    I don't think it will equal the 1918 Pandemic if people will use a little common sense.
     
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  26. Snyper

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    This article is very informative and not hysterical like some others:

    PRO/AH/EDR> NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (19): CHINA (HUBEI) TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS
    ***********************************************************************

    In this post:
    [1] 2019-nCoV transmission dynamics [letter]
    [2] Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV
    [3] 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

    ****
    [1] Novel 2019 coronavirus transmission dynamics

    Date: 26 January 2020
    From: David Fisman, MD MPH [edited]

    I wish to offer the following observations on the epidemiology of 2019-nCoV in Hubei Province, China, over the past few weeks. I hope that the thoughts below will be helpful to others trying to organize and interpret the flood of information that has emerged about this new pathogen.

    Information from a variety of sources suggests that this novel virus is a recombinant beta-coronavirus of animal origin that emerged in November or December 2019, likely at the Wuhan Seafood Market. Epidemiological analysis was initiated after recognition of a market-linked pneumonia cluster in late December. Notwithstanding the name of the "Wuhan Seafood Market", the market sells large numbers of live animals, including wild animals, which are kept in close proximity to one another, perhaps facilitating viral recombination. Similar disrupted ecology contributed to the emergence of SARS.

    The emergence of many cases of a novel, animal-derived pathogen in a live animal market, over a short time period was suggestive of a point source outbreak with animal-to-human spread, and I'll assume that the initial cluster of approximately 40 cases was largely a result of such transmission, with little human-to-human transmission. However, on January 23, 2020, the WHO released the report of its IHR Emergency Committee for nCoV; the report noted that "fourth generation transmission" was occurring, and cited internal analyses placing the basic reproduction number (R0) at between 1.4 and 2.5; this report noted that 557 cases (which I'll round up to 600 cases) had been confirmed as of January 22, 2020 (ref.1). Several estimates of R0 appeared from independent groups around the same time; these estimates were remarkable in their consistency, ranging from 1.4 to 3.8 (refs.2-7).

    Such consistency despite limited data availability and disparate methods employed for estimation provides a degree of face validity to these estimates. I note that these estimates are likely skewed upwards by the greater recognition of larger case clusters and super-spreader events (there has been at least one 14-case cluster in a hospital), and also by the possibility that later cases are being recognized more completely than earlier cases, all of which would have the tendency of biasing R0 estimates upwards. I'll assume that the lower bound R0 (around 2) is probably about right, and also note that this is consistent with estimates from SARS coronavirus, which shares substantial genetic similarity with nCoV.

    What would be the implications of a disease with R0 ~ 2, with four generations of transmission over a period of around a month? This timeline would be consistent with growth in the number of recognized cases from 40 to 600 during that time interval. If nCoV has a generation time of approximately 10 days (similar to that described for SARS), we would have expected the initial 40 cases from late December to cause 80 secondary cases in early January (120 total cases); these 80 cases would create 160 incident cases around mid-January (280 total cases), which would in turn create another 320 cases around January 22 (600 total cases).

    These numbers fit very nicely to case data available as of January 22, 2020, but unfortunately, they are wrong. The abrupt surge in confirmed case counts (to 1423 cases as of January 26, 2020) is not compatible with the growth process described above, certainly not with a SARS-compatible generation time of 6-10 days.

    Indeed, the authors of the MRC model (3) noted in one of their earlier reports that the volume of observed exported cases in countries outside China suggested a much larger underlying epidemic than had been reported at that time, and this epidemic may have begun a month prior to the recognition of the market-associated outbreak, consistent with the reported timing of viral emergence based on phylogenetic analyses (5).

    The authors of several analyses cited above have incorporated the MRC estimates of under-reporting in order to fit their models (2, 3, 5). A second line of evidence suggesting undercounting of cases relates to the older age of cases (median 59 years in early reports), and the even older age of fatal cases (averaging around 75 years in the first 17 deaths) as contrasted with a median age of 37 or 38 years in China.
    Increased age in cases as compared to the population as a whole suggests that younger (likely milder) cases have been under-reported.

    As such, it would seem likely that at least part of the sudden apparent growth in case counts does not reflect changes in transmission, but rather increasing ascertainment of previously undercounted cases.

    Why is R0 so important? As R0 is proportional to duration of infectivity, reducing the infective period of cases would reduce the effective reproduction number. If the effective duration of infectivity is reduced by over 50% for a pathogen with R0 ~ 2, the average reproduction number would be reduced to less than 1, which should control viral spread over time.

    It is encouraging that one of the reports cited above suggests that the mean time from symptom onset to isolation has decreased from more than 6 days to less than 1 day as control measures have been implemented (6). Social distancing measures (like suspension of public gatherings and transportation) and reduced transmission per contact (e.g., through the use of personal protective items by healthcare workers) would also result in proportionate reductions in the reproduction number. Precise predictions in the face of substantial uncertainty are not appropriate, but given the large size of the epidemic as of the time of writing, some simple back-of-the-envelope math can demonstrate that large numbers of incident cases should be expected in the coming weeks, even in the face of effective control efforts. Successful control of this outbreak would be expected to take many months (again, as was the case with SARS).

    While average estimates of R0 are helpful, it is also important to note that other beta-coronaviruses of public health importance (SARS, MERS) have been notable for the "overdispersion" of their reproductive numbers. Without getting too technical, this means that the average R0 is quite different from the variability in the R0. We actually have a distribution of R0 with a long "tail", which is a mathematical shorthand for superspreader events, where a case infects a large number of individuals. For example, there was at least one SARS superspreader who generated 76 downstream cases. However, with an overdispersed R0 many cases are "dead ends" and will not transmit. The three key insights here for the contour of this epidemic are:

    1. It is the average R0 that determines whether, and how, the disease can be controlled. By analogy with SARS and MERS, with which nCoV seems to share many characteristics, the spread of this virus should be controllable.

    2. Superspreader events are likely (and have already occurred) and are important to outbreak control efforts: they are demoralizing and dangerous to response personnel. They often occur in hospitals during aerosol-generating procedures like intubation. These events make it feel like the battle is being lost. They should be anticipated, and it is important to emphasize that their occurrence will represent a temporary setback which is likely to be overcome.

    3. While superspreader events are unwelcome, their occurrence may, in fact, be a salutary sign for the control of this outbreak. An average R0 of, say, 2, with an overdispersed R0 means that many cases are also likely to be "dead ends" epidemiologically. Inasmuch as superspreader events may be more likely to be recognized due to their dramatic nature, an outbreak driven by superspreaders may be more likely to attract the control measures needed to disrupt transmission. By contrast, a more homogeneous outbreak, where each and every case has the potential to create a downstream cascade of cases in the absence of recognition, may be much more difficult to control.

    As I note above, this outbreak is in its early weeks and understanding and knowledge will doubtless change. However, analysis of the cases counts, rate of growth of the epidemic, reproduction number estimates, and estimates of likely undercounting that have emerged over the past two weeks can provide a coherent view of the likely early dynamics of this outbreak, and also suggest what the contours of the outbreak may look like if control efforts are successful.

    David N. Fisman, MD MPH FRCP(C)
    Professor, Epidemiology
    Dalla Lana School of Public Health
    University of Toronto

    Link: ProMED-mail
     
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  27. lonewolf

    lonewolf Legendary Survivalist Staff Member
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    80 dead this morning.
     
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  28. Sourdough

    Sourdough "eleutheromaniac"
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  29. Sourdough

    Sourdough "eleutheromaniac"
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  30. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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    What's the point in spreading panic and hysteria by posting pure speculation?
     
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  31. Rebecca

    Rebecca Master Survivalist
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    Honestly if people on this site are going to devolve into panic and hysteria over something clearly marked as a model, well then they do they even fit in here at all? Surely everyone who wants to call themselves a prepper or survivalist has enough analytical skills to evaluate such information correctly. We are not a bunch of fainting pansies on facebook. And I personally appreciate all information regardless of whether I personally classify it as useful or not worth bothering with.
     
  32. Sourdough

    Sourdough "eleutheromaniac"
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    Every forum seems to have a "Pet" Troll. They are entertaining as long as they don't pee on the carpet.
     
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  33. Sonofliberty

    Sonofliberty Master Survivalist
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    This virus does bear watching, it is potentially very dangerous. That being said, the sky is not yet falling lol
     
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  34. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    I don't see anybody here panicking.

    One day there IS going to be a nasty pandemic. This corona virus may not be it, however it is a fascinating study of how nasties begin. We study earthquake damage when the scale is not horrid so as to be able to extrapolate to when a BIG one shows-up. We've learned a lot about damage by investigating which building types get the worst damage. Engineering specifications now take into account the information gathered by previous earthquake studies.

    We've seen what China has had to do to address the issues created by this current coronavirus. We can make plans based on this data.

    https://www.breitbart.com/news/china-races-against-the-clock-to-build-virus-hospitals/

    Here's some info on the nature of the virus:

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/23/coronavirus-related-swine-flu-12108415/

    "However, although they are both respiratory diseases with similar symptoms, genetically coronaviruses and flu viruses look very different. Coronavirus in fact has more in common with other, more severe respiratory diseases such as Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers), and severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars).

    "Sars originated in China in 2002 and killed nearly 800 people around the world, whilst Mers first appeared in 2012 in Jordan before spreading through the Arabian peninsula.

    "These coronavirus outbreaks have proven far less deadly than swine flu, ..."
    .
     
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  35. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Snyper,

    It's not pure speculation.

    The medic folks use forward-looking business models and statistical speculation to make guesses - some correct; some not.

    Recall a definition of - Plagiarism : If you copy from an author, it's called plagiarism. If you copy from 3 or more authors, it's called research.
     
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  36. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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    LOL
    You love the name calling don't you?

    Everything on that chart beyond the highlighted portion is speculation.

    They themselves called it "assumptions" in the lower left corner.

    I appreciate honest, reliable information.
    I see no point in speculative "models" that are nothing but guesswork.

    It's fine if you don't agree.
    I never said you had to.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2020
  37. Sourdough

    Sourdough "eleutheromaniac"
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  38. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard ! Staff Member
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    The model does pose a problem for me as it does seem to project a doubling but I don't see a correlation that substantiates those type of numbers.
     
  39. Sourdough

    Sourdough "eleutheromaniac"
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    It is in the article..........(I think it is) Overnight the number of case jumped 91%
     
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  40. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard ! Staff Member
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    A 91 % increase is too much of an assumption for me. I don't know of any past disease that has an infection rate that high. Maybe the number is based on the number that is now being discovered verse the actual infections rate, that would also seriously miss-state the results.
     
  41. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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    That just means they updated the data as test results came back.
    It doesn't mean the number increased that much overnight.

    Zerohedge is fueling the hysteria to get hits on their website.

     
  42. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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    "Other human coronaviruses
    Two other human coronaviruses, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have been known to frequently cause severe symptoms. MERS symptoms usually include fever, cough, and shortness of breath which often progress to pneumonia.

    About 3 or 4 out of every 10 patients reported with MERS have died.


    MERS cases continue to occur, primarily in the Arabian Peninsula. SARS symptoms often included fever, chills, and body aches which usually progressed to pneumonia. No human cases of SARS have been reported anywhere in the world since 2004."

    MERS has a much higher death rate than the new virus.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/2019-ncov-factsheet.pdf

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/sick-with-2019-nCoV-fact-sheet.pdf
     
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  43. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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    Something to think about.
    Influenza of one type or another kills around 35,000 in the US each year.

    Who do you know that ran out and bought masks for that?
    Or Measles?
    Or TB?
     
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  44. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Snyper,

    Your thought question is important.

    This area's Prepper community has a small contingent outfitted with masks, gloves, related PPE. The emergency responder community is loaded with the basics eg non-latex gloves, N95 masks - because of no-cost availability.

    For the non-specialized bio-medical perspective, like private citizen Preppers, there are common denominators in re the Corona Virus, influenza, measles, TB.

    Prepper preparedness means:
    - maintain good health, eg diet, hydration
    - keep immunizations current
    - rest, appropriate sleep
    - PPE for personally-researched environment, realistic situations anticipated

    A Responder or a Prepper driving to an emergency bio-type scene with both NOT wearing a P-100 mask and hard hat is a nominal risk until arrival. DRIVING a private vehicle on a public road is the great danger.

    Still, the respiratory ailments, whether flu or the Wuhan virus are not protected against in a crowded Walmart. It's like SCUBA diving in a shark-infested lagoon.
     
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  45. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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  46. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Snyper,

    Not challenging the numbers. I don't know.

    I do know that Johns Hopkins University = CDC. Without Congressional $$$, Johns Hopkins enters the history books.

    What government in Europe would want to announce any confirmed corona virus deaths ? Hotels and airlines - and restaurants - don't get decent revenue during scares. Plus, the airlines, with additional regulations, could stop flying routes to declared danger cities.
     
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  47. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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    Most places only have 1 case, all with direct ties to China.
    Announcing the death of the patient would signal an end to their spreading the infection.

    As they should, and have done in China.
     
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  48. Snyper

    Snyper Master Survivalist
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  49. Sourdough

    Sourdough "eleutheromaniac"
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  50. Snyper

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