Earthquake Preppers

https://www.citylab.com/environment...redness-plan-earthquake-tsunami-storm/603799/


Good morning all,

Per ...

It's a good article but with a major flaw.

The article has "Alameda a relatively affluent neighborhood of mostly older, white homeowners enjoy privileges that lower income areas lack..."

Knowing one's (trustworthy) neighbors and stockpiling water and food does not require affluence.

 

From what I could read out from that article, its more about social gathering than educating the neighbourhood regarding prepping.

BTW does anyone there ever consider to just bug-out elsewhere post disaster until some kind of normalcy return? For example my line of thinking IF my dwellings (plural) ever became untenable is to bugging out to the nearest hotel in unaffected town / city

 

Good morning Varuna,

The article did mention unskilled neighbors helping their injured neighbors.

Evacuations are on my list of options - with the "however,".

My governing philosophy is to GO TO SAFETY AND NOT AWAY FROM DANGER.

Evacuations involve some gambling. What if the hotel in the unaffected area is occupied by those with an infectious disease ? What if this same area experiences political disturbances ? Leaving one's homestead also means leaving one's supplies of water, food, medicines, etc because an evacuation restricts one's load.

Many variables present. I could leave here to a location of safety and later return to my shack and see it occupied by some people with tuberculous. At my age, in practical terms, if I enter my house to expel them, I'd get infected.

No definite answers; just best guesses.

 

The story claims a possible tsunami of 85'. Other estimated are from 100' to 500'. The one I tend to follow is the "everything west of I-5," though that probably includes quake damage. When you consider that the quake will split from north of Washington to south of Oregon, will be between an 8 and a 9, and last several minutes their 2 week prep is quite optimistic.

In 1700 the Cascadia killed people in Japan. The ports in Southern British Columbia will be gone. Prince Rupert will probably have to cover for Canada. Long Beach, and if we're lucky, SanFrancisco will be open for American freight.

Alaska has no rail system that connects to the rest of the continent so we will die on the vine. Most of the barges, tugs, and ships will be inland and and the docks will be demolished. It will take years to clean up the mess though a few months should get some things operational. The ocean floor will change by several fathoms in places so the entire coastline will have to be re-charted.

I'd suggest the article is fluffy, feel good piece. As this group is in Portland, a notoriously democrat area, I guess that they think the government will dash right over to rescue them. Good luck.

 

Good morning Caribou,

I use a different "method" when reading articles, whether re earthquakes, financial, military, etc. The variables are unknown but the preparations are about the same whether a tidal wave is 40 ft or 110 ft.

Long Beach, San Pedro, the military berths at San Diego and some special arrangements can handle Pacific cargo. It would only be a fraction of pre-disaster loads.

Alaska isn't going away. This is one piece of terrain with immediate existential significance.

Forget the whale sight-seeing boats and the photo-ops at Mount McKinley. It is Alaska's Air Defense Identification Zone and the Alaska portion of the Distant Early Warning Line that has a priority up there with protecting the money supply.

Valdez might be a useless liquid cargo port but everything protecting the territorial integrity of Alaska will be at work.

 

I agree that the military will be taken care of. For one they have adequate supplies stocked for some time. I would expect that getting cut off is part of their planning. Airlifting supplies for the military is doable. The issue is the civilians and their feeding. Alaska produces fish and not much else. I know of one dairy. There are several farms but that won't feed the State. Likewise with the ranching.

Tsunami damage from Cascadia is always possible but I doubt it is likely to be significant. The problem I worry about is the freight. Most of our sustenance arrives on the barges out of Seattle. Any barges a sea will be fine. The barges and tugs in harbour will be severely damaged, sunk, or washed inland. If we only loose half the Alaskan fleet we will be lucky.

Lets go with half the fleet running twice as far (to Southern CA) means we will be getting about a quarter of the freight that we do now. That is if they don't take some of our barges for the construction of the West Coast.

 

In WWII we built the Alaska Highway but that was only designed to supply the military. Today it is mostly paved but it is still only one lane each way. Some trucking comes through Canada but only a handful of trucks per day. Trying to feed Alaska by road would be monumental. With the traffic they have today I have seen them run out of fuel along the highway let alone a sudden massive trucking convoy. It would take significant time to deploy the fuel delivery alone.

About five years ago the wife and I went on a 22,000 mile road trip from Alaska to Florida and most points between. Everywhere, and I mean everywhere, there were advertisements for truck drivers. Many trucks would be lost. Construction materials and supplies would have to be brought in from out of State. Where do we come up with the trucks and drivers and trailers to feed 700,000 people in Alaska before starvation sets in while in the midst of higher demand. No, you're not going to feed everyone moose.

Cascadia presents a real threat to Alaska, without ever feeling the slightest shake or significant rise in tide.

 

Good morning Caribou,

You're bring up 2 important subjects. I've discussed both in other threads ... not that clearly on purpose ... because of the sensitivity.

Some rehashed ramblings; The big national change was replacing the Civil Defense Act of 1950. The "military" is no longer completely distinct as an entity like it was during the Cold War. The new philosophy is "C.O.G. - Continuity of Government". If, for example, Anchorage Airport is involved in the Alaska COG plans, then those Alaskan civilians, both civil service and contractor employees at the airport, will be feed, like the military. The news stands might not be around but the restaurant/cafeteria operators and maintenance crews, will be provided for. I don't know what's going on now but my writing here tells of the lower 48 programs. Again, what is part of Alaska COG plans, incorporates providing for the Alaska civilians in support of COG.

Using New York City as an example, I mentioned Hades/SHTF situations. The entire metro population cannot be provided for, There are too few Responders and equipment/vehicles, shelters, medical clinics. A key word would be "equilibrium". If eg there is a 15% end strength of the various Responder rolls available to respond to SHTF, the resources will be allocated accordingly.

Yes, truckers are in demand. Here, a trucker with a HAZMAT endorsement: a wise career decision.

Madam and you took an interesting trip to Florida.

 

To think of it Portland is quite a distance inland if any major tsunami will struck. Using example of 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake & Tsunami which is also triggered by similar megathrust earthquake, the resulting tsunami was about 3m / 10' high when it hit the city (which is closer to the coast). A 2 floor earthquake resistant house is suffice to ride out the tsunami with all the supplies and other critical equipments (small generator, portable reverse osmosis, communication, other electronics, etc) stashed in upper floor.

 

You should consider putting which area you will be bugging out into proper planning with multiple options beforehand, and took consideration of all aspect. That is the purpose of having reliable (proven) ground source along with electronic support.

Try consider remote sensing for your dwelling. I've setup several such system for clients, and as it happen my next potential client (hopefully can be actualized next year) is a plantation + beach resort in one of the most earthquake + tsunami prone area.

We are currently living in 21st century and the reliability of both consumer and industrial grade electronic has progress far beyond whatever they use to be in the 1980's

 

Good morning Varuna,

I use an all hazards approach.

There are limited options in the mid-Atlantic seaboard. The area is over-saturated with an unsupportable population. Evacuations can only be accomplished at the earliest time. Otherwise, like the population, there are too many vehicles for the roads to handle.

Don't understand the meaning of "remote sensing for your dwelling".

I have electronic support but ALL electronics can be closed down if nearby USN believes it interferes with their assignments. Plus, cell and sat phones can become useless.

All this I anticipated; age just slows down planning and acting on the plans.

 

If the East Coast gets a tsunami it could be 3,000' and it would involve the Gulf Coast as well though the Caribbean Islands would take the brunt of it. Europe and Africa would get hit on the rebound.

 

What movie was that?

 

Funny. Las Palmas Island has a crack wide enough for a man to walk through. If it lets go a quarter to a third of the island will fall into the Atlantic. Landslide tsunamis don't have the limitations in height that fault slip tsunamis have.

Still laughing? In my lifetime we had a 1720' (524M) tsunami in Alaska. It is not the largest one we have had.

 

The wifer and I have visited the beach. We've taken the kids and had a good time. We've visited family living near the New Madrid epicenter. We've had real estate agents take us to see very nice houses built on flood plains. We've smiled and said, "How nice!"

Nice to visit. Not gonna live there.

We live where earthquakes RARELY ever happen. We have earthquake insurance.

Arabic tradition has it (not in Koran) that:

عن أنس بن مالك قَالَ رَجُلٌ يَا رَسُولَ اللَّهِ أَعْقِلُهَا وَأَتَوَكَّلُ أَوْ أُطْلِقُهَا وَأَتَوَكَّلُ قَالَ صَلَّى اللَّهُ عَلَيْهِ وَسَلَّمَ اعْقِلْهَا وَتَوَكَّلْ
سنن الترمذي كتاب صفة القيامة والرقائق والورع 2517
المحدث الألباني خلاصة حكم المحدث حسن في صحيح الترمذ 2517

"Anas ibn Malik reported: A man said, 'O Messenger of Allah, should I tie my camel and trust in Allah, or should I leave her untied and trust in Allah?' The Prophet, peace and blessings be upon him, said, 'Tie her and trust in Allah.'”

"An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure." Ben Franklin

 

Tick ... tick ... tick ...

"Is the U.S. Overdue for a Catastrophic Earthquake? These Cities Are Most at Risk"

https://news.yahoo.com/u-overdue-catastrophic-earthquake-cities-141550313.html

"The likelihood that the U.S. will see a catastrophic earthquake within the next 30 years is very high — and it’s not just the West Coast that’s at risk, experts say.

"Seismologists have long warned that the U.S. is 'overdue' for an earthquake, because a catastrophic one has not occurred in the U.S. since about 1989, when the Loma Prieta earthquake killed at least 63 people in California, said Robert Yeats, a geology professor at Oregon State University. The most destructive earthquake the U.S. has ever seen was the 7.9-magnitude 'Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906,' which killed an estimated 3,000 people, according to the agency. As more years have passed without earthquakes, pressure has built up along certain fault lines as tectonic plates try to shift, including in the Pacific Northwest and California, Yeats said."


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"First Europe-wide earthquake risk model shows the cities and regions most threatened by disaster "

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/...-the-cities-and-regions-most-threatened-by-di

"Scientists have created the first earthquake risk model for the whole of Europe which will form the basis for mitigation measures and making communities more resilient to the impact of natural disasters.

"Earthquakes have been responsible for more than 200,000 deaths - as well as €250 billion in damage - in Europe during the 20th century.

"Because it can’t be accurately predicted when and where they are going to take place in the future, areas at particular risk need to construct homes and buildings that can withstand earthquakes without taking too much damage."

 

Jamaica just got hit with a minor earthquake. This knocked-out the electricity in some communities down there. Structural damage to buildings seen. No fatalities reported so far.

 

In the past week or so, the Earth has gotten all shaky -- this, all over the place Caribbean, Afghanistan, now the Ring of Fire.

"6.6 Earthquake Strikes Chile, Felt in Argentina"

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/6-6-earthquake-strikes-chile-felt-in-argentina/

"A 6.6 magnitude earthquake hit the southwest of Huasco, Chile, and was also felt in many provinces in neighboring Argentina.

"On Tuesday morning, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck off the coast of northern Chile, which prompted rumbles not only in Chile but Argentina as well. However, there were no early reports of damage and authorities indicated that there was no risk of tsunamis at the time.

"Chile is positioned in the Pacific’s so-called “Ring of Fire” and is prone to earthquakes.

"Back in 2010, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake hit and a subsequent tsunami killed at least 526 people."
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