Emp/solar Flare.

Discussion in 'Other Not Listed Situations' started by lonewolf, Oct 19, 2020.

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  1. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    My phone rang today with the ominous revelation a X Class C.M.E. at the scale of 8.7 has now erupted . Luckly for earth it came from the departing boiling pot that has been spitting out all of the X Class C.M.E. ' s The sun had barley rotated enough that this will miss earth or at most give us a departing glancing blow . I didn't just take the phone call with no verification , I checked it out and it does indeed appear to be factual . --- Now for another update - another huge boiling mess on the sun has now turned coming into view to the point it can be seen and it too spit out a giant C.M.E. I don't have its rated strength . This C.M. E. like the departing one will also miss earth . However this boiling inferno is now rotating to take aim at earth and will have full excess to wreck havoc for a few coming days . --- I don't have a link to this new information to provide at the moment , but if another member doesn't provide a link , I will try to provide one .
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2024
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  2. Brownbear

    Brownbear Master Survivalist
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    Other than giving us a rather splendid Northern Lights show nothing has happened at all.
     
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  3. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    We're not catching as much flack.

    upload_2024-5-15_3-44-30.png
     
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  4. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    https://spaceweathernews.com/ --- Here is a link to the information that I gave on my last above post . -- Personally I was wondering how long it will take for the sun spot that provided earth with all those solar flares to return for another round . This link provided that answer , about two weeks . That will put it back into earth firing position about the end of this month .
     
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  5. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    There's been an X-flare from another region of the sun. Here's NOAA's photo:

    upload_2024-5-15_15-36-45.png
     
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  6. Max rigger

    Max rigger Master Survivalist
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    Any oldie but much of it still valid
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Brownbear

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    Interesting video looking at the similarity between the recent solar flares and the Carrington event from a scientific perspective.

     
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    1. Old Geezer
      I don't want it to be solar flares doing the work, however Earth could do with some more ozone. If the planet gets too hot, we might have to go back to shooting sulfur into the upper atmosphere. Currently, we are scrubbing-out the sulfur from the smoke of coal-fired power generation plants. Acid rain is very bad (via sulfuric acid), so we will have to figure-out a balance-point. China is currently dumping untold amounts of sulfur into the atmosphere.
       
      Old Geezer, May 17, 2024
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  8. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    Been getting ready for the electrical grid to go down . This week I hauled in 3 truck loads " pickup truck " of firewood for next winter . This wood is for my Ashley wood heater . My plans are for hauling in more , but that is all I have planed to get this month . Once the grid is gone the Fuel pumps will go with it . At that point gasoline will be too precious to be traveling to fetch firewood . My wood cook stove takes small wood which I have already stacked , but also will be easy to replenish from the woodlands around me . --- It amazes me of those that think they will get in a vehicle , drive down the road and fetch water , as if the gasoline availability is of no issue . Or think they will get in a vehicle and travel to their envisioned bugout location without any consideration of the gasoline that it will take to do so . --- earth's inhabitants should be thanking their supreme being that the X 8.7 C.M.E missed earth . It is my understanding even the Carrington event didn't even reach a X 6 class . It ain't over and won't be over for many months ahead . Whether someone is prepared or not , those C.M.E. 's just don't care .
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2024
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  9. lonewolf

    lonewolf Societal Collapse Survivalist. Staff Member
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    The power grid WILL go down at some point but I dont think it will be this current solar flare that will do it.
     
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  10. Brownbear

    Brownbear Master Survivalist
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    One has to be realistic, the Carrington Event burnt out early Morse Code system etc, but that was prior to the "fail safe" systems we use today, back then they did not even "earth" their electrical. Whilst potentially an EMP can burn out electronics there is little evidence to suggest it would do. The tricky part of it is that potentially it could burn out an isolated system (which is, of course, different from a power surge which requires connection to a supply system).
     
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  11. lonewolf

    lonewolf Societal Collapse Survivalist. Staff Member
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    a scientist has warned we could get much stronger storms in 2025 and 2026, so it could still happen.
     
  12. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    Another bad looking sun spot has rotated into view . It has already spit out a C.M.E. but the C.M.E. was not yet in position to fire at earth nor was it of the strength to be a substantial threat . The C.M.E. threat level continues to rise as the sun is increasingly becoming more volatile . We await to see the sunspot that was gaining strength C.M.E. " X 8.7 as it rotated from view reappears and to its strength when we next see it .
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2024
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  13. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    Currently, there are over 200-thousand people in Texas without electric power due to the massive storms down there. These folk could be without power for weeks. Initially, one million Texans were without power. The folk without power now are in their situation due to MASSIVE damage to power grid infrastructure.

    The grid is a house of cards. Mighty engineering fixes have been made; but hey, let's face it, Mother Nature will do as She pleases. Massive engineering fixes withing the past decade or so have protected the grid. Yet, with all things, there are limits. Eight hundred thousand folk got put back on line ... yet 200,000 are without power and may be without power for over two weeks.

    This is a wake-up call for our entire nation. Those who are wise will wake up. As for those who are ignorant, I simply can't worry about them.

    Having been served by the Tennessee Valley Authority for many decades in times past, the wifer and I (plus our offspring; we handed off our older generators; one son works for a BIG concern that props-up infrastructure) know all about going days upon days without power. I've got stories upon stories; but then everybody else (millions, tens of millions) have the same story. The North, the Yankees, are beyond soft. They moan and groan about a day or three without power. We in the South make jokes about them! ;););):D:D:D:D:D:D:D

    Southern Appalachian folk (my clan and others) are known for "roughing it" ... for fun ... to get back to where from they/we and their/our Ancestry came. Remembrances, Holy remembrances. Our clan yearly gathered on a mountain way past 6,000 feet up in the clouds (literally) for the fun, for the Gathering of Blood. This was a thing done. Electricity? What a joke!!!!!!!! All these people knew no electricity nor indoor plumbing when they were being raised-up. Dear God on High, praise be unto You for those beyond spectacular times!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! At altitude and in the cool of the day and eve, food becomes ambrosia, near-divine, ... I'm without words, thinking of those times. Purity and Cleanliness are Divine attributes AND! are Gifts to us that too few know. Manna? Now that I'm thinking about it, maybe so ... hmmmmm ... yes, how about that ... wow ... gosh, never thought about that. Right now, I've run out of words. I keep learning things here in my old age. Why hadn't I thought about that? Gotta give thanks about that. Haven't. How stupid of me! I'm an idiot.
    ...............
    -----------------------------
     
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  14. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    https://spaceweathernews.com/ --- Amazing to me as to the people that think last weeks big sunspot spitting out those X Class C.M.E. 's , now that it has rotated out of sight and out of aim at earth , everything is all better now and the threat is now gone . Remember - it was gaining strength as it rotated out of sight . Well apparently the science gurus have a way of watching that spot on the back side of the sun . It is still increasing in ferocity . Overnight it spit out a whopping " X Class C.M.E. that surpassed X 10 . Guess what , it is still growing and " will " align back up for another attack on earth . " One week left " until " potential " C.M.E. attacks from this monster spot . -- Prepared or not prepared , that was the responsibility of the adults of the household . Preppers need to check their defensive preparations such as guns and amo for what may be about to become our new normal .
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2024
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  15. Max rigger

    Max rigger Master Survivalist
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    Had a drop off of wood today, guess about 2 full cords a mix of black oak and olive wood so in theory with what I had to hand I should be fine for at least two seasons. Picked a bucket full of gherkins and they'll be picked by tomorrow. My propane supply is in an external tank but thought I'd pick up 3 or 4 11kg tanks and what a performance that was. The Spanish love paperwork, fill it in, get it double stamped before I could get a certificate allowing me to register to buy then going to the retailer, presenting my cert and buying the canisters.

    Stocked up on wine, Cava, beer and spirits...none will go to waste
     
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  16. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c163j8551ygo

    Begin quote

    Since last Saturday, the Sun has continued pumping out increased radiation - a huge solar flare on Tuesday disrupted high-frequency radio communications globally.

    And this hyperactive sunspot won’t be the last. The Sun is approaching what is called "solar maximum" - a point during an 11-year cycle when its activity is strongest.

    The geomagnetic storm last weekend was a one-in-30 year event and the biggest since 2003, says Sean Elvidge, a professor in space environment at the University of Birmingham.

    It was caused by at least five coronal mass ejections (CMEs) - eruptions of magnetic fields and solar storms - leaving the Sun in close succession.

    Stories of its impacts on global communications, power grids and GPS have trickled in.

    These storms are not just about pretty lights - there is a downside, explains Ian Muirhead, a space systems researcher at University of Manchester:

    “We're much more technologically dependent now than we were even in the last major storm in 2003. A lot of our services come from space - we don’t even realise - it’s the glue that holds together a lot of our economy.”

    SpaceX owner Elon Musk said on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the storm put his Starlink satellites that provide internet “under a lot of pressure”. A spokesperson for the European Space Agency (ESA) said the Starlinks had voltage spikes.

    A flight from San Francisco to Paris was re-routed to avoid flying over the Arctic where radiation was stronger, explains Dr Elvidge.

    Farmers who use tractors with high-precision GPS reported being affected, and manufacturer John Deere warned users about outages.

    And a satellite operated by UK company Sen that films Earth in high definition was put in an "idle" state for four days, meaning it missed taking images of events like the wildfires in Canada, the company said.

    There was stress on power grids too, as the extra current surged through electricity systems.

    In New Zealand, which has a similar electricity grid to the UK, the national grid switched off some circuits across the country as a precaution to prevent damage to equipment.

    The UK National Grid said there was no impact on electricity transmission. The Energy Networks Association, which represents the UK's electricity network operators, said it took precautions like ensuring “extra back-up generation to deal with any voltage fluctuations that may occur.”

    Space weather is not just a threat remote from us on Earth - something happening out there. The government considers the risks from extreme space weather greater than from earthquakes or wildfires.

    On its national risk register, which also covers health pandemics like Covid-19, extreme space weather is rated "four" for likelihood and impact. "One" is for events with the lowest risk, and "five" is the highest.

    An extreme space storm - more powerful than the one last weekend - could cause deaths and injuries through power failures, according to the register.

    “Mobile back-up power generation would be required in some areas for a sustained period, while damaged electricity transformers are replaced, which could take several months," it warns.

    Power in urban areas could be back within hours, it says, but for people living in remote areas by the sea, it could take months for electricity transformers to be replaced.

    "The general consensus is that a solar superstorm is inevitable, a matter not of ‘if’ but ‘when?’," says a report by the Royal Academy of Engineering.

    But we now have two things to help us - forecasting and preparation, explains Dr Elvidge.

    Forecasters like Krista Hammond monitor satellites 24 hours a day for solar activity.

    They issued alerts to governments and critical infrastructure providers about last weekend’s horde of CMEs heading to Earth hours in advance.


    End quote

    If a NOAA alert goes out, they are NOT KIDDING!!!!!!

    Have your Faraday bags, boxes, metal trashcans (seal with conductive tape or foil) ready to be used in a moment's notice.

    Speaking of "notice", notice that New Zealand shut down their national grid "just in case". If a big flare heads our way then note that nation grids here in Western nations will do the same thing. They might not just shut the power off, they may decouple networks, shunt them to ground. How long to come back up? Who knows!
    ------------------------
     
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  17. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    Here's another input from an IT guy:

    "Would the EMP from a solar flare or other source travel through the power lines, into my house, and damage my house's solar panels, inverter, batteries, etc.? If so, how can I protect them?"

    https://www.quora.com/Would-the-EMP...er-batteries-etc-If-so-how-can-I-protect-them

    upload_2024-5-20_14-48-46.png

    Begin quote

    You can’t really.

    TA solar EMP won’t DIRECTLY affect your house. The wires in the house are all too short. A solar EMP causes a DC current in wires at least tens of kilometers long. Communications uses optical fibres these days, so that means the electricity grid.

    The grid operators should get advance warning from a satellite and perform a pre-scheduled grid shutdown. If they don’t, there should now be automatic prorection devices on the grid’s transformers, which will cause a shutdown in an unplanned way.

    The latter has happened before. There tend to be large spikes and surges and brown-outs in various places as it happens. Your inverter is connected to that grid. It might get damaged. The battery and the solar panels, far less likely.

    (If you are living completely off-grid, them you won’t notice a solar storm, apart from all your neighbours power and the streetlights will be out).

    If all goes even slightly well, the solar storm will end within 24 hours and the grid operators will re-start the grid., and then start fixing any local damage. So it’s basically like a severe weather storm but without the severe weather.

    Unfortunately there’s no way to fully test this until it happens … so a degree of trepidation is in order.

    If an EMP from an “other source” means a multi-megaton H-bomb detonated high above your continent, it’s a completely different sort of EMP. It couples into short wires and fries electronics. You might actually be able to protect your inverters and panels with enough expenditure. But on the other hand … it would only happen as the first strike of WW3. Fireballs and blast waves would be on their way within minutes. Fallout, within hours. So unless you live in an extremely remote location, there’s probably no point bothering. You’ll be dead or dying like most people will be, and starving to death within the year if you somehow survive that long. (No Electricity, so no oil refineries, so no fuel, so no agriculture, so no food).


    End quote

    Old Gzr: Do not forget that a massive solar flare could burn our satellites to death. Think about all of the communication and navigation technologies that rely on these satellites!

    These last flares knocked-out navigation systems for American farmers. A BIG flare could blast away every one of our satellites = no comm & no navigation.

    Even though a solar EMP would be ultra low frequency, there's the matter of harmonics, plus I'm paranoid, so I'll have my Faraday solutions ready.
    -------------------------------------
     
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  18. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    The same sun spot that ejected all those x class solar flares has now rotated back to face earth . Up to its usual activity it appears . It has ejected another X class solar flare . However it was a bit premature in having a good aim at earth and this X class solar flare will only give earth a weak glancing blow . Over the next several days it will have a aim at earth . This sun spot has shown it can eject a X class 8.7 . Another interesting week may be about to unfold .
     
  19. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    Good intel Thx

    Couldn't find a site telling me when that sunspot would roll back round.

    I have a bookmark to watch the solar flare activity. Will have to go back watching that.

    Tells one that we are ants on a rock getting ready for the sun to fart us back into the dark ages.
    .
     
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  20. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    "X-Class: A Guide to Solar Flares"

    https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10109

    "Flares happen when the powerful magnetic fields in and around the sun reconnect. They're usually associated with active regions, often seen as sun spots, where the magnetic fields are strongest. Flares are classified according to their strength. The smallest ones are B-class, followed by C, M and X, the largest. Similar to the Richter scale for earthquakes, each letter represents a ten-fold increase in energy output. So an X is 10 times an M and 100 times a C. Within each letter class, there is a finer scale from 1 to 9. C-class flares are too weak to noticeably affect Earth. M-class flares can cause brief radio blackouts at the poles and minor radiation storms that might endanger astronauts. Although X is the last letter, there are flares more than 10 times the power of an X1, so X-class flares can go higher than 9. The most powerful flare on record was in 2003, during the last solar maximum. It was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. They cut-out at X17, and the flare was later estimated to be about X45. A powerful X-class flare like that can create long lasting radiation storms, which can harm satellites and even give airline passengers, flying near the poles, small radiation doses. X flares also have the potential to create global transmission problems and world-wide blackouts."

    Emphasis by Old Gzr
    -----------------------------------------
     
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  21. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    An X class solar flare has now erupted on the sun . It spit out a Coronal mass ejection that will make earth impact June 4th. I do not have this latest X class C.M.E. estimated strength other than it being a X class so if someone has the projected strength please post . -- Note this is the 3 rd. major eruption from that sun spot within a 36 hour period . The sunspot will have full aim at earth for days to come .
     
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  22. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    The NOAA site is going down again on June 11th for more maintenance; this, during the next few days (?).

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

    "Electric Power Community Dashboard":

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/electric-power-community-dashboard

    Their current predictions for solar flare effects on Earth currently go through mid-day June 2nd, i.e. today; see below.


    upload_2024-6-2_13-57-52.png


    The G.O.E.S. satellites haven't gotten hit.

    upload_2024-6-2_13-57-38.png

    =====================================================

    "Sun news June 2, 2024: BAM! Another X flare"

    https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

    "Today’s top story: In the last 24 hours, the now-famous sunspot region AR3697 released another X flare. This X1.0 flare happened at 18:24 UTC on June 1. It caused an R3 (strong) radio blackout over the Americas. There was no significant coronal mass ejection (CME) observed with the X flare. But a lesser flare – an M7.4 flare around 19:01 UTC yesterday – did send something our way. Notice that this M flare came less than an hour after the X! AR3697 just keeps on ticking! Analysis is ongoing, but current estimates are for an Earth-directed CME and geomagnetic activity on June 3-4. Initial indications are for a G1 (minor)-G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm. That would mean auroral displays for higher latitudes at a minimum. We await confirmation of the forecast from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center later today. Stay tuned."

    [​IMG]


    Here's another site:

    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news.html

    =======================================================
    .
    .
     
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  23. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    The sun is still very flatulent. We're told by solar observers that this will last well into 2025.

    Currently nothing big-big.

    upload_2024-6-6_16-5-23.png

    upload_2024-6-6_16-6-12.png
     
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  24. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    A few hours ago that sun spot that is famous for it's C.M.E. ejections spit out another Coronal Mass Ejection , that was more than just impressive . My space guru says that ejection was the most impressive he has ever seen in his entire space guru career . He did not give a calculated strength however . -- Now for the good news , The C.M.E. ejection will likely not effect earth that much " fingers crossed " . The reason being by only a few hours the sun rotation had rotated enough that the main blast will miss earth . We may get a sideways blow . -- Like last time as that sun spot departed it shot out a huge C.M.E. almost like a cat toying with a dying mouse . Our mimesis will be back in about two weeks .
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2024
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  25. Old Geezer

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    Thnx for tracking this solar insanity. I forget to do so. Let's go see what NOAA is saying.

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

    [​IMG]


    Oooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

    The G.O.E.S. satellites got slapped!


    upload_2024-6-8_15-11-52.png


    "Official Request for Communications Impacts from May 2024 G5 Storm
    published: Tuesday, May 28, 2024 20:26 UTC
    The Federal Communications Commission’s Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau (PSHSB or Bureau) seeks comment on any observed impacts to communications that resulted from the May 2024 severe geomagnetic storm.

    "The FCC/Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau released a Public Notice seeking comment on any impact to communications believed to be a result of the May 2024 severe geomagnetic storm. Comments are due 24 June 2024. See link below and attached for the notice. https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-493A1.pdf (link is external) "

    Hey, short-wave radio folk, got any glitches to report? Use the above website.

    What Earth's space atmosphere / magnetic field got hit with:

    upload_2024-6-8_15-21-44.png
     
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  26. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    A threat that blindsided me as probably most of our forum participants , Last night a comet hit earths atmosphere , that brightened the sky and caused a C.M.E. . As for as myself , I didn't know that was possible . The comet burned up and the C.M.E. was ejected in a direction that spared earth's inhabitants . We had another narrow escape . The link will go into this information .https://spaceweathernews.com/
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2024
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  27. Max rigger

    Max rigger Master Survivalist
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    solar forecast
    https://solar.w5mmw.net

    ham radio has been very good of over a week now, the sun is playing nicely
     
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  28. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    Man, I didn't know this either! Thanx for waking-up my brain. Makes sense. The human mind can't fathom the speed of meteorites. When they hit our atmosphere, plasma is generated. Basically, get temperatures high enough and atoms come apart and plasma is beyond just "hot". I've read that powerful lasers can generate ionizing radiation due to their ability to heat matter into the realm of plasma.

    ----------

    "What Happens When a Meteor Hits the Atmosphere?"

    https://tacc.utexas.edu/news/latest-news/2021/10/22/what-happens-when-meteor-hits-atmosphere/

    Begin quote

    Every second, millions of pieces of dirt that are smaller than a grain of sand strike Earth's upper atmosphere. At about 100 kilometers altitude, bits of dust, mainly debris from asteroid collisions, zing through the sky vaporizing as they go 10 to 100 times the speed of a bullet. The bigger ones can make streaks in the sky, meteors that take our breath away.

    The meteor research was published in June 2021 in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics of the American Geophysical Society.

    In it, lead author Glenn Sugar of Johns Hopkins University developed computer simulations to model the physics of what happens when a meteor hits the atmosphere. The meteor heats up and sheds material at hypersonic speeds in a process called ablation. The shed material slams into atmospheric molecules and turns into glowing plasma.

    ...

    "Radars are really sensitive to free electrons," Oppenheim explained. "You make a big, conical plasma that develops immediately in front of the meteoroid and then gets swept out behind the meteoroid. That then is what the radar observes. We want to be able to go from what the radar has observed back to how big that meteoroid is. The simulations allow us to reverse engineer that."

    The goal is to be able to look at the signal strength of radar observations and be able to get physical characteristics on the meteor, such as size and composition.


    End quote


    =================================

    "Simulation-Derived Radar Cross Sections of a New Meteor Head Plasma Distribution Model"

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021JA029171

    "As a meteoroid moves through the atmosphere, collisions with atmospheric particles heat the meteoroid surface. Once the surface temperature reaches the sublimation temperature of the meteoroid material, neutral particles will ablate from the surface and experience collisions with atmospheric particles. These collisions can ionize the particles, resulting in a region of plasma surrounding the meteoroid that is orders of magnitude denser than the background ionospheric plasma. High-power large-aperture (HPLA) radars, such as the Jicamarca Radio Observatory, ALTAIR, and the Arecibo Observatory, can detect this high density plasma as signals referred to as meteor head echoes (Chau & Woodman, 2004; Close, 2002; Janches & Revelle, 2005)."
     
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