Fear Of Preppers

Discussion in 'Mental Preparedness' started by poltiregist, Nov 21, 2019.

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  1. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good afternoon TMT Tactical,

    All of this is already factored into personnel planning...not too much different than airlift capability and capacity on a critical air route. It was never expected to be 100% of morning reports (Army report;not familiar USN). That's why I mentioned there could be plans to only allocate personnel to certain critical infrastructure.

    Even in grid down there will be a percentage of personnel arriving at the assignment. Again: not 100% nor expected to be. The 2 variables: personnel and critical infrastructure will be kept in balance. We've done this before and so far, we're still here.

    Some roads will be cleared and kept cleared - situation governing - for the military and responders, includes LEOs.

    LEOs and Responders have near mirror plans to the military. Some military members have NO family ties.

    Now, add in the well-established and prepared Contractors: military, LEOs and Responders of NGOs (NOn-Government Organizations). Even a real bad dire SHTF event, LOOP and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Navy Norfolk and the West Virginia EOCs will - if I may predict the future based on past experience - be in recovery (already off-grid) and participating in the response.

    Military dependents and related family members of LEOs, Responders, NGOs, some other orgs to include foreign allied here are subject to mandatory evacuations and the destination will have the immunizations and medical care facilities needed for a SHTF event.

    I'm only describing a natural event. Warfare ? The US population is stronger in this arena than the natural perils.

    Although not a publicized program, I've worked the US inland waterways and canals for emergency petroleum resupply and emergency delivery of equipment and spares for refineries at certain areas. We are in decent shape.

    Hope Dad and USN vet son faring AOK.
     
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  2. Dalewick

    Dalewick Master Survivalist
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    OG, I think I didn't make myself clear. caution is always advisable when dealing with danger. Danger is real and our government has become a danger to it's citizens. Fear though, is an emotional response to danger. As with all emotions, fear can lead to irrational responses. Jeopardize your very survival.

    You say that the government may kill me. Your right, they might. That doesn't change how I live. I won't fear what may or may not happen. I wrote my first Will, when I was 18 years old and was told every day, many times a day that I was going to die. I watched friends die and came close a few times myself. You mistakenly called me "brave". I am not brave, by any definition of the word. I have known brave men. They rest in the Punch Bowl in Hawaii and Arlington, VA. I keep faith with them by keeping my countries secrets.

    I worked my entire life for the "feds" as either a soldier, trapper, wildlife biologist or federal officer (federal park ranger).

    Just out of curosity, where did I say I would "fight off a federal raid"?

    I was actually agreeing with you in my post. Sorry if I came across to you as negative.

    Dale
     
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  3. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Evening Pragmatist.

    I must be a little out of touch. When have we ever had a National Grid down event? I am not even aware of any event where the Military personnel were required to abandon their families to mob madness and risk life and limb to report for duty? It is easy to write a report that the roads will be cleared but a lot harder to clear the roads without electricity, fuel or adequate personnel. Now I don't doubt there are plans but as constantly demonstrated, the government is not the best at carrying out the plans. There is a huge difference from responding to a localized event and a national event. As long as the public believes they are going to return to normal, then a local event can be controlled. As soon as the folks realize they are screwed and on their own, then it will be every man and family out for themselves. I am not saying every person and family will go rogue but they will do what ever is needed to protect themselves. Sailors, airmen, soldiers are not going to leave their families in the dark and without any protections, to report for road clearing. At least none of the military personnel I have ever known. Since I am not ex-military (declared 1-y by draft board due to very serious knee injury) I would like to see any of our ex or current military members comment. I may be talking out of my poop chute.
     
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  4. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning TMT Tactical,

    This is a difficult medium to discuss material. Conference rooms, campgrounds and restaurants are best. Plus, I omit much useful and clarifying material if working the web.

    The US has experienced situations - not entire nation - of power losses.

    Avoid the charged terms like "abandon their families". Dependent evacuations are common enough in the post WWII US history. The US diplomatic corps experiences them much - eg only "essential personnel" to remain at embassy, consulate. Others report for evac to airport and onward. Private US industry also has this history.

    We have cleared roads without electricity available. It's not a major difficult emergency project compared to opening a field hospital or repairing an oil refinery.

    Area events are closely related to how national events will turn out. We have enough material to guess the results. The results are not envisioned to be "Ozzie and Harriet" or other pleasant memory times. Response and recovery govern. Recall the oil embargoes. Much was not public but much was and a picture emerges that responses and recoveries can and do work. The trip to the beach might be cancelled but the essentials were working.

    Again; recommend avoid the charged terms like "every man and family out for themselves". Think of scenarios like an epidemic, an area electric power failure, contaminated drinking water. No individual or family can handle this. Advanced-level preppers can - and it is these people who do more than assist the responder orgs - They lead and guide these orgs.

    REAL members of the military - and their civilian equivalents - WILL leave their families. Preparedness allows for their safety. There are too many scenarios and variables to provide specifics. Splitting up is a pre-existing requirement. Again, remember why I mentioned a possible future with "Janissary".

    Look up the official name of the Interstate Highway system. It's similar to the St Lawrence Seaway Commission and the Mississippi River. Resources, both personnel and material, with appropriate funding, are part of the programs.
     
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  5. Ystranc

    Ystranc Master Survivalist
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    To go back to the original post, I don't advertise the fact that I've got some stored goods and back up systems but then again my area of the country has a long history of weather events so I'm not alone in having a well stocked larder and wood stoves as a back up.
    As for fearing the UK Government? No I don't fear malicious actions from them but I do fear the consequences of their past incompetence. They wasted money (billions) on wars, tax give aways for multinationals and badly thought out government contracts. They then try to recoup the losses from their stupidity by austerity measures. One such measure was cutting the police numbers by 20,000 when in actual fact they really should have been increased by that number over the last 10 years.
    Now the UK government is tinkering around the edges of criminal justice legislation in the hope that it will mitigate their lack of investment. It won't.
     
  6. F22 Simpilot

    F22 Simpilot Expert Member
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    Reminds me of when I saw a kid on YouTube make about 3 pounds of RDX in the kitchen. LOL! Could have blew his ass off along with his neighbor's. I wonder how the hell he disposed of it all?

    I sure as hell won't mess with that stuff unless some country invades or something.
     
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  7. F22 Simpilot

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    Thing is, they have so much damn Intel that they are useless! Though, I have read that a good majority of the President's Intel briefings come from the NSA. There's a good book that I read off and on called The Secret Sentry. It's about the NSA from the past to now and its setbacks, etc.
     
  8. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Afternoon Pragmatist

    The issue is not that there are no plans, the issue is the magnitude of the event. A local disaster is not in anyway comparable to a nationwide event. Yes, I deliberately used emotionally charged terms to accentuate the difference from a local event and a nation wide disaster. I did not notice where any of your examples required a first responder to leave their family in harms way, to report to duty. The oil embargo was a semi nasty example of peoples inability to cope but it did not have mass rioting, looting and killing in all neighborhoods. It did get a little ugly at some service stations. A national grid down will have all these examples of violence and even more as the food and water runs out. I seriously doubt any of the interstates will re-open as there will be a lack of manpower to guard them. Starving people will hijack any vehicles moving along the highways. Fuel deliveries will be hijacked. Yes maybe some soldiers will be assigned to protect them, but again starving or cold people will hijack these convoys. Where I think we differ is in our belief in the governments ability to carry out a nationwide COG. All plans of action rely on logistics,--- fuel, equipment, communication, organizational integrity and of course manpower. In a national disaster (national grid down) these items will fail to become a cohesive unit. The replenishment fuel deliver fails to show up. The radioman fails to report in, the trucks break down, the commanding officer does not make it back to base and not enough of the boots on the ground make it back to base. In a local event, all these problems can be dealt with by simply importing the needed material and people for out of the affected area but in a nationwide event, that option goes out the window. I think we also differ in our interpretation regarding continuance of government (COG). To me, just because we have a few thousand government officials and soldiers secured in some bunker, does not qualify as a government continuance. If it is not safe to leave my family and there is no local law enforcement / emergency responders working the streets, then the government is not in operation. Now I say (write ) this with total respect. We just see things in a different light. I maybe too much gloom and doom and your concept my be what happens.
     
  9. Dalewick

    Dalewick Master Survivalist
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    I have had the privilege of working as a soldier and federal LEO. I don't give the government's ability to correct a TEOTWAWKI event much succes. The plans may be above par, but implementing those plans is where I believe the problems will exist. A government is only as effective as the people of employees.

    Much would depend on the SHTF event. Many soldiers, of lower ranks, are single and housed on base. If the situation is so severe that soldiers fear for there famalies, most preppers will be in lock down mode. I

    In my view, if our first responders and military agencies no longer respond and everyone is looking out for there own. There is no government.

    Just my view.

    Dale
     
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  10. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    TMT T you are VERY right about the massive difference between a localized disaster and a nationwide disaster. When we have a hurricane on the Gulf Coast the electric companies and the government agencies are ready to respond almost as soon as the storm has passed. Within 24 hours there will be places where they are handing out bottled water, bags of ice and MREs. Over the next few days, people will show up from all over the place to help get the various services back up and running as soon as possible.

    If the disaster were nationwide there would never be any help arriving. That would mean that people would be sitting waiting for a rescue that would never come. I've lived without power for a couple of weeks and watched people freak out. i will tell you that two weeks is just about all that the sheeple can handle. After that, the riots will start. If you think that the police are going to abandon their families in these situations you are mistaken. After Katrina the polices were mostly a no show. No water means no sewer and that will get ugly fast.

    GOTTA RUN...
     
  11. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    once the lights go off and that is it for most people, I have heard people complaining to news reporters saying " its like the middle ages" and this is literally a couple of hours after a power cut, it seems like the human race is afraid of the dark!
    most places, especially new housing in or near big cities is all electric, most cities are smokeless zones and once the power goes off people freak out.
     
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  12. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning TMT Tactical,

    Web forums are inadequate to properly address this major matter.

    A local disaster - and an area disaster - are both comparable to a national disaster. It's called "front-end loaded". What is working for the area can be expanded. We've done this.

    Now, do review my point that ALL areas might not be priority areas. I've mentioned a few places that might be deemed low priority. Can't elaborate too much on this but Puerto Rico, northern California, north of SFO and some national coastal regions have been in the news.

    I worked the oil embargo (actually plural) and it did involve key personnel leave their families. The oil embargoes did have rioting and Capitol Hill was busy 24/7.

    The nation also has key locations that are off grid.

    Most rioting CAN be controlled. I also worked in riot control. I do not worry about mass rioting. These areas will be cordoned off and relatively easy to control. If it's flu season with no immunized rioters, they will be sick and faint.

    TMT, You've got to spend much more time about current manpower and the built-in expansions. We've got in place equivalents to FDR's Civilian Conservation Corps. Industry might be providing about the same manpower number (but both sexes in re "manpower").

    Less natural events like a hurricane, Interstates 12 and 10, the Louisiana coastal area line of communication, will be provided for and have vehicles in support of petroleum distribution. Interstate 95, Quantico, Virginia to Washington, D.C. will be protected and used. The skilled observer can see what is already in place.

    Starving people TRYING to hijack a vehicle will be handled - easily. Repeat: easily. I won't reply to food deliveries. Review the pre-existing inventory levels of food at locations within critical infrastructure designated areas. More important, however, is knowing about immunization materials and the related medicines.

    I've worked in Continuity of Government matters on a national level and witnessed successful operations.

    Currently, in retirement, I'm doing volunteer work in re both the national level and area level. Only because of my biases against the large cities and their self-made urban blight, I love doing volunteer work in Appalachia, Virginia. We've got field dental operations tested and ready. I worked with LEOs on this and like this thread, we've discussed all (at least some) the aspects of this. Their families have tested plans for responses.

    Now, there are major national weak links: public health matters.

    Again, all the tiles in the national mosaic might not get priority level responses. The LOOP - Houston area will and so will Navy Norfolk - D.C. corridor. You know some other tiles I'm not near.
     
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    1. TMT Tactical
      No disrespect intended but without any "proof" other what you believe will happen. I am going to have to go with my belief there are too many holes and weakness in the COG plan to actually work. Now you have mentioned 'We have done if before" but I don't know of any time we have done it before and you have not shown any time we have done it before. If we have done it before, I doubt this is a national secrete or classified. Too big an event to keep hidden. So I must have missed those news or history lessons. Since there are no actual points to debate, you can't talk about them, and I have not witnessed any national recovery events, we are just going to have to agree to disagree
       
      TMT Tactical, Nov 27, 2019
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  13. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Lonewolf,

    Yes, "most people".

    Isn't that always the case ? Most phase out of existence. Some survive and a few thrive.

    The ratios are historically about the same.
     
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  14. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    I was brought up in a time before supermarkets and mobile phones, everyone had a larder and anyone who didn't store supplies was looked on as a little "odd", nowadays its the other way around! how people have changed.
     
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  15. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Lonewolf,

    My background about the same. Must add that it was supersaturated with non-nonsense stories from the WWII participants. It didn't matter if living in the country or the city: when on sale get some extra cans of food.

    Post WWII, there were 2 matters "pushed" on the knowledgeable public: civil defense and home economics. First aid kits and home economics covered just about all family and individual matters. Those of the knowledgeable public who were activists served in the National Guard, the Civil Defense programs, the Fire Departments,......

    The welfare state took over much of this and left a mess until recently when the real reformers arrived with garden wagons and tools to drain the swamp.
     
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  16. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    yes, my parents went through WW2 as did wife's, her parents moved from the city of Leeds to East Devon just after the war ended because they though the Russians were going to drop the bomb, they lived in an off grid cottage until wife's father died when she was 11.
    Civil Defence in the UK was stopped in the 1980s.
    most people wouldn't have a clue how to look after themselves if a major catastrophe occurred-because they've never had to.
     
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  17. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    People now are much different from how people were that were raised and lived through the40s, 50s, 60s, and early 70s. We were raised regularly reminded that at any moment the world as we know it could end. Every night the news was about the war in Vietnam or Before that Korea and before that it was WW2. My generation had THE BOMB hanging over our heads. We did drills in elementary school to prepare us for an atom bomb attack. We regularly got our nose rubbed in our mortality as friends, family, brothers of friends and such came home from the war in either a box or in pieces. Even among those that came home suicides were not all that uncommon especially if they were perminantly disabled.

    In my family, we had serious conversations about what to in the case of an attack. During the Cuban crisis, the cars were loaded and ready to go for days. My Dad graduated from Highschool when he was 15 and left home to work in an aircraft factory until he turned 16 and could enlist in the navy. His brother was already in the war and flying in the Canadian air corp before Pearl harbor.

    My point is that up until the late 70s all men and some women had to face and accept their mortality at an early age. We were well aware that bad things can happen to good people and there was almost nothing that we could do about it. I think that a certain level of preparation back then was more common than now because it was the best that we could do to try and make ourselves feel more secure. We always had enough food in the house for a month.

    People born since then have no reason to think that they will be forced to go to war or that war might come to them. This has allowed innocence or ignorance to become the norm. Now with an all-volunteer army people that don't want to defend our country are not asked to. Unfortunately, they are allowed to make decisions about how the country that they would never defend should be run. The problem with or American Democracy is that it was NEVER intended to be run by idiots and cowards. Originally the right to vote was kind of like respect. It was something that you earned to some extent and not something that was just given to you with no effort on your part required.
     
  18. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Here is something to think about. How many in higher education do you think are Veterans. These are the folks teaching our impressionable young people.
     
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  19. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    The so-called "higher" education offered by many of the universities is almost useless. Out of four or five years, most of the required course work has nothing whatsoever to do with the subject you are there to learn about. A lot of it had nothing to do with ANYTHING that you will ever need to know. A lot of it is just plain and sinple liberal political propaganda.

    Then all too often in all but the best universities and colleges, the actual course work is offered to them by people that have never actually done that sort of thing for a living or were unsuccessful in that effort. Their entire working life has been in academia and that isn't reality in ANY profession except being a professor. Unfortunately, the skill of a professor is in talking and felling and not doing.

    I understand and know that this isn't true for all professors nor is it the case in all universities. There is a very real reason why graduates from some top-flight universities are much more sought out and receive higher starting wages than those from other even similar-sized schools.

    I have two daughters with degrees and I will tell you for a fact that nothing that they learned in school was a benefit to either of them in their careers except the piece of paper that SAYS that they sat in class and paid the required money to get the degree. In the end, neither persued the work that their degree was for. Most places these days don't seem to care what your BS or BA is in. They just want to see the paper. What they both found when leaving college is that there is little demand for fresh graduates in their degrees and that starting wages are a joke. Once again with all that said, they have both got a lot out of having those degrees. Both ended up with good jobs that they couldn't have even tried for without a degree.

    My youngest has a degree in Kinesiology... which is physical education with a minor in math. She had wanted to teach and be a coach in high school. While in school she worked at a truck stop and by the time she graduated she was their merchandizer and handled the ordering and stock that they sold other than petrochemicals. When she graduated and started looking into jobs she came to me and said that she would have to take a cut in pay to teach. She instead went to work for the state in their commissary department and now handles multimillion-dollar contracts for their institutional sales. Her degree allowed her to get in the door but it was the experience that she got working in that truck stop that actually made the difference.
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2019
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  20. Dalewick

    Dalewick Master Survivalist
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    Question - if the government is not providing basic life preserving services at local levels, ie. Police, fire, medical, security, etc. But is nothing but politicians in bunkers or secure facilities directing people that aren't there to do things, how is that a continuance of government? All chiefs and no braves, does not make a tribe. Just a thought.

    Dale
     
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    1. Old Geezer
      elitism
       
      Old Geezer, Nov 27, 2019
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  21. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning TMT Tactical,

    There are many books on the national response and national recovery from the oil embargoes against the US. I mentioned the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve that was created in response. I do know the responses worked. I'm sure this is basically accepted. I participated in this.

    Not on this thread but I've discussed the responses and current preparations against diseases like influenza, especially H7 N9 strain. I posted here the NY Times article telling of the lethal national danger and what was being worked on. So far the medical folks are busy in preparing immunizations. All will not be protected but some will. The material on addressing these illnesses is out there. Frequently I've posted articles here from Centers For Disease Control. They discuss the public info.

    Also on this thread I mentioned how personnel shortages of military personnel and LEO was ALREADY addressed. I don't remember posting references other than look-up-able names. Erik Prince of Loudon County, Virginia has a large private sector contractor company. He originated "Blackwater". It's still a big contractor under different name. Kroll offered to run Guantanamo Bay's Camp David but was turned down by DOD. I don't know the reason but can only guess it had to be public sector. Still, personnel were addressed in this thread.

    Much material is out there and these private sector firms are recruiting here frequently.
     
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  22. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Dale,

    It's not Aristotelian logic being used. It's raw politics.

    Resources will be allocated to accomplish missions. If the resources can only handle eg 85 tiles in a mosaic of 1,000 tiles, there will be sacrifices for the overall good as determined by the political establishment. Summum Bonum: highest or greater good.

    No different than olden times, the political establishment determines what is to be attempted. Acid heads, drunks, criminals, hustlers might be sacrificed. I know certain AREAS will be sacrificed. The coastal tidal flood plains with residential housing are an example of this.

    The brilliance of the Stafford Act, the replacement to the Civil Defense Act of 1950, is that the state and local governments governments decide on the allocations - usually viewed as the basic personnel and finances - for basic local governmental services such as police, fire and rescue, emergency medical, social services (eg lost child).

    ......

    As an aside, not specifically addressing your above point, but some relevance; I'm hearing that the Federal government might have the Justice Department charge state and local political subdivisions with violations of the civil rights of their homeless. The homeless - and many are also suffering mental and physical ailments - are a legal responsibility of the state and city/county level.
     
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  23. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning TMT Tactical,

    I've seen a number - forgot it but it's very small. I can guess that less than 1-2% of faculty in higher education are veterans.

    You're right that the impressionable young students get "brainwashed" with trash and nonsense - but not all. Some just remain "quiet" until they graduate and get the work ticket.

    Still, there's a trend that has many of these same students studying at the community colleges (2 year programs with transfer eligibility to 4 year schools) with a larger number of veterans on the facilities.

    From a national perspective, it's common enough to hear that America's institutes of higher education are biased toward one political side. Within this national perspective are the views of young citizens who are "street-wise" and know the truth.

    The rest of the story is pending.
     
    1. Old Geezer
      College professors are one-trick ponies; they are genetic inferiors. School is all that they can do. Make great students, then sycophant professors -- the education world is their baby-blanket. They are not doers. They are not men. How else could these inferior dweebs get young women to lie with them? Because they are strong men? What a joke! I've seen these weak sniveling "men" win girls. "Girls", not women. As to the female professors, they are ugly, frigid, depressed, OCD, psych cases. They do not even make for decent lesbians. Can't even medicate them into being semi-normal. Universities are in these days the true madhouses.
       
      Old Geezer, Nov 27, 2019
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    2. Old Geezer
      I'm an involuntary prepper and SHOULD be feared!

      Just today, I was checking the sight-in of a couple of air rifles! And, I raise many of our own vegetables! We have been known to can our own food!

      Fear me!
       
      Old Geezer, Nov 28, 2019
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  24. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Old Geezer,

    I'd add that these "college professors" also represent disguised unemployment.

    They are otherwise unemployable.

    On a different thread, I've hinted that if the California State Univ system, the Univ of Calif system, the New York State univ system and the service academies (Besides most being in the military, they are also just sinecures), the nation would still have overcapacity.
     
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  25. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Evening Pragmatist

    Your examples of "We have done it before" are not equatable to a national grid down, where everybody will be in crisis. No electricity means, no food, water, heat, cooling, waste disposal, traffic control, lighting, communications to the public, no vehicle fuel, no ability to summon the law or any help. No nation on this planet has ever had a nation wide event of this magnitude. As for the mercenary private sector, how many will be able to report to their headquarters and what good would it do if they could? How are these civilian going to be paid, fed, or transported to any needed priority? I seriously doubt there would be a continuation of government. I think it would become a new rise of fiefdoms. What good is oil reserves if no refineries are operational? NYC has a population of 8.7 million people, now without any means to eat, drink or even take a dump. I really don't see the 38K+police officers having any viable affect on 8.7 million panicked people. No fire response, no alarms sounding. No EMT responses, nobody calling. So we have no law enforcement, no emergency medical, no fire department, no public works people, and only a few hospital staff, those caught on duty, when the event happens. By day three, well out of any government organizational response time frame, all the food will be gone or spoiled, All the stores will have been looted. Just about every block, in every city neighborhood will be in lock down and fighting to stay alive. Fires will be breaking out all over, some created by accident and some by pyromaniacs. No fire personnel will be responding, no water pressure. Now I don't doubt the government has some "Master Plan" but they can't even respond and take control of major local disasters within the 3 day time limit, there is no way they can deal with a full fledged National grid down event. The biggest hole in the COG plan and not addressed by any of your examples, is the dangers to the families of all the responders. Note: even single people have boy friends or girl friends or other family members. You don't have to be married to have family. None of your examples required responders to decide to leave their families and friends in a extremely dangerous situation to report to work. That is the death blow to the COG plan. Those who are needed to make the plan work, are going to be a no shows. Just my opinion and like other times in life, I could be wrong. But until you or any other member of the forum, can show me different, then COG is a unobtainable paper plan.
     
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  26. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    God morning TMT Tactical,

    There will be electricity and more than 3 days of food at Vandenburg AFB, California. Sections of the Puget Sound area, like Bremerton with its nuclear submarine base and support facilities like Whidbey Island, will have their off-grid electricity and more than 3 days of food. Here on the Atlantic coast, it's the same but more of off-grid facilities. Personnel staffing, with major exceptions, are adequate. Personnel plans are developed from after-action reports and so far OK.

    The Soviets experienced national problems and so did the Chinese. The US has some "lesser" examples but the problems were national. Do you remember the polio scare of the 1950s ? I once returned to the US and tested positive for Swine Flu. It was a false positive. Madam's wasn't but she recovered. Much public health inquiries and followups occurred. This represents goodness.

    Everyone I know in the emergency responder community, Federal civil service and military have families and have already a long record of splitting up. We have all returned and ready to split up again. The programs we rely on have worked.

    I don't know of a "mercenary private sector". I wrote of private American companies on contract to the US Government agencies. These contractual arrangements originate from colonial times. Letters of Marque are referenced in the US Constitution. There are now newer and more sophisticated programs. One aspect is family arrangements. If you can think of a major problem, others have also and addressed it. I've participated in one of the new programs. At an initial and only meeting of a couple of Virginia forum members at metro-Richmond, I showed our Watcherchris a picture of me in a national mag when overseas as a contractor. When away, my family was probably in better shape than when I was here. The family arrangements have worked before and currently. Next week all Hades might break lose but I'm not here to guarantee the future.

    If you think a Paradise Valley couple sheltering in place is safer and more accommodating than a split-up family locarted in off-grid facilities with health care ... I've mentioned my rehearsal emergency prep of field dental clinics in remote (but beautiful) areas and my return home to family. All travel routes had "support systems" in place.

    TMT, I must avoid some material other than to say I've already made public statements, with references (although not all in this same thread) that some areas and some population segments might/probably will be "written off" / sacrificed in support of a national recovery.

    Arson might help the situation from some perspectives.

    Families have been sacrificed before. It's a part of civilization. If they still have meetings - if members are still on the planet - attend a meeting of the Atomic Veterans.

    I could also be wrong.
     
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  27. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    As to electr grid

    Pragmtst said, "Even in grid down there will be a percentage of personnel arriving at the assignment. Again: not 100% nor expected to be. The 2 variables: personnel and critical infrastructure will be kept in balance. We've done this before and so far, we're still here."

    TMT reply was to effect of MASSIVE uber-grid down scenario.

    Times past, I've mentioned how I've witnessed big industry and big medical using train locomotive engines and towers of diesel fuel to stay afloat during regional power-down events.

    I think most would agree that a national crunch -- say EMP attack -- would be horrific for the better part of the population. There will of course be pockets of power due to proximity to critical assets. Plans have been in place for decades to provide power to what can't be allowed to fail. And too there are areas where the dang power goes off all the time and for days on end (my lot have had to deal with TVA power, Tennessee Valley Authority). Such places and areas of poverty find people who simply have wood stoves and kerosene lamps -- they are preppers and don't know it.

    Here's the big "HOWEVER": Think of the masses of population who are marshmallow people, urban "feed-me" people! They're not going to be able to handle days-long, much less weeks-log, god-forbid months-long power outages. These people WILL decompensate and tragically so. Forget FEMA plans to help. America alone has over 300 million people with the better part of them living in cities. 300,000,000 humans

    What will London do? What will Paris do? Add more and more and more and more ...

    Think about this, cities are "just in time" factories. I've seen "just in time" manufacturing lose supply. It is a train wreck.

    Think about this, what if cities and towns lose water-pumping capabilities due to only having sporadic fuel and electricity for their huge water pumps.
    https://www.naturalnews.com/2018-02...ing-out-of-water-massive-panic-to-follow.html

    We've all seen videos of rioting and looting. What was the reason for these riots? Often just anger over an event -- remember the 1992 Rodney King riots in Los Angeles? I'm sayin' that enormous riots have occurred over petty crap compared to being cut-off from electricity, food, and water. "Society" is going to "lose it".

    Tiny power outage in Manhattan July 2019 caused NY gov Cuomo to condemn the event and promise that such will never happen again. "Changes must be made to ..." all that crap.

    In a real shutdown, things will get very bad. Then, things will get very quiet. I think that we can all agree on this very nasty reality. We can argue over the speed at which it will occur. But again, it will occur. There are stacks of SHTF events that could result in entire regions of any nation to go dark and for a long time.

    The dependencies that have been allowed to be introduced into society & its infrastructure have now resulted in a line of dominoes that goes on for miles and miles.
     
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  28. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good afternoon Old Geezer,

    Good info to ponder......

    This thread is a microcosm of the key regional and national meetings on this overall subject.

    We look at the past, the near past, the current environment's political mood and go from there.

    Toward the end of the Cold War, there were views emerging that a nuclear attack would not completely destroy the US. Who the Hades could establish this as correct or not since it's an approximation of conjecture ?! Does not this thread have mirror images of the competing national views pre-1989 ? Is it worth spending funds for hopeless matters? Is it prudent to do so ?

    We've solved the urban riot problem as realistic as can be. We're loaded with fuel arrangements in place. The major weak link is mass medical for our population of a third of a billion. Even our inadequate public emergency shelters can be expanded to every brick school building in the nation for those not needing medical support.

    Only a couple of nations can launch EMP attacks and a major US response has the non-official Trump emissaries very busy with similar "globe-trotting" made famous by Kissinger. So far the bear and dragon are dining with us.

    A MAJOR weakness to all this is not external but rather internal US matters. How do we close down the aircraft carriers and Connecticut's aircraft engine company without domestic political disturbances? Same for a company in south Ohio and etc,etc,etc. The funds are being collected by the USG but not allocated to the emergency preparedness needs of the nation.

    Can't say too much about London or Paris. They're enroute to join the backwater former great cities - with the London exception if they get out of the EU.
     
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  29. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Afternoon Pragmatist.

    Here is the fly in the ointment. All these places with power will be attacked by the locals who have no power. Now are the personnel at these bases going to fire (shoot) fellow Americans that are demanding access to the power and food supplies on these bases. Also remember many of the starving civilians will also have weapons. The human animal is not going to sit quietly by and starve, while there is a food supply just behind some cyclone fencing. In all your mentioned locations, the starving civilians greatly out number the government personnel. These military bases are not designed to withstand a siege. They survive with the goodwill of the local civilian population. I have visited some of these named military bases and I can guarantee, they cannot secure their perimeter from a siege. Yes civilian contractor are still mercenaries. They have just be given politer names, like calling an illegal alien an undocumented worker, window dressing. Again all your examples did not require the the government first responders to leave their families in immediate harms way, to report for duty. Being deployed during normal times, even during a pandemic, does not equate to abandoning your family during a violent nationwide disaster. How many submariners do you think will set sail, knowing their family and friends have no food, water, or protection from the mobs? Yes military bases will have resources and the civilian population will also know this. I have stated that I would not want to be the only house on the block with power during a national grid down. Well that same logic applies to all the hospitals, businesses and military bases, during a national grid down. We talk about the government taking our prepping supplies during an emergency, well the opposite will apply. The starving, terrified and desperate civilian population know where there is food, water, power and medical supplies. It is just on the other side of the cyclone fence. We have all seen pictures in foreign lands of police and military personnel stepping aside vs. fighting the mobs. During a nationwide grid down, why would anybody try and fight off the mob, to protect the continuance of government? To protect family and friends yes, to protect government assets, not likely. The real issue is human nature vs. paper planning. I am betting on human nature. Will some small enclave of government survive, sure but nationwide, the government will be toast. No disrespect intended, just a difference of opinion.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2019
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  30. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good afternoon TMT Tactical,

    I cannot answer your initial question. I do not know.

    I do know that near here the USMC tested non-lethal intense heat generating machines to eliminate crowds. I've worked in riot control and the old methods such as CS gas also worked.

    Anyone with small arms can demand food and medical care. Guess the results of the demands. They will be told by megaphone to go to the emergency shelter at location A. Otherwise it's an unlawful assembly and matter will, like usual, be dealt with.

    Portions of all military bases I mentioned are designed and prepared to withstand riots. I recall mentioning Vandenburg and Quantico. The Berrigan brothers can no longer bang hammers on submarine hulls in safety presuming they can get that close.

    MPRI - a private sector defense contractor started out with a President/CEO who was a 3 star US Army general. He wasn't nor his employees mercenaries. The replacement companies to Southern Air Transport are not mercenaries. There are many others and they are not mercenaries.

    We have "essential personnel" programs currently in use. The person cannot leave the work station until the replacement arrives. The responders will augment this. I've done both and even ready now on Thanksgiving in case of an emergency.

    Can't discuss submarines going out. I do not know the answer. I do know who shows up at various scheduled veterans meetings and absences are noticed. We help the spouse with errands if needed.

    You have not seen foreign lands where I worked with protected facilities eg China, Russia, Singapore, Israel, Jordan, Panama, ...

    It is NOT human nature versus paper planning. All this is currently going on. It's just not in the news.
     
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  31. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Good afternoon TMT Tactical,
    I cannot answer your initial question. I do not know.

    I do know that near here the USMC tested non-lethal intense heat generating machines to eliminate crowds. I've worked in riot control and the old methods such as CS gas also worked.
    My 6.5 Creedmoor has a range of over 1,000 yards, how about your heat generator or gas cannisters?

    Anyone with small arms can demand food and medical care. Guess the results of the demands. They will be told by megaphone to go to the emergency shelter at location A. Otherwise it's an unlawful assembly and matter will, like usual, be dealt with.
    What emergency shelters, no power, no communication to establish and no adequate supplies or any protection from the thugs or marauders. Remember Katrina?

    I cannot answer your initial question. I do not know.

    Portions of all military bases I mentioned are designed and prepared to withstand riots. I recall mentioning Vandenburg and Quantico. The Berrigan brothers can no longer bang hammers on submarine hulls in safety presuming they can get that close.
    They are designed to withstand a small band of rioters, not millions of starving American.

    MPRI - a private sector defense contractor started out with a President/CEO who was a 3 star US Army general. He wasn't nor his employees mercenaries. The replacement companies to Southern Air Transport are not mercenaries. There are many others and they are not mercenaries.
    Definition: working or acting merely for money or other reward; venal. That pretty much describes independent contractors.

    We have "essential personnel" programs currently in use. The person cannot leave the work station until the replacement arrives. The responders will augment this. I've done both and even ready now on Thanksgiving in case of an emergency.
    There is a program but it will only work if the personnel are willing to follow it. If the relief has not arrived or the essential person decides to leave, are they going to shoot that person? Even if they do, the others will just sneak away. Again normal circumstances no longer apply.

    Can't discuss submarines going out. I do not know the answer. I do know who shows up at various scheduled veterans meetings and absences are noticed. We help the spouse with errands if needed.
    Very commendable but during a grid down, you are going to be real busy protecting your family. This would not be normal times. you would not be safe to go out and assist anybody.

    You have not seen foreign lands where I worked with protected facilities eg China, Russia, Singapore, Israel, Jordan, Panama, ...
    Again, this is not normal time situation. We lost our embassy in Iran to a mob. Any and every facility can be overrun, with enough determine people. Starving frighten people will be desperate and will not be rational.


    It is NOT human nature versus paper planning. All this is currently going on. It's just not in the news.[/QUOTE]

    Again, I do not know of any nation, current or even in the recent past (since electricity became common place) that has had a national grid down situation. Unless that is the best kept secrete in the world, we are talking apples and oranges, Your examples are local or non-violent time variable events. Flu outbreaks, Oil embargoes, do not even get close to the ciaos of a nation wide grid down. A nationwide grid down is a 3 day to nationwide mass violent collapse event, Remember 3 days without water.

    I also don't know of any situation were the United States military had to use and did use lethal force to kill starving, panicked American women and children. How many military personnel do you know that would shoot down unarmed starving women an children? Again human nature vs. paper plans. I am still betting on human nature. I can see too many holes in the Continuity of Government plans.
     
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  32. Rebecca

    Rebecca Expert Member
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    Good day Pragmatist,

    Looking a basic numbers TMT Practical has a really good argument towards COG either not working, or perhaps not being beneficial to the regular man on the street. I am not military or even from the US but it makes for an interesting case study so to speak.

    My question would be, if many of the decision makers / politicians etc are protected along with their families that is great but how would that actually do any good for the regular American public in the case of a complete grid down EMP scenario?

    To set a dramatic stage to my question here I mean no electricity at all in the entire continental USA except in those lucky hardened facilities. No cellphones, no internet, no power, perhaps many less cars and trucks. Gas stations will close, supermarkets etc Roads are grid locked and impassable.It's winter, there is no heating.

    A quick internet search for very general numbers gave me the following:

    If I may focus just on New York City for now.
    There are 8,26 million people living there.
    Approximately 170 000 tourists each day
    Hundreds of thousands who commute in to work.
    So if I may take 8.5 million people as a usable figure for this.
    Together they consume 54 million pounds of food a day. Even rather brashly on my behalf let's claim they waste half of it and only need 27 millions pounds of food to actually survive. That is a massive amount of food every single day.

    We are 9 missed meals from anarchy.

    There are 36 000 police officers in NYC
    There are 2.22 million military personnel in the US including reserves.

    So if the entire US Military was just focusing on New York they would be out numbered approximately 4 to 1 and would need to supply at minimum 27 million pounds of food a day for a reasonably happy population. I fail to see how that would be at all achievable. That 4 to 1 will start looking really bad if they are not willing to keep control with live fire. To shoot teenagers, mothers, grandfathers....

    There are very few things as dangerous as a father with a starving daughter.

    Now if we expand this scenario to a national level.
    We still have the same 2.2 million military and reserves.
    Approximately 1 million federal state and local law enforcement including those working with them but not sworn.
    So 3.2 million trying feed and defend themselves from 324 million or so people. They would need approximately 1.1 billion pounds of food a day. Cold storage has failed. There are no imports. There are no processing facilities running. How big is that stock pile of food??

    324 million starved, thirsty, panicked, becoming irrational people.

    I am not sure I am convinced all the plans, drills, papers and scenarios in the world could plan for 324 million panicking people. And even if only half panic or become violent or demanding, that's still 162 million. I hope I never see 162 million people in that state of mind.

    Preppers may insult the sheeple but those sheeple are very dangerous. And when faced with starvation they will be very clever, armed and dangerous rioting sheeple.
     
  33. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Rebecca,

    Re "a complete grid down EMP scenario";

    I surely do not know.

    I do know that infectious diseases will spread to epidemic levels and am hearing to pandemic levels. Also, there will be the zoonotic infections and diseases - the animal infections transmitted to humans.

    My approach to your question re a complete grid down - EMP scenario is viewing it like receiving national nuclear strikes.

    An EMP means road vehicles with electronics, like cars, trucks, will not function.

    ...

    All of New York City is not critical.
    NYPD, when augmented, is prepared to provide public safety to the critical city sections.
    Military operations have changed for the better. With mobilized reserves and auxiliaries, ... so far nil piracy on the ocean approaches, the southern border is a weak link if I may be blunt about it. It is correctable immediate pre-national alerts.

    After a week without drinking water and no electricity on day one of an EMP grid down, the diseases and aggravated medical conditions deplete the population size. Remember, every day, our national population has a percentage arriving for health care appointments that, when missed, means they are leaving the planet.

    The "324 million" will be smaller. There will be little mobility to walk to off-grid hardened facilities.

    EMP means mass deadly disease.
     
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  34. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    all the food that a big city consumes has to be brought it from the outside, usually on trucks, now if the power grid is down and the filling stations are empty do you think this will still happen, rather unlikely I think.
    the refuse and human waste has to be removed, do you think the refuse and sewage workers will still be at their posts? especially if the ATM's are down and they aren't being paid, again doubtful.
    we had a refuse workers strike some years ago in Birmingham UK and the refuse bags piled up on the street, the stench was overpowering and rats were everywhere, and that was just a union strike not SHTF.
    once the mains services shut down its disease that will kill most folk and a lack of water, long before anyone dies from starvation.
     
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    1. Duncan
      You're absolutely right about disease. As William Shakespeare said in one of his plays:
      "Radiation and mobs? They won't make us say 'see ya',
      "It's gonna by typhus and diarrhea!"
       
      Duncan, Nov 29, 2019
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  35. Sourdough

    Sourdough "ALASKAN"
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    Now you have exposed the "Fatal" flaw in the prepping for survival concept.

    No harm done.......as they will continue to be in constant denial. Which proves that preppers are sheeple, in a state of delusion.

    There is a solution.......but it is not warm and fuzzy nor quickly embraced.
     
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  36. Duncan

    Duncan Expert Member
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    Greetings, all!

    I read all these posts about 'continuance of government' and am not sure how it applies to me and my situation. Let me preface my remarks by saying that I personally think anyone who believes that a collapse of a government and the infrastructure would be a good thing -- no matter how "prepared" he might think he is -- is an idiot.

    Idaho is a large state with a small population; even the Snake River Plain, which is where most of us live, is mostly small towns. Boise-Nampa-Meridian, the three largest cities combined, is only about six hundred thousand, and it's 120 miles (190 km) away.

    My area comprises almost exclusively agriculture and agricultural support industries. Barring a government entity plundering and redistributing our food (which I don't think likely), most of us won't face the food problems of the large cities. On the other hand, a government considering us not worth taking resources from might also not consider us not worth sending out the social insecurity and pension checks to: something which certainly would impact Dawn and me!

    Farmers, I believe -- in addition to being innately preppers -- tend to be more considerate and therefore amenable to sharing with their neighbors than others; this is a positive for folks who worry about continuance of government. Another important demographic is that Idaho has the second largest percentage of Saints in the US, with about 24% Church members statewide, but over 50% her in Twin Falls and even more as you travel east towards Wyoming and Montana. As you might know, most all of them are preppers as a part of their faith, and they don't limit their help to Church members in an emergency.

    All that is well and good, but your average Farmer's Co-op or LDS Stake can't keep the electricity going or the propane/gasoline/diesel flowing. Maybe the Local and State people (and the ING if they aren't already federalized) could keep most of the violence down, but for how long?

    Mr. Pragmatist, you seem to have better insights here on continuance-of-government issues here than the rest of us; what are your views here? How about anyone else? I'd certainly like to learn more.
     
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  37. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good afternoon Duncan,

    Preface: "Social Insecurity" - Love it !

    A thank you for the compliment. After Army service, became a plank owner on a skunk works vessel and was asked to join a special Federal emergency program. Was a Fed reserve emergency manager for 11 years working emergency petroleum supplies via canals and inland waterways. Since, I've been an emergency responder and commentator on FEMA matters.

    It's worth it to glance at:
    http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/25512

    I started out working the Emergency Support Function Annex - Transportation. Much of this thread's "hot button" aspects probably relates to ESF 13 - Public Safety and Security.

    Continuity of Government get developed with the nuclear age here. COG plans were used during WTC 9-11. I can't make statements re the oil embargoes. As an aside, Ferguson, Missouri generated review of the ESF 13 riot control matters if Feds needed. Related: National Security Directive 51 - used during WTC 9-11.

    An example of COG applicable to your area: A zoonotic epidemic of livestock approaches infecting the area humans. The state of Idaho is overwhelmed. The Governor can request COG type assistance eg more veterinarians arriving to your area, more trailer-type clinics arriving to help,.. If it's a national matter eg an EMP, the Id Governor (the emergency folks eg state EM, Idaho National Guard cdr, Chief of State Police, all the rest, will ask/coord with the Feds for resources - personnel and stuff.

    Some emergency facilities are already "hardened" and some are also "off grid". Congress has a few places; one is Greenbrier County, West Virginia. The Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System has a place in Culpepper, Virginia. Key military facilities are also "critical infrastructure". The submariners and the Palace Guard, Quantico are on top of the pile.

    For national emergencies eg this thread's EMP theme, the nation goes on a war footing like FDR ran. The Fed in Culpepper is the fulcrum for workers to get paid, contractors to get checks, foreign obligations met (pre-arrangements do exist for force majeure matters).

    The rest, to abbreviate, is the domestic portion of warfare's civil defense under the new, improved name "homeland security".

    There won't be cross bow game hunting in Rock Creek Park, D.C. and Colonial Parkway, next to the York River with it's Naval Weapons Station Yorktown, will be closed to the public. The Marines will be present in force.

    I've worked as a volunteer emergency responder the shelter portfolio. They are rudimentary - at best - but the basic ones have food (MREs) and water and supposed to (can't write here) Advanced Life Support - the level above Boy Scout - Girl Scout first aid by a RN or Physican's Assistant level, with professional labor support.

    Depending on size and specifics, evacuation orders could tell population segments to relocate to Shelter A. IF thry don't it's a trespass and will be handled as appropriate.

    Our large cities cannot evacuate the "shut-ins" nor address those who are elderly-frail (not supposed to use aforesaid term). This is a subject on the pending "back burner".

    We won't have "beltway sniper" events more than once. This subject is "front-burner" with personnel and $$$.

    The weak link is a national population that's both dumbed down and uneducated - even in the Montgomery, Arlington, Fairfax populations. They are the real products of the "sheltered suburbs" - although they still make many national decisions.

    Again, appreciate the kind words..........
     
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  38. Caribou

    Caribou Master Survivalist
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    This may seem crass and uncaring but, the big cities, you know the ones that can't feed themselves. Well, they are primarily filled with liberals. The big cities are where most of the liberals congregate. A grid down situation could be cleansing.

    Let's switch momentarily from New York to New Orleans (NO). Some got out of Dodge when they were told and the smart ones left before, the really sort ones didn't live below sea level. Most waited for the government to provide buses. Much of the population stayed until after it was too late and then blamed the government for not doing enough. Let's take NO and add to that a national disaster. Now nobody is coming to help.
     
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  39. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    I didn't fear the government until the Clintons used their powers to declare war on people that were legally doing business that the liberals disapproved of. They murdered people all over and it was just covered up with lies. The government is only safe as long as they are overseen by people with the ability to remove them from office by force if necessary if they fail to act in the best interests of the country and within the bounds of the constitution. The Clintons came very close to the edge. After Waco they had to back off. I was not alone in being ashamed of my government and in fear of a government gone off the rails.
     
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  40. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    First and foremost, I respect you and your posts. I do think it is very important for preppers to read both side of this debate. You qualifications speak for themselves and mine are just my personal gut feelings. So lets carry on the discussion / debate.


    Again I wish to thank you Pragmatist for your assistance in facilitating this discussing. Weather I am right or you are correct, it is important for all to give this topic some thought. You have made some outstanding points and I hope I have provided reasonable counter points. I also hope more member will join in the discussion and provide a broader view and more opinions. We only learn from what we did not know.
     
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  41. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    there is no such thing as FEMA in the UK, Civil Defence was abandoned in the 1980s, there is some Government documentation in case of emergencies but TBH every time something happens the response always seems to be "too little too late", its always a matter of clearing up the mess rather than avoiding the event in the first place, for example flooding on the Somerset Levels which was caused by the lack of dredging, saving pennies which cost lots of pounds after the event.
    There is also the fact that more resources are spent on what the London Elite wants, usually in the London and surrounding areas rather than the working class areas in the North and far South.
    post SHTF I am not expecting The 7th Cavalry to come thundering over the hill to our rescue, far from it.
     
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  42. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning TMT,

    You're providing valuable material for thought and then transfer to pending plans of action.

    This forum is a"focus group" like the politicians use. The various views are distilled in their presentation.

    Our nation has some functional areas where we are strong - and vice -versa. We have some geographic areas with sturdy programs and vice - versa.

    Nationally, other than to say "We're still here", our successful recovery from the WWII loss of the Philippines, the 1960s urban riots, the oil embargoes, the loss of Allies, ... a pendingnational attack by non-conventional means ..... It's a Donald Rumsfeld "Known Unknown".

    As a prepper and in public service as a Responder, my fear is not enemy militaries, It is major domestic US population components throughout the government organizations and much of the rest of society.
     
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    1. TMT Tactical
      Pragmatist your post on COG, started the gears turning and brought to light the strong points of the government and it's weak points. I sincerely hope as many members as possible join in this conversation and post the Pro & Con of keeping the government viable and what would it take. In my humble opinion, this forum is better than any "Think Tank" because we will speak our minds and nothing is risked by being honest. Most "Think Tanks" have a certain built in bias and who wants to prove that the bias is mistaken, could be career limiting.
       
      TMT Tactical, Nov 30, 2019
  43. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    if it gets to that stage then its probably at the very least an economic collapse(think Zimbabwe-where the ruling elite got fat and rich and the masses starved) and more likely SHTF.
    in that case its a matter of self reliance and look after yourself.
    my area seems to be very similar to yours in that it is predominately farming, it is also a long way(in British terms) from any big city or the capital.
     
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  44. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good afternoon Lonewolf,

    Want to respond to something to clarify something...not sure where you wrote. This thread will surely work.

    Re EMP:

    I learned the same re EMP can/will disable the electrical/electronic stuff and not necessarily human life.

    There might have been the absence of working definitions when I was replying to Rebecca and TMT regarding "grid down" matters and related follow-on aspects pertinent to preppers and the overall population.

    From what I understand, large scale EMPs, that would affect the 48 contiguous states could only be produced by large scale nuclear attacks. Again, I am talking about continental-size matters and not a huge lightning storm closing down an area or region.

    A - national grid down - means a nuclear attack and besides no electricity for high rise apartment buildings and their elevators, illumination, etc, there would be the other components of the nuclear attack such as the "ultra high explosive damage such as a relocated Chicago lakefront drive, the radiation with the gamma rays. We know of this from the Cold War's fall out shelter programs. Gamma rays, from memory require protection well beyond a house or apartment.

    This is why I was saying that a - national EMP - would produce a smaller national population.

    Only those in decent health could walk to an emergency shelter and few have bicycles and/or small sail or paddle-oar water vessels if they have the water routes.

    Much of the casualties will be traceable to disease and lack of health care.

    I think I already posted this link here at forum already but redundancy has value: www.empcommission.org

    ...

    Understand that the UK closed down their Civil Defense program.
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
    1. TMT Tactical
      Pragmatist, It is also my understanding (layman knowledge) that a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection --- spelling?) could also cause a national grid down. This would blank out the USA but not put us on a war footing. I use a grid down event as the most difficult disaster for any town, village, city, county . state or nation to deal with. Extremely fast developing from the beginning and a very limited to no warning. To me, this is the Mother of all Disasters. All other disasters are local, or provide the time needed to respond. Now this is going to surprise many but I do think there is a way for the government--- if done correctly --- to survive even a CME and a complete grid down scenario.
       
      TMT Tactical, Nov 30, 2019
  45. Rebecca

    Rebecca Expert Member
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    Would a HEMP (High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse) caused by strategic detonation of nuclear weapons in the upper atmosphere not also cause significant EMP damage at ground level?

    Leaving significant damage to electrical infrastructure/devices/vehicles but the population initially unhurt.

    Diseases, lack of medical care, water etc would quickly take a big toll on the population but at least at the start the full number of people would be alive.
     
    Alaskajohn and TMT Tactical like this.
    1. TMT Tactical
      A HEMP event would most likely result in a state of war and then a massive nuclear exchange. There would be massive deaths immediately. HEMP or EMP is much lower on my chart of likely events. A solar EMP is more likely and that is where we lose the grid but not a massive loss of life ---- at first.
       
      TMT Tactical, Nov 30, 2019
  46. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning TMT,

    I've heard of CME - just by sitting in lectures, conferences, seminars. I have no background to distill it down as to what it means to me as being an important event of some sort ... like a chemical explosion, many school children running out of building with respiratory failure, ... just don't have "a handle" on CME.

    I do know that a "national grid down" event would activate the national responses, eg closing down highways and other roads even to those walking, hiking, changing hospital/health care facility schedules eg minimal surgeries and these only for those in work force, - the rest of the disruptions to routine life activities.

    Ref "war footing": Would guess that if no declared statement of some sort, national authorities would be on the "stand by" don't leave the emergency operation center even for a critical meeting. Just get ready in case warning lights start flashing, etc.

    The definition of "survival" comes into play. If the children in California are lost, the East Coast parents might not be functioning citizens although they have vital signs and are mobile around the house.

    I hope you're right.
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
  47. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Rebecca,

    I know only the basics of HEMP and at my level cannot provide any statement of value regarding "significant EMP damage".

    My "prepper" preparations and my emergency responder preparations to activate myself and leave my BOP shack by driving or walking have common denominators. If I can walk out of here to my nearest public road, I'd start walking with my loadout gear. I wouldn't know the actual situation until I meet my colleagues. My colleagues include some knowledgeable people but even they wouldn't definitely know the overall situation.

    Now, do note that the US (includes Canada) population is different than that of the Cold War atomic era. Today, we have an older population that is less knowledgeable in the basics and less personally/family prepared. We still have an inadequately-staffed emergency responder community. Without electricity, "response" means walking somewhere. The walking will be extremely limited to those in decent shape and outfitted for the event. It's not that many. If dead animals and humans are not buried, contagious diseases magnify very rapidly....and even those responders walking to an emergency assignment facility, can become casualties.
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
  48. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    it dosent really matter how it is caused but a grid down event would kill many people because they no longer know how to respond to it, I also think many people are afraid of darkness and also silence.
    I grew up on power cuts and we didn't go into panic mode we just got out the candles and the storm lanterns , a grid down is just an extended/permanent power cut.
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
  49. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    The U.S. Military and Fed have tens of thousands of electrical generators. They also have the military means to ensure that diesel fuel gets to these generators, whether by air or ground. Automobiles and trucks will be scraped off roadways to clear ground transportation. The coal trains will run or the military will make sure they run.
    https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/truman-orders-army-to-seize-control-of-railroads

    Targeted assets WILL get what is needed to run them and protect them. Thing is that as in triage, many assets and people will be written-off. Our urban areas are simply too bloated and too needy to be protected. Rioting & looting anarchy is guaranteed, but it will die out, maybe literally so. Urbanites will get aid, however it will be VERY paltry and their lifestyles will sink into what many of them will not be able to endure. Urbanites with rural family-ties may succeed in getting out. Death rates will be mind-numbing.

    Moving dependent people to camps will occur, but odds are that the process and the results will be nothing short of a disaster.

    Due to water & sewer services being intermittent at best, think of the plague of dysentery that will occur within every area of population concentration. Dysentery will kill far more than violence. Starvation will begin, then diseases will finish off those weakened. Urban and most suburban families have zero water filtration devices and would have to improvise water purification methods. Without power, they'll have to build fires to boil their water -- obtained from contaminated rivers and streams.

    Rural areas will do better. Any area possessing self-sufficiency attributes will do better. Urban collapse will have serious negative impacts on rural areas. Nevertheless, in self-sufficient areas, the "getting by" factor will exceed by a rather high degree that of urban areas where FAR too many people have been jammed together. Post SHTF, urban areas left standing will not be a place where you want to exist.

    =========================================
    This'n'that info:

    Military power generators for sale

    https://greenmountaingenerators.com/

    https://greenmountaingenerators.com/diesel-generators-mep002a-mep003/all-military-generators/

    A bit of old data, 2009
    https://olive-drab.com/od_electronics_mep.php

    FEMA providing power to hospitals
    https://www.fema.gov/media-library-...e/Healthcare_Facilities_and_Power_Outages.pdf
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
  50. Dalewick

    Dalewick Master Survivalist
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    Pragmatist, I believe I understand your perspective of COG and how things should progress after a TEOTWAWKI event. I have attended COG training events as a soldier and civilian and worked SAR (Search and Rescue) after national disasters. The issue I have always had with COG plans and tried to bring to table a couple times is the supposition that the defenders and first response people will be there. I consider that a flawed assumption.

    Soldiers and sailors will obey legal orders from there commanders. Of that there is no doubt. But, the military takes dependents into no consideration. Yes, often lip service is given about what is being done for military dependents. Every soldier and sailor knows that there dependents are there responsibility and help will not be forthcoming if those dependents are in need. Under normal circumstances, military members suck it up. a TEOTWAWKI event would be anything but normal.

    As a vet (U.S. Army) I know soldiers are used to being hungry, tired, stressed and miserable. It's what your trained for. It's not what you want for your family. They're not part of the agreement when you swear that oath.

    What I never saw factored in is what happens when those dependents are starving and/or are in danger. Bases would be in lock down. No one comes or goes without written orders. Senior NCO's and officers dependents are usually on base, but there would be no deliveries to the PX or commissary, so no food on the table. There are MRE's stored on bases, but supplies depend on the primary mission of the division housed there. Regardless, it would only be enough for a couple months at the best and those will be for service members only.

    When the trucks stop delivering food, fuel and goods. When the chain of command breaks down because those NCO's and officers are trying to care for there families. When soldiers are abandoning their post and deserting or just AWOL, trying to save their loved ones. When a pandemic or other natural disaster makes our world come to a stand still, how is there a continuance of government?

    The government does make plans and would be able to deal with many things. But Murphy has a large monkey wrench and knows exactly where in the works to throw it.

    Dale
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
    1. TMT Tactical
      And That my friend is the critical link in the plans. In all past emergencies and even war footing events, the family was safely (as safe as normal is) tucked away. In a national grid down, the family is now part of the equations vs, being a stressed spectator. Even in time of war, the soldiers go off to fight, with the understanding their families were in relative safety. Dale you made many good points. The break down of command and resupply. The personnel abandoning their posts to take care of family. Lost communication and FUBAR in general. Soldiers /air personnel /sailors do not get a lobotomy when they take the Oath and family will always rank number one to those that do take the oath. Great post Dale.
       
      TMT Tactical, Dec 2, 2019
      Caribou, Dalewick and lonewolf like this.
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