Is The Financial Crash Coming More Quickly Now?

Discussion in 'Financial Planning' started by LastOutlaw, Aug 10, 2019.

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  1. LastOutlaw

    LastOutlaw Master Survivalist
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    We have all heard that there is a financial crash coming at some point. The stock market has been manipulated for many years now, the banks were never cured of the "too big to fail" issue in fact the big ones swallowed up the smaller failures and got even bigger. I have a friend who pays very close attention to the market and other things that could signal that the inevitable crash is coming Here are a few things that this person has pointed out to me recently.

    1. Gold and Silver are steadily climbing recently. ( In the past they have been able to push down the price of gold and silver but according to some online they no longer can hold it down. Gold was just barely below $1500.00 an ounce this morning and Silver is climbing at a quicker rate and was at just below $17.00 per ounce.
    I have always heard that when they can no longer hold the PMs from climbing it is a sure sign that the crash is on it's way.

    2. Stock Market keeps dropping. Some people online who work in the market are claiming that they keep trying to push the market back up but it keeps falling again and again.

    3. Bond yield curve is inverted in numerous countries and more are to join the list as well.
    The US Bond market yield is inverted in all time frames except the very very long time frame and the very very short time frames.

    4. Food prices are continuing to rise. I've heard we are headed toward food shortages partially due to weather issues in the Midwest this past winter and spring but we also are having issues caused by the financial war with China and inflation on the rise.

    5. Numerous banks in the EU and other places seem to be having hard times. Deutsche Bank recently made huge cutbacks.
    Negative interest rates seem to be coming more quickly and people's deposits may begin to be gobbled up at some point soon.

    Now, once again the PTB seem to be heavily pushing to get control of citizens firearms again.
     
  2. LastOutlaw

    LastOutlaw Master Survivalist
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  3. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Last Outlaw,

    Not sure if more quickly. It's being tied to synchromesh with the US national election, the China squabble and the known unknowns like in the Middle East.

    Your friend provides accurate material.

    Re 2; it's actual REAL VALUE of the listed companies on the stock markets are inflated values.

    Re 3; of course the bond yield curves dissolve much of the public debt obligations like bloated pensions. Think CALPers.

    Re 4; I do believe food stockpiles are in decent shape. Of course, these inventories won't provide for a chicken in every pot, a pizza in every oven, ... Our ancestors survived and so can we. Plus orange peels and fish heads are nutritious. So is cricket gumbo. The Chesapeake Bay will be depleted by many fishing without a license. Sauteed snake and road kill are dietary supplements.

    Re 5; Don't forget the EU banks now have a China presence nearby eg Athens, Vienna, ... Anticipate changes.

    Retirees can amplify on "people's deposits" ... "gobbled up". Omit "may" and "soon".
     
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  4. Sourdough

    Sourdough "ALASKAN"
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  5. LastOutlaw

    LastOutlaw Master Survivalist
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    The problem with that article is it has the name Elizabeth Warren in it.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2019
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  6. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good afternoon Last Outlaw,

    Read articles for the title, phrases in article, dates/time lines.

    This is applicable even to Wall Street Journal, Investors Daily and Financial Times.

    Do personal analysis.
     
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  7. LastOutlaw

    LastOutlaw Master Survivalist
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    Sorry didn't mean to quote your post.
     
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  8. Sonofliberty

    Sonofliberty Master Survivalist
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    Look, they have to crash the economy. It is the only way to make us go "cashless" so they can really start charging negative interest rates among other reasons. It's going to happen, just a question of when.
     
    1. TMT Tactical
      Tried to like your post but after two long timed out tries gave up, so consider it liked, if this works.
       
      TMT Tactical, Aug 12, 2019
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  9. poltiregist

    poltiregist Master Survivalist
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    This thread leaves me in the dark . I am not a financial investor at least not at this point . But the U.S. Dow jones Indicator keeps setting record highs . The job market is probably the best it has ever been in U.S. history . Some other countries markets are doing badly . It seems they have been kicked off the U.S. charity wagon and they ain't happy . Yes the economy is quickly crashing in some countries but the U.S. is doing great . Perhaps the countries doing badly is so far down the socialist trail that they don't know how to get out and work for a living . Or perhaps their countries population has been supported by another country and their population has out grown their ability to produce enough food to support their population . As we discussed on another thread some countries may have hit critical mass and are staring at a population die off . The U.S. is seeing thousands of people each day coming from failed socialist governments , trying desperately to enter the U.S. because they know our government system works . True we have socialist within our own ranks that want socialism and want to crash the economy to bring on socialism . We see their vile hatred of the U.S. economy and its success from the Democrats / Communist on a daily bases .
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019
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  10. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Last Outlaw and all,

    Yesterday, read an interesting letter to the editor in the Monday, 12 Aug Wall Street Journal re "inverse yield curve". WSJ is paywall but believe letter is worth practicing my typing for our forum's benefit.

    All between my dashed lines are quote. Full attribution to WSJ.
    ==================

    Your editorial gets it wrong about "The Confusing Federal Reserve" (July 30). You argue that the Fed has no reason to cut rates with "equities at new highs, credit premiums are low , and inflation (showing) signs of a modest comeback." You continue with: 'The job market has stayed strong and so has consumer spending.' All of this data are irrelevant. The only relevant piece of of economic information is the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, currently below 2%. With the Fed funds rate at approximately 2.40% the Fed is intentionally inverting the yield curve.
    ...
    ...
    ...

    Jeff Feldman, PhD, CFP
    Rochester, NY

    ====================
     
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  11. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Poltiregist,

    Don't feel lonely, bewildered, not understanding, ... Most all of Middle America cannot follow this stuff...and this includes our financial industry folks. For a benchmark or reference point, these financial maneuvers by the Fed are like trying to prep a living will in Virginia. The living will documents are distorted on purpose to require the citizen to hire professional labor or else the project fails. That letter to editor of WSJ I posted above shows that the financial market watchers don't know what's going on.

    The financial market indicators - their criteria - have been changed. The job market statistics have been distorted. Note that pre-WWII, jobs were mostly private sector; today about half of the US population gets a government check of some sort.

    Yes, indeed, the EU, Japan and South Korea have been removed from the US charity wagon and they refuse to accept the loss of their month-long vacations.

    Food production is not the problem. Socialism is.
     
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  12. Sourdough

    Sourdough "ALASKAN"
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  13. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Wonder if California pension funds had invested in Argentina? They are already severely underfunded and a big loss would really hurt.
     
  14. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    IF there is a market crash it will probably, in the end, have a positive effect. Liberals and their insanity can only operate in an economy of plenty. When a conservative has plenty of money they tend to just be complacent and let the liberal element run wild. When their pockets go empty they are not going to be nearly as willing to support the illegals and the lazy in the rich means that places like California provides. Hells golden BELLS, illegal aliens in California get things for free that citizens can't get.

    When things get rough the limp-wristed liberals are going to be hard put to convince people to let their kids starve with the parasites thrive. The conservatives in America need a kick in the butt to get them off their butts and a lot more politically active. It is just wrong that Black people that only represent 10% of the voting population have so much power. If we would hold the feet of our elected officials to the fire most of our problems could be easily fixed.

    Build a wall AND a fence and mine the land in between and shoot on sight anyone coming over the wall. Gather and throw out all illegal aliens. Streamline the process that will allow people that want to come here and work legal entry. Decriminalize drugs use and offer treatment and free drugs for the addicted. Life sentences for selling hardcore narcotics. Life Sentences for multiple violent crime offenders. Jobs for the poor and NO welfare. Free meals twice a day EVERY DAY for kids under 18 at schools. Free health care for all kids as long as they are in school or under the age of 18.

    Real training for jobs and do away with the insane useless liberal college system. A mechanical engineer has no use or need for Shakespear or knowing how to diagram a sentence!!! Most kids need real-life skills. Teach them things like how to balance a checkbook, count change, figure their gas milage and then based on their abilities and inclinations trade schools instead of a few useless semesters in college learning absolutely nothing that will help them enter the job market. I have watched so many kids come out of school with either no degree or a useless liberal arts degree without a usable minor end up right where my daughter was while she was going to college...assistant manager in a burger joint! That is not the job that you and or your parents went deep into debt to get. A cousins kid got a liberal art degree with a minor in art appreciation. His only hope of getting her out of the house is for her to find a man. There just aren't many art appreciation jobs out there and she is TOTALLY unacquainted with ANY sort of manual labor. He thought I was cruel to make my Daughter work both before she went to college and while she was there. LOL, I wanted her to KNOW why she was in college and it wasn't to party. She graduated quit her job and got a much better one. She knew that she didn't want to make a career out of foodservice or Truck stops!!!

    I have hopes that if we get knocked down that the strong will arise and take back the reins of our country. The weak only rule when the strong allow it out of laziness and greed.
     
  15. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Master Survivalist
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    Let's check the barometer. Silver has gone from $14/oz to $17/oz in just the past few weeks.

    Wife and I took short driving trip for a long weekend. Drove approx 45o miles & never left the state. Bought some silver coins, antique kerosene lamp (so easy to carry!), non-electric tools, inexpensive 9mm hollow point ammo $16/50-count box. Great meals! Some fine beer & ale made locally. Went to one small town's summer get-together; had some dynamite cars 1960's and prior, 490+ cubic inch engines, paint can pistons. Some restored pick-ups were to-die-for. Saw a bunch of silver dinnerware. Dealers are really wanting to buy silver and gold right now.

    Upcoming 2020 American elections are going to generate some seriously dangerous hormone levels. I'm thinking violence is inevitable. With the violence, we'll see even greater instability, therefore there will be an economic hit. We'll see how much. I have stopped attempting to predict such matters. We entered the Land of Crazy quite a while ago.

    Me, evil me, I want to see the urban collectivists get attacked by the people they worship; it is part of the dogma set of the anti-religion religion of Secular Humanism to worship such folk. I'd pay a $50 bill to buy a 30 minute video of a liberal neighborhood being looted by some "oppressed" inner city residents. It would be ever so precious to interview some leftists who have just been assaulted and looted.

    America's coming Civil War II will cause an economic depression.
     
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  16. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning TexDanm,

    ROFL; "diagram a sentence" ! How will we compete against the EU and China without this knowledge ?! Don't forget conjugating verbs out to the pluperfect tense; "I will shall have gone to the store to buy her a box of something".

    Real life skills have been subdued and removed from the education system so as to make the labor cartels more immune. Our overall "education" system is really a FDR Civilian Conservation Corps make-work program. It's labor force is overpaid and there's much overcapacity - if I even need to mention this.

    Our philosophy and "theology" (when breaking it out of "philosophy" is very similar. The only 2 big differences are wildlife in yard. I will not - nor could consume my wild rabbits with those beautiful eyes. I am a product of Warner Bros. Studios and Walt Disney Productions ! (2): I use different definitions. I am NOT a conservative. It's really a meaningless term and too politically charged to help. It hinders. I view you and others here as also not being "conservatives". You're presenting material assigning the definition "classical liberal" and exercising pragmatic realism.

    The MOST IMPORTANT point in your above document: "The conservatives ... need ... and a lot more politically active". Our cause is lost because the US domestic enemy is politically active. Plus: guess who funds them ?! Think about the Yuma, Arizona refugee problems. Red Cross, CRS, HIAS and the rest don't help the downtrodden (with or without documents and extra photocopies) for free. My rural county's public library has a community room. It's frequently packed solid with groups pushing an agenda in their publicly-provided meeting place and staging area. Guess who pays for the comfortable air-conditioning in the room !

    Personally, I appreciate art and patronize artists (at my level of appreciation and finances) AND I know why art critic Anthony Blunt lost his "Sir" label. He was active in politics. Our cousins east of us can explain better than me.
     
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  17. LastOutlaw

    LastOutlaw Master Survivalist
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    From this morning's fox news:
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/yield-curve-inversion-signals-recession

    Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red
    The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.

    The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.

    “Historically, the 2-10 has had better predictive ability of recession than equities,” Sri Kumar, president of the Santa Monica, California-based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told Fox Business.

    “If you depended on equities to tell you whether you are entering into a recession you did not do well. For example, October, November of 2006, exactly one year before the Great Recession began, the 2-10- inverted. Equities did well in the first half of 2008 when we were in a recession and oil prices hit a peak in May of 2008 when we were very much in a recession.

    “Do not depend on equities or oil price to tell you that you are in a recession. You’re probably not going to do well as a leading indicator.”
     
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  18. LastOutlaw

    LastOutlaw Master Survivalist
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    So today Rush was trying to downplay this and saying it is just the MSM trying to make Trump look bad. I have been watching the Bond yield for quite some time and it has been headed this way for quite a while. Now a lot of the people on-line that have been talking about this such as Lynette Zane, Greg Manarino and Greg Hunter have stated for quite some time that the bond yield is the thing to keep an eye on. They also have pointed out that it will be a dead giveaway to coming calamity. MSM is just starting to mention it today and their talk seems to have affected the stock market as well. Quite a big drop today. Now I do agree that they are trying to make Donald Trump look bad before the election by saying it is caused by Trump's tarrifs which is not the case. Manarino has said for quite some time however that asking for the FED to drop interest rates is no cure but only more stringing along the problem and propping it up. In fact according to him they need to raise rates and begin the suffering to work through the crash. There will be suffering in order to cure the problem. The question is will the suffering begin before the election or after the election? It will come at some point.
     
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  19. Sonofliberty

    Sonofliberty Master Survivalist
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    IMO, Rush is just a mouth piece for the RNC. Not as much as Hannity, but still. I miss Boortz.
     
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  20. Miskondukt

    Miskondukt Member
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  21. LastOutlaw

    LastOutlaw Master Survivalist
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    Isnt that interesting? Doesnt take into account that they may want to crash and hang the blame on DJT though. Should be interesting to see how it plays out.
     
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  22. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    If a worst-case scenario is a financial crash, is this 100% badness ?

    My guess is that the inverse yield curve is the Team Trump ... er ...... the Fed's ... plan to effective wipe out the public pension fund obligations.

    My guess indirectly relates to the US-China tariff wars. The real objective is to get the US economy back under control. Currently, the Defense budget, huge and bloated is SMALLER than the debt-service budget. This is what is being addressed by Team Trump.
     
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  23. LastOutlaw

    LastOutlaw Master Survivalist
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    Happened to be driving this morning /afternoon and caught Rush on the radio again. He was talking again about yesterday's market drop and how today non one is talking about a recession even though yesterday it was all they were mentioning. So according to him and a few callers yesterday was a test to see if they can utilize the press to cause a stock market crash and the consensus was that they can and will do so sometime next year before the election to make Trump look bad and lose re-election. Seems a bit far fetched to me but who knows.

    Ihave heard in the past that they all know it has to crash to be reset and move everyone into negative interest rates in order to push all into the new digital currency that allows them to control everyone. It is possible that the PTB would do this right before the next election to screw over President Trump.

    He also talked about this painting that was in Epstein's New York home of Bill Clinton in a blue dress.

    https://nypost.com/2019/08/14/epste...-of-bill-clinton-in-dress-heels-in-townhouse/

    a12798e1ff4b048a788ce70a1e667f15.jpeg
     
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  24. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    every election year for as long as I can remember if a Republican is incumbent then the Democrats with the assistance of the media tries to make it seem like the end of the world unless you can get the Republican out of the White House. The Republicans try to do the same thing but without the help of the media if there is a Democratic incumbent.

    I personally have lost faith in our election process and suspect that Trump will probably be the last truly elected President we will have. When the government itself gets as involved as they did when Trump was elected the process is almost useless. THEN if the politicians and the Washington Establishment doesn't LIKE who is elected they then try to impeach to overturn the will of the American People.

    I personally think that we would do better if we selected our Government officials from among all registered voters by a national or Statewide lottery. At least then we would have a small CHANCE that we might get someone that was honest and wanted to do what was good for the country rather than what is best for their PARTY and the job security of the Washington Leaches. As it is now there is almost ZERO chance of that happening in a two-party electoral system. Trump was an aberration that will never happen again. He FINANCED his own run and ended up not beholding to the party ticket that he ran on. The Republicans have refused to do any of the things that they promised, LIKE THAT IS NEW OR SURPRISING, and have done all that they could to cripple Trump's presidency.

    Our elected official's first loyalty is to their party and will do whatever it takes to benefit them. Then their second allegiance is to the Washington establishment and padding their nest. Third and fourth are personal maneuvers to enrich themselves and their sycophants and that is about it. At NO point do they actually care about the country or the people in it except as it affects their main priorities...
     
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