Nuclear Fallout

Well before we and our enemies had satellites, we had ballistic missiles. The answer lies within the launch and the trigonometry. My trig professor owned fully automatic weapons. This was in the 1970s. If one can do the math, they can hit a target without satellite guidance. We could and that is NOT up for debate. Got a bunch of stories. Have had a bunch of friends who worked high security. I've been in meetings where we were told, "Can't even tell your wives and girlfriends. Is that understood?!" One wasn't even allowed into the meetings if not trusted / pre-vetted. Some 4+ years ago, some of this intel was leaked. Still, I can't talk about what was discussed in such meetings -- not even to my loved ones -- not even my wife. My word is my bond. Plus, the intel leaked was incorrect. I'm no fan of the enemies of America, USA -- the real one, the Constitutional one. I'd not share with this current regime, because they are not Americans.

And oh by-the-by, biden is brain-dead, he's no more the president than I am the Easter Bunny.

.

 

Old Geezer..is correct about without satellite guidance....and an inertial navigation platform was around long before satellite guidance....it is not new...but only made better by advancements in technology and miniaturization.

Another form of independent navigation system often used on aircraft in the olde days and even in the larger helicopters is Doppler Radar..

Not dependent on any received signal....

Doppler Radar is not much used now days...with the satellite systems available.


For those of you not familiar ...the Military has it's own dedicated satellite navigation systems...separate from your GPS....and these systems are not new...but were around before GPS was available to the public.

Warning....do not discard your maps.....for under certain conditions satellite GPS systems can be shut down...learn to read a map as a back up system.

I have maps in my car and truck.. I don't even know how to work a GPS system....not particularly interested.


What the military sometimes does is operate both satellite systems and inertial guidance systems. The satellite systems are more accurate...but what is often done is to correct any errors in the inertial systems by a satellite based correction.

The advantage of the inertial systems is no dependence on a received signal ....if conditions so warrant.


Oh...one more thing if I have not already told the members..here...

With increased targeting accuracy...huge warheads are no longer needed...
Huge nuclear warheads were because in the early days...accuracy was not that good....;.and hence to make up for a lack of accuracy in the delivery systems....navigation systems ..a large warhead made up the difference in accuracy.


We ...some of us ...know this because today they will often ask ...not what building do you want to hit...but which window in that building do you want the weapon to enter..hit.

Even conventional bombs are getting smaller when delivered by aircraft because of better accuracy...in the delivery/targeting systems.


Watcherchris
Not an Ishmaelite.

 

Basic intro to GPS.
https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/space_...S satellites circle the,set two times per day.

Off topic aimed at Chris; as a radio ham have you listened in to the ISS? Looked at EME (Earth Moon Earth) bounce? The ISS downlink is on 437.800-MHz which you can use a Baofeng to listen to. How about the dedicated ham radio Low Earth orbit satellites for sat comms? I've not done any of that yet but its all on my ham radio' to do' list.

20m FT8 is really good at the moment, I'm on air now as I type this, getting reports from East coast USA down into Florida.

 

Max Rigger...yes..I have listened to the ISS and occasionally some of the local repeaters would link into the Space Shuttle ..and I remember hearing the Space Shuttle in Re Entry ...through their black out period before re entering our atmosphere.

I have not tried moon bounce but am aware of it. Mostly I use VHF/UHF for local traffic and 75 and 40 meters to keep tabs with my friend some 400 miles to the west of me in Tennessee.

Keep Two Baofeng walkie talkies and spare batteries in my locker at work...and several Baofengs here at home....spare batteries too. Also in that locker are two 42.5 inch Abree folding antennas...just in case..
The factory walkie talkie antennas are marginal at best..
Better antennas are available to those who know how to use them.

Also have four HF rigs.....and a couple put away in aluminum foil ..in military type metal ammo boxes. Three rolls of 12 gauge stranded wire...500 foot long each...put away as well.

Just in case.

Several Tuners as well.

For the price...it is difficult to beat those Baofeng walkie talkies..

Are there better radios out there....absolutely ..but not for that price..

Watcherchris
Not an Ishmaelite.

 

quite correct on that lonewolf ...quite correct.

Even with the factory antennas....my Baofeng walkie talkies will go a bit farther ...but not much further.

A better more efficient antenna helps a great deal.


One of the ways you know more of the professional gear...walkie talkies is that on the better models like the Baofengs ...you can unscrew the antennas and thus replace with a more efficient antenna.

Most of the walkie talkies purchased in most stores by the public...you cannot unscrew the antennas...

That tells you that those rigs are for the more unknowledgeable and inexperienced public.. that is a big tell tale as to what kind of radio they are...limited use.

I have a couple of those from many years back but mostly use the Baofengs today. They are too limited for my needs.

My Baofengs will work on the frequencies used by those family/GMRS type radios one sees in most stores.....I can manually program them into the Baofengs.

Watcherchris.
Not an Ishmaelite.

 

Broad rule of thumb for hand held radio range is its 'line of sight plus a bit'. With the 'walki talkie' when you transmit the signal goes straight up (thats why you can talk to the ISS) but does not spread out a lot hence pretty much line of sight.

Radio hams use repeater stations, the repeater receives your transmission and resends it on increasing your range. Not much use post SHTF if they run on mains power but some run on solar so they stay up and running for a time.

 

I think you are correct here lonewolf...

However...

While I do not know much about them...I am looking into and researching these things called a power station.

I am interested in one which can be solar charged and can put out 12 volts including a cigarette lighter adapter.. and also has an inverter built in which can go to AC voltage to power regular household devices.

I expect these gadgets can be pricey...hence doing more homework on this item before making a decision..

Watcherchris
Not an Ishmaelite.

 

"13 Best Long-Range Walkie-Talkies (Two-Way Radios) of 2023"

https://eatelkmeat.com/gear/long-range-walkie-talkie/

"If you need to communicate over long distances without a cell signal, a high-quality set of long-range walkie-talkies or two-way radios is necessary (unless you’ve mastered smoke signals). I’ve used long-range communication devices for years in the military, working security, hotel operations, and also in the mountains while camping and hunting.

"No, these long-range walkie-talkies aren’t going to cover 100, 200, 500, or 1,000 miles like some of the more powerful radio frequencies, but they can reach up to 50 miles depending on your surroundings.

"It’s also worth noting that we’ve opted to recommend only portable walkie-talkie-style two-way radios instead of the more bulky rectangular versions meant for dashboards and desktops."

===========================

YouTube videos concerning DIY Faraday cages:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=diy+faraday+cage

Here are links for Faraday cages for sale and for the materials with which one can use to make your own.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Faraday+Cage+for+sale&t=newext&atb=v320-1&ia=shopping

----------

 

""No, these long-range walkie-talkies aren’t going to cover 100, 200, 500, or 1,000 miles like some of the more powerful radio frequencies, but they can reach up to 50 miles depending on your surroundings."

If your on top of a mountain and can see 50 miles your walkie talkie will work. Ground level with no buildings/forest and you'll get a handful of miles on a good day. Town or city and you might get a couple of miles.

In the UK my nearest 2m repeater was 8 miles away, my handheld could not talk with it until I put a J-Pole antenna on top of a 30' carbon fibre pole.

Radio comms is all down to antennas. You can have a $3000 I-com transceiver but if your antenna is crap you'll just be peeing into the wind.

 

By Olde Geezer....

Oh...quite correct...on the so called long range walkie talkies..

Most walkie talkies like the Baofeng radios...are hard pressed to go 10 miles....walkie talkie to walkie talkie.

However...I cheat so to speak...and getting to Max Riggers point.

At work I would change out the very marginal factory antenna for one of these Abree 42.5 inch long antennas...

Amazon.com: 42.5-Inch Length ABBREE SMA-Female Dual Band 144/430Mhz Foldable CS Tactical Antenna for Baofeng UV-5R UV-82 BF-F8HP UV-9R Plus Ham Two Way Radio : Electronics

However..even at that I would be hard pressed to make distance at work unless I take the elevator up to the roof of our building some 85 feet high.

Oh...dont get me wrong..I also use the Amateur Repeaters to extend my range when needed...but mostly I use radio to radio locally with people I know...we seldom use the repeaters.

Again..dont get me wrong.>I have used the Downtown Richmond 146.880 MHZ repeater to extend my range to over 100 miles...From here in Hampton to Cumberland, Virginia and using a 45 watt mobile radio hooked up to a J pole antenna with good altitude on it.
Also the Richmond repeater is on top of a tall bank building downtown Richmond which also helps..


At my new work location I have two Baofeng walkie talkies and two of those Abree 42.5 inch antennas....they sure have come down in price since I bought mine.
I also have one of these antennas in the back of my car and also my truck ...just in case.

As I am often want to say.....the factory antennas are marginal at best.


However...again fitting into cheating .....

I can also take my Baofeng walkie talkie and use an adapter to hook it up to my J pole base station antenna...up sone 65 feet in a tree and thus get out better than the Abree antenna.

Here is the plans/video for my base station aluminum J pole antenna....relatively simple to make...

NT1K.com - Building The Dual Band Open Stub J-Pole - YouTube

Once again the altitude on an antenna makes a difference...in addition to a more efficient antenna.


For the long range bands....My antenna is a 500 foot roll of stranded 12 gage wire with black insulation from the Lowes .
This roll of wire has been strung up into the tops of my trees with a fishing pole technique...and it is a very efficient long range Hf antenna. I have four of these rolls of wire put back..also I am a bit stunned...they have more than doubled in price since I bought my four rolls.

Southwire 500-ft 12-AWG Stranded Black Copper Thhn Wire (By-the-roll) in the TFFN & THHN Wire department at Lowes.com



The radio I often use on the long range HF bands is one of these Xiegu G90 rigs....but it only puts out 20 watts...maximum power...though it can be dialed back in power ...20 watts is max.

Amazon.com: Xiegu G90 HF Radio 20W SSB/CW/AM/FM SDR Structure with Built-in Auto Antenna Tuner : Electronics

I also have several of these radios ...with a couple put back wrapped in foil and placed into metal ammo boxes..
I also have the cooling fans for all these rigs..a good idea to have....

Amazon.com: Radioddity G90-H1 Bracket Holder Quiet Cooling Fan 2-in-1 for Xiegu G90 : Electronics

Here is the main point....getting to Max Riggers post.....

With only 20 watts to make do....antenna efficiency is going to make a huge bit of difference.. in how well you get out and receive.

Oh don't get me wrong here...I have an Ameritron 811 H amplifier capable of some 800 watts output...but the way I have learned to operate I seldom ever run it. For all that matter my amplifier is dying from lack of use....from arthritis. Like an olde car...if you do not run it once in awhile it dies of arthritis...so too with electronic gear.

I seldom have any problem getting out to Tennessee some 400 miles to my long time friend with just 20 watts. I have made the trip with as little as 5 watts SSB mode..but 20 watts is much better.

This is what experience and the olde timers have taught me ..where it pays dividends...pays off.


Oh..and remember something...in a SHTF situation...want to stand out...go ahead and be dumb enough to run 800 plus watts...you are going to stand out big time..everyone will know you are out there...not what you want to do in SHTF.

That is the main point here in a SHTF situation. There will definitely be times when you dare not stand out.
How you know and learn to run your radio can make a difference in SHTF.....antenna efficiency can be very very important.


Just my non Ishmaelite .02,
Watcherchris

 

Oh...one more thing about VHF radio....

VHF will go long...do skipping the ionosphere if you like..

It will go some one to three states over...in distance on occasion...but...

It does not open for long..and will drop out quickly.

VHF does not open or stay open like the lower frequencies..

Hence my friend and I will often work 3 to 4 mega hertz in the evenings....mostly...and not 144 to 148 Mega hertz.

Just some additional info on VHF radio....in those walkie talkies..


Watcherchris
Not an Ishmaelite.

 

I've got a couple of Nagoya NA771 for the UV5Rs, big improvement over the standard rubber duck.

To be honest 2m is dead here in Spain, there are three hams within a 50k radius than I know of and they are mostly HF. Nice fellas, I've met them all for a beer or three.

 

Oh....about those 42.5 inch Abree antennas I mentioned in my post above...

https://www.amazon.com/42-5-Inch-ABBREE-SMA-Female-Foldable-Tactical/dp/B07STB8BD6/ref=sr_1_1?crid=37AB63XEUPMAN&keywords=abbree+42.5+inch+baofeng+antenna&qid=1701647663&sprefix=abree+42.5+inch+,aps,316&sr=8-1


These antennas will transmit and receive in the folded up mode as you see in the photo. Not as efficiently as unfolded but they will work.

These are civilian versions of the olde military antennas the grunts used in combat out in the field.

These Abree antennas also come in lengths other than the 42.5 model I posted....some of them about half that length.

Just some additional information for some members out here thinking about getting a radio similar to the Baofeng.

Here is the antenna of which Max Rigger was speaking and this length is what most of the Hams around here use....and it is very efficient for it's size and price....and definitely an improvement over the factory antenna.

Amazon.com: Authentic Genuine Nagoya NA-771 15.6-Inch Whip VHF/UHF (144/430Mhz) Antenna SMA-Female for BTECH and BaoFeng Radios : Everything Else

I personally know several people who use Baofeng radios and they are not hams. Around here many people use them out in the field to keep in touch with their group when hunting....and it is now hunting season.

In my personal opinion ..the Baofeng is a good radio for the price.....

No the Baofeng radio is not strictly for hams....a lot of people use them for other reasons.


Watcherchris
Not an Ishmaelite.

 

It's a simple function of mobile phone masts. The phone is located to the nearest of any three local(ish) towers and the phone signal relayed through that.

Missing people can be located this way as the phone handset has a rudimentary tracker.

 

This is why in some situations you want a phone wherein you can remove the battery at your discretion...and for your reasons...Tracking...Herding.

I suspected something was up when these touch screen phones came out wherein you could not access the battery.

I also keep a couple of spare batteries in my pocket in a plastic bag for my olde flip phone.

Watcherchris
Not an Ishmaelite.

 

What I think.....is that someone here....mostly Deep State players are quietly getting the west ready for the next world war....and have been so doing for some time now. I also think that Trump foiled their plans and schedules big time which is why it is so important for them to rig the system such that he can never get elected. They do not seem to be able to control him.

Nonetheless....I detect that someone is working towards the next world war.....been suspecting it for some time now...and lonewolf....you have given me another piece of the puzzle....with your quote above.

It is little seemingly unconnected tell tale pieces....which when you remember them....form a larger picture.
And yours ...lonewolf..is to me....another piece of the Mosiac...of the next world war..

I think someone here in the west is trying to maneuver Russia and Iran into committing to the next world war.


Watcherchris
Not an Ishmaelite.

 

Putin has screwed his military resources, plus has gotten killed innumerable young Russian men of military age. Add to this body-count, several generals.

Russia cannot in the here-and-now attack any NATO country. Building back what military resources have been eaten by the Ukrainian war will take years. Putin thought that taking provinces in the the eastern Ukraine was going to be a few months long conquering cake-walk. Oops!

And obviously, were Russia to use nukes on NATO countries, that would be suicide writ large.

The Ukraine is going to lose this war. It's eastern provinces, filled with citizens of Russian-origin, will go to Russia. Russia will not be able to take all of Ukraine. Ukraine, if taken, would be a perpetual thorn in the side of Russia. Eastern Ukraine however has ties to Russia going back decades and decades. In fact, there have been pro-Russian militia groups in eastern Ukraine fighting for independence from Ukraine -- this for years, now.
.

 

I saw that and it's bonkers. For years the UK government have pushed us towards having everything electrical from heating to cars and now the morons have suddenly woken up to the lack of generation capacity and are urging us, its citizens, to prep for their failures. It would be laughable if it wasn't so serious. Of course the upshot of this is that thee will be a shortage of batteries and the prices of them will soar.

 

I seriously doubt Russia has the capability, following its incredibly poor performance in Ukraine, to invade another country just now.

 

Will Putin really be in power in three years? I imagine he is avoiding touching door knobs and going on to balconies just now

 

It is, but is that the idea? Create a panic buying situation and boost sales at Christmas so they can boast that the economy is recovering - I wouldn't put it pash them.

 

by lonewolf...

I agree with lonewolf here..


For years now ..it has been my habit to keep on hand several 40 packs of AA type batteries. I try to keep most of my gear around AA types and as I use them up..I replace them.
I do not want to be caught doing that last minute buying against rabid competition as to which lonewolf alludes.

However...todays gear I notice seems to be more of the rechargeable type....and I have of recent purchased three of these gadgets...

https://www.amazon.com/KARECEL-Rechargeable-Electric-Powerbank-Handwarmers/dp/B07FLN8823/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?crid=18H8OJUW7VIDJ&keywords=karecel+rechargeable+hand+warmers,+electric+hand+warmer&qid=1701855189&sprefix=hand+warmers+rechargeable+karecel,aps,92&sr=8-1-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGY&psc=1

I Keep one on me in my coat pocket to and fro work and have the charger line with me as well.

I have also found that the outdoor cat appreciates one in his outdoor cat house...as winter arrives.,,and I recharge one while he uses the other.


Watcherchris
Not an Ishmaelitel.

 

Last week was buying a specialty battery at a battery store (Batteries Plus store name). While there, they had these large packs of batteries made in the USA, Rayovac brand, on sale. They had a huge container the size of a rain-barrel full of these -- probably due to the Christmas season. So I grabbed a bunch ... even though we already have drawers-full. Super good price when buying in bulk.

As to candles:

Most folk have rarely had to use candles due to power outages, so they don't have a clue as to how many they have to have when the power goes out for days. Our ancestors were PERPETUALLY making candles out of tallow. They had to.

I keep stacks of wax and rolls of wicking. One block weighs 20 lb. Storing kerosene for your lamps creates a fire hazard, so I store the kerosene in our work-shed out back (it is a separate structure / not next to the house). As you eat canned beans or whatever, keep and clean the cans for candle-making. As paraffin hardens, the center will drop down due to shrinkage. The slower it hardens, the less this affect. Watch out for this, but all you have to do is after that wax hardens, pour-in more paraffin to fill the center -- it will eventually even up and be flat-ish on top. I create a wick holder at the bottom of the can to keep the base of the wick centered. I also have wood wicks (it's a porous type of wood, big flame, crackles like a fireplace). You can also use Crisco (solid-ish/creamy vegetable oil). Too, liquid veggie oil can be used as fuel. You store these for cooking anyway, so remember to rotate your stock with heavy usage / prepping.

Tend to candles as they burn. I only use container candles. Continually trim the wick to get the desired flame height. If the wick is still good, don't trim it. Add more paraffin. Crisco candles use fuel somewhat rapidly, so I just keep adding more spoonfuls of Crisco if the wick isn't charred / is still working well. You should keep an eye on your candles as they burn anyway -- if you don't, you can easily create a fire hazard. Same is true of your kerosene lamps.

Always keep more wicking for your kerosene lamps. With kerosene lamps, you must pay attention to ventilation. Never attempt to totally seal a room. If it's getting chilly, put on more clothing. We keep numerous pairs of thermal underwear along with sweaters. When you do have electricity and/or natural gas feed, I recommend keeping your thermostat setting at a lower temperature and wearing more clothes. This is what we do to keep our power bills lower. Want to heat your bathroom for comfortable bathing, go ahead and heat the bathroom -- that smaller room is no budget-buster to heat.

One winter when the electricity went out, we packed all the kids, us, two dogs, and lit a half dozen candles into our master bedroom. Dogs help you heat a room when the power is out. Store bags of dog food. Natives have brought the dogs in to sleep with them on cold nights for millennia. The colder the night, bring in more dogs. This is where the phrase (and band name) "three dog night" comes from. Too, many dog breeds, especially working breeds, have higher metabolic rates than us humans = better heating units.

Now that it's coming up winter here in the northern hemisphere, remember to insulate your home's water pipes. If the temps get really severely cold, then let spigots run a tiny stream of water to prevent freezing. Drain outdoor garden hoses to prevent freezing/splitting.

Here's a how-too video on make-do candles (if you have no paraffin, or only stick candles):



More candle-making vid.s:



For large diameter candles, just use jars, not a mold. Also, re-pour when the wax shrinks in the middle like this fellow does:




I found this 20 lb. block of paraffin for sale online. The asking price was absolutely ridiculous! Shop around before buying.

 

Been thinking about this .....by lonewolf and inputs from some other members...

I do not trust NATO and think that NATO is a deep state front....and as one of the other members here alluded to the Ukraine is a Deep State front for money laundering....and other related/fallen activities.

I think in the Orient ...Taiwan is the same a money laundering front...

We here in America will get nothing out of the Ukraine....just as we did in WW1 and WW2.

More and more if you sit back and watch history ...the goal of these wars and conflicts seems not to end them but how to keep them going to reach some kind of goal...and it is not winning these wars...but keeping them going.


In similitude to Here in the USA....and this Fentanyl nonsense...

In my mind...this cannot be happening on such an large scale without the complicity of people high up...in power.....knowing and abetting the Fentanyl disaster going on ....leadership is doing this to us.

By the numbers of deaths quoted...it is as high as gun violence or any other violence on the streets....yet nothing even seems to be attempted to be done to stop or slow it down....telling me it is corrupt at the highest levels..

And clearly the Ukraine is corrupt at the highest levels...

America does not need to be spending its finest or materials on this ersatz cause...


Also I do not believe that Putin wants Poland or any other part of the NATO....lands...he has his hands full just managing Russia.

What he wants is for the Russian speaking areas to have what they want..and access to that seaport..

As near as I can tell...he has that now.. The Ukraine is militarily finished.


What I am detecting is that our corrupt/fallen leadership is ready to commit American Troops to protect the Deep State investments in the Ukraine...and thus prolong this conflict even further...

What a Klown show on our part with our fallen leadership who have sold their souls to the deep state and will also sell our souls as well.!!!!

Da Tovarich!!!???


Be Warned these Ishmaelites....who would continue to put America and Americans into further Ishmaelite bondage. Put another way..America and Americans in last place..even in our own country....just like Europe and the UK...last place in their own country.

This alone..tells us all we need to know about who or what is running this country.


Ask yourself a question...no one in leadership or the phony news media or public education wants asked...???

If someone ..some group...would deliberately rig the system....Fentanyl....the news media.....illegals.....and foreign wars...in which we have nothing to gain...no new territories or spoils...zero...nada!!

Would they also rig an election...???

Is trying so hard to keep Trump off the ballot....is that also rigging an election...and am I supposed to think this far without the permission of my betters???

Do I need a PHD to even think this far outside the authorized box of ideas?????


How have the mighty Fallen!!!???


My Non Ishmaelite .02,
Watcherchris

 

To me ...this does not even make good stupid......

We have an ersatz phony ...non representative government who does not trust it's people to be armed....yet wants to arm the other side of the world.

One of the biggest arms dealers in this world is the United States Government. Yet we are not trusted to be armed.....??? Catching on yet????

And I am not just speaking of Physical Arms/weapons....but armed Spiritually, and also with real information's...sufficient to form our own concepts and ideas...to be able to arm ourselves with real independent thinking....not Hollywood drivel.....and or ESPN....Amusements.


Oh....not sure of the numbers in the Fentanyl deaths ..but wondering if it approaches the number of deaths in car accidents here in the USA??? Any of you members know??? Just my random thinking.

Do any of you reckon someone in leadership is asking this question????

Are we even supposed to think this far on our own ....or only to stay on script?????


Ishmaelites run wild...


My non Ishmaelite .02,

Watcherchris

 

Taiwan manufactures key integrated circuit chips for the Western world. These are used in all computerized systems. Terrible thing is that we have allowed these to be necessary for our military, especially our aircraft.

The West, to include the U.S., should NEVER have allowed this dependence. How mind-numbingly stupid!!!

One of the very few things this current White House regime has done that makes sense is to attempt to bring back IC manufacturing to the U.S. They have actually provided $millions$ to make this happen. I think this is "a day late and a dollar short". It's going to take years! We don't have years. This is one big reason China wants to squash Taiwan ... and do it soon.

The following article is what I would call a near "must read" if you want to understand the importance of Taiwan in the realm of global technology and why it is a flash-point in the potential China-U.S. war. It's a long read and I've only quoted a few paragraphs. I deeply recommend that one read the entire article. A presidential election is coming up in Taiwan and communist China wants a winner who will compromise with them. The leading candidate is overtly anti-China.

"Taiwan Presidential Race Set; U.S.-China Chip War Nears Moment Of Truth For Nvidia, Apple And The World "

https://www.investors.com/news/taiw...ment-of-truth-for-nvidia-apple-and-the-world/

Begin quote

Taiwan's presidential candidates are now set for the Jan. 13 showdown that could turn out to be the most status-quo-altering election in 2024 for the world and the S&P 500.

The outcome of Taiwan's election will likely determine Beijing's next move. Expect a diplomatic bear hug if a candidate favoring closer ties with China wins, or something more hostile if the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party retains power. Odds of a DPP win improved on Friday as two opposition parties registered for the election after a deal to form a unity ticket fell apart. No matter the outcome, President Biden's geopolitical gambit to preserve America's technology and military advantage is entering a period of maximum risk.

If there's one thing that the U.S. and China agree on, it's that advanced chips are the most critical strategic asset. America pioneered the semiconductor industry and won the Cold War largely because of it. Yet, by an accident of economic history and Morris Chang's visionary leadership of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the U.S. stores its crown jewels, so to speak, 100 miles off the coast of the Chinese mainland.

Now the U.S. has assembled a united front to deprive China of the world's most advanced chips and equipment to make them. Those cutting-edge technologies come from the U.S., U.K., the Netherlands, South Korea and Japan. Yet 90% of advanced chips designed by companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL) and Broadcom (AVGO), are made at the sprawling TSMC factory campus on the island that China claims as its own.

That's why Beijing views the U.S.-China chip war not just as injurious — since it has an explicit goal of diminishing China's technological capability — but as a direct challenge to its sovereignty.

A Chinese blockade of Taiwan — even one that doesn't spiral into a military conflict — could disrupt over $2 trillion in economic activity by severing the primary source of advanced semiconductors from global supply chains, Rhodium Group estimates. Taiwan Semiconductor's output — including 70% of all smartphone chipsets, 30% of auto microcontrollers and a dominant share of chips for high-end graphics processing units for PCs and servers — feeds through to $1.6 trillion in annual corporate revenue for its global customers, the research firm says.

China's only real hope for reclaiming Taiwan while retaining the island's chipmaking prowess comes at the ballot box. If the Taiwanese people elect a president seeking more amicable ties with Beijing, it might become harder for TSMC to follow U.S. marching orders in its chip war vs. China.

"You don't invade Taiwan because you want technology," BCA Research chief geopolitical strategist Matt Gertken told clients on an August webcast. The way for China to gain access to TSMC's advanced fabs is to "have enough political influence so they do not enforce American export controls."

Just what might change if a China-friendly candidate comes to power is far from clear. Chinese technology giant Huawei was one of TSMC's biggest customers until 2019, when sanctions by the Trump administration cut off its access.

Odds that current Taiwan vice president and DPP presidential candidate William Lai will prevail improved in recent days as negotiations fell apart for a joint ticket between the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP).

In recent years, U.S. military and intelligence analyses concluded that Xi was pushing his military to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027. But Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and others have begun warning that China is pursuing reunification on a "much faster timeline."

"My gut tells me we will fight in 2025," Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan wrote in a January memo obtained by the press. In October 2022, Admiral Michael Gilday, then chief of naval operations, even spoke of a potential "2023 window" for an invasion.

Beijing may conclude that the sooner it acts, the better its chances of success. For one thing, support for Ukraine as it tries to repel Russian occupiers has stretched U.S. military readiness.

A June report from a Council of Foreign Relations task force on defending Taiwan acknowledged the Ukraine war's strategic importance. But the task force warned that the U.S. "will need to urgently repair its defense industrial base" to prepare for a high-intensity war with China.

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