Us Dollar And Geopolitics

Discussion in 'News, Current Events, and Politics' started by Pragmatist, May 22, 2020.

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  1. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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  2. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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  3. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    https://news.trust.org/item/20201213175137-8vsfr


    WASHINGTON, Dec 13 (Reuters) -

    "Hackers backed by a foreign government have been monitoring internal email traffic at the U.S. Treasury Department and an agency that decides internet and telecommunications policy, according to people familiar with the matter.

    "'The United States government is aware of these reports and we are taking all necessary steps to identify and remedy any possible issues related to this situation,' said National Security Council spokesman John Ullyot.

    "There is concern within the U.S. intelligence community that the hackers who targeted the Treasury Department and the Commerce Department's National Telecommunications and Information Administration used a similar tool to break into other government agencies, according to three people briefed on the matter. The people did not say which other agencies.

    "The hack is so serious it led to a National Security Council meeting at the White House on Saturday, said one of the people familiar with the matter.

    "The hack involves the NTIA's office software, Microsoft's Office 365. Staff emails at the agency were monitored by the hackers for months, sources said.

    Old Geezer's take: Good thing digital currencies can't be hacked !!!!!! :D:D:D:D:D
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  4. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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  5. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Master Survivalist
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    Good morning Old Geezer,

    Just read the Wolf Richter link.

    I've been following the Chinese Renminbi. His line graphs are good under current circumstances ... like Mario Andretti's STP oil additive: STP = Standard Temperature and Pressue as a figure of speech.

    A change to our geopolitical environment like a war or a global economic confrontation ... Think of Nixon closing down Bretton Woods - It morphed into Davos... can make the powerful Us into a non-powerful US.

    China's One Belt Road program involves nearly 70 countries. This is 65% of the world's population and, as of now, 40% of global GDP. This one road program uses the RMB as the currency.

    The new Silk Road isn't in a vacuum. Germany will soon be linked to Russia's gas via Nord Stream 2.

    Continental Europe is already lost as far as the Atlantic Alliance is concerned.

    Wolf Richter's 50 year frame for the RMB could get accelerated to between 10 - 20 years from now. President Biden's infrastruture development program could speed up the RMB use. Who the Hades wants an inflated $US ?!

    Our saving hope is still BREXIT with the UK in a new economic alliance with the US-Canada- Mexico. This will give some scale to work with.

    Remember, before China's Diem Hsiao-Ping's economic reforms, the US produced ~ 40% of world GDP. Today it is ~ 20%.

    Forget the wall. The writing is on the deposit and withdrawal slips.
     
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  6. Max rigger

    Max rigger Master Survivalist
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    The pound is doing well against the dollar and euro at the moment because of the success of the vaccine programme and the economy opening up earlier than Europe, $1.38 and Euro €1.17 to £1. Last trip to Spain I got IIRC €1.01 so pretty much parity rate.
     
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  7. Pragmatist

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    Good morning Max,

    You've introduced an important point re the FOREX strength in relationship to the vaccine programs.

    The new Silk Road project is vast and it involves the Suez Canal. Watch for Lloyd's of London soon getting a continuous load of large accounts receivable re the just cleared canal.
     
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  8. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    A golden little historic story

    The Emperor has no clothes.

    1971; the beginning of the end

    "British Requests for $3 billion in US Treasury Gold – The Trigger that Closed the Gold Window"

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021...n-us-treasury-gold-trigger-closed-gold-window

    "Exactly 50 years has passed since the US Government famously suspended the convertibility of US dollars into gold on 15 August 1971 in a speech announced by then US president Richard Nixon.

    "Covering their Assets
    "And what did the old chaps in the Bank of England mean by ‘covering their US dollar assets‘? Why of course, it meant asking the Americans to convert Britain’s dollar balances into gold bars.

    "Which is preciously why the Earl of Cromer, Rowland Baring, strolled into the US Treasury offices 2 days later and asked that US$ 3 billion of Britain’s US dollar holdings be converted into gold bars.

    "Recall the use of the word COVER in various quotes above:

    "Barber (2016) – 'In the second week of August 1971, the British ambassador appeared before the United States Treasury and asked that $3 billion be converted into gold to act as “COVER” for all their dollar assets.'

    "Volcker and Gyohten (1993) – 'On Thursday, August 12, the Bank of England requests unspecified devaluation COVER for its dollar reserves of about $ 3 billion. The Federal Reserve draws $2.2 billion on its swap lines, including $750 million for the Bank of England.'

    "'..If the British… were going to take gold for their dollars, it was clear the game was indeed over.”

    "Coombs (1976) – quoting Connally 'The British came in today to ask us to COVER $3 billion, all their dollar reserves'

    "Coombs again – 'The Bank of England request for COVER, quickly agreed in the amount of $750 million rather than $3 billion, was a direct consequence of justifiable British suspicion that the Treasury was on the verge of closing the gold window.'

    "And that is how the British bankers via the Earl of Cromer triggered the US to close the gold window at that precise time on 15 August 1971, knowing that 'The Americans would probably refuse and close the gold window'.

    "Which is what the Americans then did. This gold window closure then ushered in the US dollar fiat era, a 50 year period of a fake and eroding world reserve asset, the fallout of which we see right up to this day, and which has been responsible for totally altering the world’s monetary and economic landscape, and not in a good way. (See the fantastic visual charts website https://wtfhappenedin1971.com for details of why this is so.)

    "An important question arising from Cromer’s request to the US Treasury is who was working for who, and who benefited from the gold window closure.

    "Was it the outcome of a random set of events? Or was there a joint US-British decision to orchestrate the end of gold convertibility under the guise of a monetary crisis? Were there shadowy and powerful private banking interests influencing events behind the scenes? And did the US close the gold window because they had far less gold than they claimed to have?

    "A 19 March 1973 US State Department cable, marked secret, refers to a 16 March 1973 meeting in Bonn between then US Secretary of the Treasury George Shultz and then West German Chancellor Willy Brandt, in which Shultz says that:

    “'huge deficits in the US balance of payments had occurred and had drained our gold reserves.

    "'The week before August 15, 1971, a rush on those reserves forced the closing of our gold window bringing the end of convertibility.'

    "Very Interestingly, the word ‘drained’ is specifically used. ‘Drained’ is defined as ‘to deplete gradually, especially to the point of exhaustion‘, or ‘to become empty by the drawing off of‘. So, did the US Treasury even have half the gold it claimed to have in August 1971 or was Fort Knox already empty, and was this another reason for the sudden gold window closure?"
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  9. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    "It's Official: Russia And China Announce 'New Global Reserve Currency'"

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022...nd-china-announce-new-global-reserve-currency

    "China and Russia are taking their shot at the U.S. dollar. And as often happens with consequential news in the United States and the West, no one seems to notice or even care.

    "Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing about the possibility of Russia and China challenging the US dollar’s global reserve status. Now, it’s happening.

    "It shouldn’t be any surprise to those paying attention that Russia and China are strengthening their economic ties amidst continued Western sanctions on Russia as a result of the country’s war in Ukraine.

    "What may surprise some people, however, is that Russia and the BRICS countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are officially working on their own 'new global reserve currency,' RT reported in late June. Nobody even seemed to notice."
    ----------------------------------------------------------

    If one has been paying attention, you're not shocked. Why else would Russia and China be buying outrageous amounts of gold over the past few years?! This was a given. Western nations have little to underwrite their fiat currencies.

    Russia and China will back-up their "money" script will gold if someone doesn't trust the paper. Increasingly, the West is unable to do that.

    The BRICs are a motley crew; however, Western banking has left itself open to attack. Weakness makes strange bedfellows out of one's enemies.

    If you can't protect it, you don't own it.
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  10. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard ! Staff Member
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    The enemy of my enemy is my friend, until I don't need them.
     
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  11. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    Currently, the U.S. dollar looks good. It is only a facade. The dollar is only "healthy" relative to other fiat currencies. Western economies are now looking at a "recession" that will never end -- only get progressively worse. All debt-based economies are doomed.

    Here's a decent article describing the fatal mechanism by which the dollar will soon succumb.

    reminder: CPI = Consumer Price Index

    https://goldswitzerland.com/the-feds-strong-usd-policy-a-recipe-for-systemic-implosion/

    "From Main Street USA to the village corners and central banks of Europe, Japan and elsewhere, the Fed’s strong USD policy is backfiring—big time. Just ask the Brits…

    "Having spent years creating the inflation (QE1 to unlimited QE, Repo bailouts, massive money supply expansion, and an historical wealth transfer from an inflated, Fed-driven stock market), the Fed will be cleaning up its own inflation mess on the backs of the U.S. working class and its other global 'allies' while blaming the CPI inflation on Putin, Covid and climate change.

    "By raising rates into what we all know is a recession, Powell, who delusionaly pretends to be Volcker re-born, wants to solve the inflation he helped create by engineering a demand-crippling recession which he thinks he can control, but can’t and won’t.

    "And this will be the mother of all recessions, as there is an historical and concomitant debt (and hence currency) crisis in every corner of the globe ($300T+) as well as every corner of the nation ($90T+), from the toxic corporate bond market and over-strapped households to a grotesquely bloated ($30T+) government debt market.

    "If debt is the everywhere-driver of the economy and markets, then any significant increase in the cost of that debt will destroy every corner of that economy and those markets, from zombie enterprises to negative yielding US Treasuries.

    "Rising rates will cripple nearly every asset but the artificially inflated USD until all savings are gone, most citizens are hand-out dependent, and most markets and currencies are on their knees.

    "At that point, Uncle Sam will either default on the IOU’s (Treasury bonds) which no one will want, or the Fed will pivot to more mouse-click money to buy/support his debt addiction, following the recent example in the UK.

    "And since the US is too arrogant to fail/default (TAF), the Fed’s only stupid choice left among a long history of stupid, will be a gold-boosting QE pivot.

    "After the pain, politics and panics have reached levels the US and global economy and markets haven’t seen since the FDR era, Powell will throw in the towel and pivot.

    "Investors are forgetting that not only is Hawkish Powell raising rates into a debt bubble, he’s slowly tightening the Fed’s balance sheet, which just means dumping more Treasury supply into a demand-less sovereign bond market.

    "And this supply stream means bonds will fall even further and hence their yields (and interest rates) will keep rising, thereby by adding massive insult to an already fatally injured credit/debt market.

    "For now, Powell’s plan is to let rates, yields and hence the dollar rise, in the hopes that the Greenback will be the only place left for global investors (suckers) to hide, which is where they are indeed beginning to hide.

    "It’s only a matter of time, however, before foreign investors, nostalgic for the days of former US glory, realize that such glory is gone, and that the only way UST’s will ever be 'risk-free-return' is if the Fed prints more debased money to buy them, which is not Powell’s current practice.

    "In essence then, foreigners aren’t hiding in 'risk-free-return,' but drowning in 'return-free-risk' as even 3-4% yields on the US 10Y Treasury yield a negative -5% return when adjusted for inflation, despite it being under-reported by 50%.

    "Remember when I said the Fed has no good options left? I meant it. It’s either tighten and risk systemic collapse, or ease and destroy the currency.

    "Pick your poison."
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    1. Old Geezer
      Old Geezer, Oct 4, 2022
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  12. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    "China’s gold stockpiling is dollar warning sign"

    https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/chinas-gold-stockpiling-is-dollar-warning-sign/

    "Beijing is quietly dumping dollars for gold as greenback strength looks increasingly illusionary

    "TOKYO — One of the worst-kept secrets in global central banking is the extent to which Chinese officials are swapping dollars for gold.

    "Governor Yi Gang’s team at the People’s Bank of China isn’t admitting as much. The PBOC doesn’t have to, though, given the clear policy trajectory Chinese leader Xi Jinping has pursued in recent years: internationalizing of the yuan as the top rival to the dollar.

    "Xi’s position hasn’t changed so much as other governments are catching on that trust is waning in the global reserve currency and an alternative to the dollar is badly needed.

    "Particularly as the US national debt zooms past $30 trillion, inflation is at 40-year highs, the Federal Reserve is pushing the biggest economy into recession and a band of firebrand Republicans threatens to play politics with Washington’s debt limit again.

    "Not surprisingly, central banks that once hoarded dollars are buying gold at the fastest clip on record. In the July-September quarter, central banks more than quadrupled gold purchases from a year earlier — adding nearly a net 400 tonnes to already sizable stockpiles.

    "Yet the longer-term trajectory for global currency markets remains dollar-negative as China and other top Treasuries-holding powers switch into an asset John Maynard Keynes once dismissed as a barbaric relic.' That relic is now flashing red alert for dollar bulls."
     
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  13. poltiregist

    poltiregist Legendary Survivalist
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    The forecast of worthless money like we have seen in the past in Germany and now in Venezuela is sweeping the planet . More and more we are seeing the wisdom of the preppers that established self-sufficient homesteads , whereas the necessity of government issued currency , may be needed only to pay taxes . I hope regardless as to whether our forum member is active or inactive , that they have their homestead set up . Currency hopefully is not a necessity . --- As I have mentioned before on this forum , I try to forecast the future and proceed to prep for things " before " they happen . Thus my determination to establish my tribe a survival grounds while the opportunity " though hard " was still doable was fulfilled . Now I see people thrashing about and to " some degree " panicked as they see what has befallen the planet and the door closing on that opportunity for that self-sufficient homestead . One response I see is anger by those left behind directed at the self-sufficient prepper . I just hope the angry left behind folks don't end up dog food or in my gun sights trying to steal what they failed to provide for their family .
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2022
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  14. lonewolf

    lonewolf Legendary Survivalist Staff Member
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    at some point in any emergency, business and commerce will cease to function, once the banks and the ATM's no longer are able to dispense money or transact card payments then all hell will break lose.
    when that day comes the govt will also no longer be able to exert taxes from the masses, and they also will collapse.
    once that happens everyone is on their own and society itself will cease to exist.
    how long this takes from start to finish is anyone's guess but mine is not long, weeks at most and it could be days especially if there is a run on the banks as we have seen in the past.
    many over here would poo-poo all I have said here but I stand by what I have written.
     
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    1. poltiregist
      totally agree
       
      poltiregist, Nov 25, 2022
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  15. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Legendary Survivalist
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    First, a definition of term "Global South":

    "What Is Global South?"


    https://politicalscienceblog.com/what-is-global-south/

    "The 'North- South' categories were popularized by the Brandt Commission reports published in 1980 and 1983, both of which bore 'North-South' in their titles. Over the following decades, 'global' was attached to the 'South' to form the contemporary compound term. The predicate was indicative of the globalization process that emerged in the 1990s. The United Nations Development Programme initiative of 2003, 'Forging a Global South', underlined the significance of the term and the new conceptualization of global relations it represented.

    "The term Global South has become fashionable very recently. In a bibliographic study by a group of German scholars, the first recorded use was in 1996. In 2004, the term 'The Global South' appeared in just 19 humanities and social sciences publications, but by 2013, the number had grown to 248. The scholars who use it mainly associate it with some of globalization’s ills. While the countries of the Global North have not only stable states but also a robust public sector, the Global South is, to a far greater extent, subject to the forces of global Neoliberalism rather than enacting the very same forces."
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------

    And why has China been purchasing such a tonnage of gold?

    "The Global South births a new game-changing payment system"

    https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/18975

    "Challenging the western monetary system, the Eurasia Economic Union is leading the Global South toward a new common payment system to bypass the US Dollar.

    "The Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) is speeding up its design of a common payment system, which has been closely discussed for nearly a year with the Chinese under the stewardship of Sergey Glazyev, the EAEU’s minister in charge of Integration and Macro-economy.

    "Through its regulatory body, the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), the EAEU has just extended a very serious proposal to the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) which, crucially, are already on the way to turning into BRICS+: a sort of G20 of the Global South.

    "The system will include a single payment card – in direct competition with Visa and Mastercard – merging the already existing Russian MIR, China’s UnionPay, India’s RuPay, Brazil’s Elo, and others.

    "That will represent a direct challenge to the western-designed (and enforced) monetary system, head on. And it comes on the heels of BRICS members already transacting their bilateral trade in local currencies, and bypassing the US dollar.

    "Vladimir Kovalyov, adviser to the chairman of the EEC, summed it all up to Russian newspaper Izvestia. The focus is to establish a joint financial market, and the priority is to develop a common “exchange space:” “We’ve made substantial progress and now the work is focused on such sectors as banking, insurance, and the stock market.”

    "A new regulatory body for the proposed joint EEU-BRICS financial system will soon be established.

    "Meanwhile, trade and economic cooperation between the EAEU and BRICS have increased 1.5 times in the first half of 2022 alone.

    "Here we once again see the advancing convergence of not only BRICS and EAEU but also the financial institutions deeply involved in projects under the China-led New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)."
    .
     
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