What I see could happen:

If or when our present society does face a collapse, there is a pretty good chance that conditions may exist for us to fall down part way back or away from a strong centralized federal government. In other words, we could slip backwards towards more powerful local and state level governments with the stronger federal government becoming a distant memory. Sort of like what we had around the turn of the 1900s.

Imagine, if you will, that a worldwide financial collapse has hit. Stocks, bonds and money markets have all gone belly up. People with precious metals are looked at with suspicion. People with rare gems are looked at with even more suspicion than gold, silver and platinum handlers. Fuel, food and the basics of life suddenly become the most important things in life. Families begin to collect together into more solid groups to help each other out and for mutual defense.

Strangers passing through small towns will be looked at with suspicion and thought to be spies for large raiding parties. So while we may have some danger and trouble, I don't see us having to face a Mad Max kind of world. I would tend to think that if anything that we would probably see something more like what our nation looked like just prior to World War One only better. While we would have problems, we're much smarter now and better understand technology than our ancestors from many years ago did. We would also have better communications, better transportation and we would have a better understanding of how to schedule mass transportation and so on.

So, while we may suffer a kind of national depression, I don't think that it will be super bad. I think that we should be ready for danger, problems and plan ahead by using common sense. We will have to probably link up with other people once the collapse begins or swings into full effect. But I also think that those who are properly prepared are the ones who will be the most comfortable for surviving.

 

Some places will do ok, some places won't no way to really tell beforehand!
A few things are known, small groups will fall prey to larger groups, the quality of the leaders of these groups will matter much. Only large well led groups will be able to hold ground,
If you are not in a large well led group keep your kit light and packed! and a well hidden sentry is essential.

 

Over the decades I have done some research!
Non preppers/survivalists without fail all say they will vacate the cities/towns/suburbs etc
Most have some long lost relatives they will burden and others will just burden someone they don't know!
That's why I have a plan to stay in the city if it will keep me away from most of the desperates!

Just look what is happening in Greece, overwhelming numbers!
If everyone is fleeing to the country do you really want to be in there path?

 

There is a direct link to population numbers and technology!

A community will regress steadily until the techno level can be maintained!
The more people doing well in a community the more can specialise and specialists can teach and improve!

So regression will depend on how many there is and how well they go!
then progress will restart!

 

Yep sucks to be a pom!
And the actual survivable population will be much lower than that initially as there will be major disruptions like fuels, seeds, skills, transport!
the first few years may see the population fall below 10 million then climb back up to the max sustainable!
Seafood will again play a large roll in the supply of protein!

Meanwhile down here after the initial die off mainly in larger towns and cities we will be swamped with food!
A lot of farmers will just stop farming as there will be no market!
Without exporting millions of tons of wheat, rice, sheep and cattle there will be a huge oversupply even with reduced production!
And our gardens produce 12 months of the year in most parts!
Where I am jan/feb is too hot and plants suffer while june/july/aug they slow down because it is a bit cool! but the rest of the year they prosper!
During the cooler months I water in the early morning with luke warm water about 25c and in the warmer months they get a drink around noon with 20c water!

 

I know a few ex UK preppers
They bugged out years ago and now call Australia home!
Same as some South Africans, French, Swiss, Germans and a Canadian!

But we are full now!

 

A few hits in the right places on the grid and the whole east coast can shut down!
Lots of safeties protecting the power stations but the actual grid has no protection!
Without a load the stations have to shut down and it takes a fair bit to get them up to speed again!

 

I was surrounded by shops/supermarkets while growing up
Never had any money to buy anything!
Scavenged stuff to go fishing, same for spearfishing and again for hunting except I could use dads .22lr
Many times the seven of us ate fish, eels, shellfish rabbits and sheep That was acquired by me!
Oops no sheep that would be poaching and I would never do that!

 

I agree with that, there will be panic because of this. They dont do face to face chats anymore. I have seen so many people become one with technology. My husband and me let our phones go out so that way we can have some peace and quiet from the world. I intentionally do not charge my phone over the weekend so I can have time with no calls from anyone. Want to talk come see me.
I love power outages here, I love being cut off for a little while.
Could I handle it for long amounts of time?
Summer yes
Winter no. I know I would have to get use to it and it would be me stiuffing blankets down my jackets for extra warmth but for entertainment purposes yes. I dont mind no tv no computer no phone. Warmth would be the only thing I would want it for.

 

This is pretty much accurate. Most people don't know what they would do without power. I am guilty of it sometimes. During a storm and we lose power, I may panic at first since I wasn't expecting it, but I just make the best of it. I go through my checklist of what to do when there is no power and hope it comes back. I think I would be able to survive just fine if that were to happen.

 

I totally agree! I live in the UP of Michigan, my nearest neighbor is 2.5 miles away. I'm on 80 acres abutting the Hiawatha National Forest. My Rottweiler Gus and I are pretty much the only ones back here. We are well aware of anyone in the area other than the hunting camps during the season. I feel secure, but make no mistake when shtf comes this will be a well protected area!!!

 

Not to mention a Carbon Monoxide detector!!!

 

In my current area (urban desert) I expect 90 to 95% will die from dehydration while surrounded by water sources. Too many people just expect the water to be there. Once those pumps stop running, they will not have a clue. They will not know how to filter the water sources that will still be there, so they will perish. They will not have food stored or know how to trap / snare the wild life running around the area. They will listen to the Morning Doves while dying from hunger. These people are adapt at modern living but will be useless once the power fails. Even if the government wanted to, they would not be able to convey any information to the populace on how to save themselves. During a SHTF event is the wrong time to start learning about survival. I do not expect a complete Mad Max situation but I do expect to see a tremendous amount of panic and ciaos.

 

Thanks for bringing this back up.

The problem with any possible fall now is that the fall will be soooo far. Even as we moved into the early electric and steam powered times there was still a fully functional animal powered rural support out there. Before WW2 most people lived in rural areas and the food was mostly grown locally. There were a lot of small towns that were primarily support systems for the many farms and farmers. There would be a cotton gin or grain driers and mills and a bank, couple of stores and housing for the people that worked in these places. Th back bone of the community though was the local level industries like farms and in some areas mines of various types.

Now the farming is almost totally done on a massive industrial size basis and is totally mechanized. The few horses that are still around are pleasure horses and mules are almost nonexistent where is up until WW2 they were big business. You have lots of people in the business of breeding raising and training animal and then even more people involved in making the saddles, and harnesses that allowed these animal to do a lot of heavy work. Then there were another entire huge group of people that made wagons buggies and animal powered farming equipment.

From the nearly prehistoric eras until WW2 animal powered farming and travel was the way things got done. Since 1945 that has all been disassembled and trashed. The animals are gone. The skilled workers that knew how to make the things that you needed to use those animals are gone and their skills not passes on. Most people now have almost no idea of how to grow their food. Even fewer know how to raise butcher and store meat.

When the power goes off never to come back on we will RAPIDLY descend into a world of human powered farming and travel. The BIG I mean HUGE problem with that is that the population that you can support with only human powered farming is tiny even when compared to animal powered farming. Even when the population settles out to about 10% of what is now existing that 10% will be living in a world similar to what the Native Americans had before the white man came.

We have a lot of horses here but I can see the crazy sheeple killing them for meat. I have some experience with old time gardening with no powered tillers or anything and the amount of work is a lot more than people now days realize. Old frats like me know what to do but I'm not sure that you will ever convince young people to do that level of work. A suspect that a hundred years after the fall the population will be no more than 5% of what it is now and that will be a rising figure from a bottom number in the 2% area. We will basically have to rebuild starting from a place before even animal power.

 

I believe that regardless of the disaster scenario envisioned, society will devolve from a technologically advanced civilization to an agrarian one. The only source of food available, after a period of time, will be what you can grow or harvest from either the land or the sea. No warts on the urban or suburban Preppers but the land on which they reside is not capable of sustaining life long term due to its population density. I would humbly estimate that 5 acres with an accessible water source would be the minimum required to produce enough food and keep livestock to sustain an extended family unit large enough to defend the homestead and any stores accumulated.
I don’t think anyone envisions a government workable solution to disaster, otherwise they wouldn’t be here but do people believe that society can reorganize at the neighborhood, town, regional or state levels in the future faster than the despots, warlords and dictators that will invariably form at the urban level looking outward?

 

First I am an Urban Prepper and I do plan to survive long term, in the city. In a sudden SHTF event, the thugs and future warlords will die off just like the normal folks. They will not know where to find the supplies they need and they will not have the time to learn the needed skills. A log term SHTF event will not allow the thugs to become the Warlords due to the very high number of firearms still in circulation. Now the liberal coast cities will suffer far more deaths but the Mad Max scenario is not going to spread out very far. Logistics, will limit the thug contagion, just like any other virus. Yes there is going to be a massive die off in either type of SHTF events. The cities will become a scavengers gold mine, once the die off is finished. There will be an abundance of land available for growing enough food for surviving the city preppers.

I do think society will be able to re-organize after the die off. The weak (mentally, physically, medically, and emotionally) will have died off. Those left will understand the value of working together and the need to build a better future. These survivors will not be the liberal snowflakes but the folks that have done what was needed to protect and serve their families and maybe the communities.

 

What he said

 

Does anybody here know anything about the oil industry? I do not, and I think I am asking a legitimate question. We all talk about the grid going down, and no power. What happens when no oil is coming out of the ground for the foreseeable future? It seems that this is an industry with monumental logistical issues. How do you get it out of the ground? How do you get it to a refinery? How do you refine it into useable product? How do you get that product to market? And that is all land based operations. Forget about anything coming from the Gulf or anything off-shore for that matter. All of this requires current, modern sources of energy to exist.

Where do we go for energy? Can you make solar panels without current sources of energy? You might do something with wind, but it will be more like the Netherlands than California.

 

There is some surface oil available, that seeps up. But the reality is you will be back to fish and whale oils. Here we have candle fish. They burn for light. There are some very good movies from the 1930's that are documentary for the people way north, and how they lived. It is not the way we thing it was. People in Alaska were still living a primitive lifestyle till WW-II.

 

I believe wood gas will be the most common form of energy available at the homestead level after existing gas and diesel stocks are exhausted or go bad. It is relatively easy to produce with common parts and accessories. Hydroelectric, photovoltaic and wind energy would be close behind depending on where you live. The only large grid powering sources I see as viable for long term rebuilding at the state level would be access to hydroelectric power versus natural gas, coal or nuclear power generation.

 

I could see steam powered oil pumping setups. Then steam powered refineries. Slowly electrical power will come back on line but it will be a long time in happening. The good news is, we already have the knowledge, we will just have to re-tool to brig back a normal life style. Should not take more than 100 years, give or take a few years.

 

Morgan 101 - Solar, Wind, or Hydro will basically be it, and maybe a bit of coal and wood. That is why you must buy and set up for multiply ways to take care of your needs NOW. Later is too late. It is going to happen, and those prepared have the best chance of surviving. Money must be used to buy supplies now. The Bible mentions that "they will be tossing their gold and silver in the streets". You cannot eat money, gold, silver, or jewelry. Land, livestock, gardens will be the best chance of surviving. For 90 % of the population in the world, will be gone, even after all that, to continue living...you will need land, water, livestock, and gardens to have a chance of rebuilding a world. I personally do not believe the world will come back, I believe it is the end of days. Just my own personal opinion.

 

Those with mechanical / electrical and other hands on technical skills are going to be in demand in the urban areas, once the the die of has completed. The rural areas are going to need the agricultural and animal husbandry skills. Once the ciaos and th death rate has diminished, then and only then, will society start to rebuild. The liberals will be dead, and many if not most of the conservative will also be dead. The lucky and the prepared will have survived the first and second phase. The urban survivors will need assistance from the rural folks and they will need access to the urban mechanical resources. Those not willing to pull their weight, will be left to their fates. Any surviving criminal better change their habits or become an endangered species. There will not be any jails or prisons, just new scavenger bait.

The old constitution will be replace with a new constitution that has a few new amendments. A Gold backed currency. A mandatory balanced budget except in a National Declared war and then back to a balanced budget after the war has ended. Term limits on all political positions and the electoral college vote applied to every county, nation wide. Never again will cities be able to control a state. All laws will require a 75% majority to be passed by congress. Just wishful thinking for a better future.