What If The End Of The World As We Know It Isn't

Discussion in 'Mental Preparedness' started by TexDanm, May 8, 2019.

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  1. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    The thing that we discuss here is generally a total and permanent collapse of our culture and society even the most basic levels. No food, no water, no communications or governmental assistance.

    The truth is though that there are a lot of bad things that can happen that while testing your preparations and abilities may NOT be permanent. Katrina in New Orleans is an example. A regional emp that takes down the power for a month or two would be a mess. I've seen what a few weeks without power can do to an area and it isn't pretty.

    I know that most of us here would be better off than most but how do you determine whether this is TEOTWAWKI or a localized temporary problem...and what will the difference in your actions be?

    When the power goes down in a large region there is no TV or radio and it is QUIET. In some urban areas there are going to be looters and could be some problems with crime and criminals until the government can get some National Guard into the area.

    Are you going to ride it out where you are at or are you going to bug out temporarily?
     
  2. IBME

    IBME "ALASKAN"
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    I "Bugged'out" 49 years and 5 months ago. I'll just stick and stay, and rideout the storm, be it 3 months or 30 years. I am ready. Bring it.....on.

    Bad Moon Rising
    Creedence Clearwater Revival
    I see a bad moon rising
    I see trouble on the way
    I see earthquakes and lightnin'
    I see bad times today

    Don't go 'round tonight
    For it's bound to take your live
    There's a bad moon on the rise

    I hear hurricanes a blowin'
    And I know the end is coming soon
    I fear rivers overflowing
    I hear the voice for rage and ruin

    So don't go out tonight
    It's bound to take your live
    There's a bad moon on the rise

    I hope you got your shit together
    Hope you are quite prepared to die
    Looks like we're in for nasty weather
    One eye taken for an eye

    Don't go 'round tonight
    It's bound to take your life
    There's a bad moon on the rise

    Don't go 'round tonight
    It's bound to take your life
    There's a bad moon on the rise

    Songwriters: JOHN C. FOGERTY
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2019
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  3. IBME

    IBME "ALASKAN"
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  4. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    I bugged out of a city 20 years ago, its like a ghost town here most of the time so TEOTWAWKI wouldn't look much different.
     
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  5. watcherchris

    watcherchris Master Survivalist
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    With the exception of a heavy EMP...I hope to be able to hoist up a long wire HF antenna or a walkie talkie and temporary external UHF/VHF antenna....to augment the range of my walkie talkie..or even a UHF/VHF base station and get a sampling of what is going on out there...and updated status. This gives me Single Sideband coverage as well on the HF bands as well as UHF/VHF.
    My rigs can also sample the AM/FM broadcasting bands as well as the shortwave bands.

    I also have shortwave receivers which can sample the AM/FM broadcasting bands...also single sideband.

    In a heavy EMP situation I would probably have to resort to monitoring and or transmitting on Morse Code modes.....and possibly try to use over 100 watts of transmitting power if I could get 110 volts AC to work.

    Morse Code, though slower than microphone, can be pretty efficient as far as getting through a noise level.


    But.............................


    All this bearing in mind Op Sec.....

    OP Sec...needs to be kept in mind....meaning a lot of careful receiving ...and carefully at that. Weighing out and deciding..with OP Sec in mind.

    This whether TEOTWAWKI is established or not...

    Been busy here of late...not been on my long range ham gear.

    I would tend to try to ride it out ..but failing that....head to my friends place a state over from here. He is out there in the sticks and has a receiver transmitter set up better than mine.


    My non Ishmaelite .02,
    Watcherchris
     
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  6. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    and whilst your doing all that, who is doing your sowing and planting, cooking and washing, repairing and maintaining, fishing and trapping, scouting and security, and all the other chores that will need doing?;)
     
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  7. watcherchris

    watcherchris Master Survivalist
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    ...those things will have to come first...they come first now....unless one has to bug out...

    Most of this gear is already pre positioned ..pre made..including temporary toss up antennas.

    Fortunately ...single man here...no woman , children, inlaws,..outlaws...low overhead.



    Need to cut grass today.....it's getting way too tall and I hate cutting grass. Trying to figure out how to comfortably carry my GP 100 while operating my riding lawn mower....or mount my .357 lever rifle as one does on a horse.'

    You know...two legged wildlife and all that!!!!


    LOL LOL LOL...

    Watcherchris

    Not an Ishmaelite
     
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  8. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    yep, wise man, keep it simple, keep it basic, the less numbers one has the less one will need. the less tracks going in and out, the harder it will be to find someone.
     
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  9. Morgan101

    Morgan101 Master Survivalist
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    These are a little pricey, but a good choice: https://www.galcogunleather.com/great-alaskan-shoulder-system_8_2_1353.html

    I too would be staying in place, Bugging In. IMHO the rule of law will be one of the first things reestablished. Even at local levels there is a feeling of power for Government Officials, and it is something they are very reluctant to give up. Maybe they would call it a feeling of responsibility to keep the community safe. Even in the worst catastrophes there is a Police and National Guard presence.
     
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  10. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    oh dear, someone is in for a big shock!:)the one thing governments are good at is looking after themselves, the populace come last.
     
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  11. Morgan101

    Morgan101 Master Survivalist
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    No. Not any kind of shock. I expect nothing from the Government but grief. What they will do is try to maintain power and control. Anyplace they can exert that power they will, and any methods they can use to keep that power they will. I don't expect there will be much " due process." If they want to steal something from you they will. No matter how bad things get there will be an element that claims " we are the Government, and we are in charge."
     
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  12. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    that could be said to be how things are now never mind post SHTF.
    but post collapse keeping control wont be so easy without fuel and electricity they wont be able to do more than keep some control, I wont say order, in the one or two big cities, the "London Riots" showed us over here just how quickly TPTB will lose control.
     
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  13. GateCrasher

    GateCrasher Expert Member
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    The first problem already mentioned might be a lack of information to make an informed decision quickly. Another is what cascade failures might occur hours or days after the initial event that might make you wish you'd left sooner, or maybe sorry that you left at all.

    After 9/11 when we lived not far from a major US city our plan was to bugout to the BOL at the first sign of serious trouble locally. Get out fast before the masses got the same idea basically. Kept extra gear packed and ready to grab, and who was responsible for each task to get us on the road quicker while not forgetting anything. It was a 3 hour drive to the BOL under the best conditions, so if we got on the road and found out (on the radio or the police scanner) that it wasn't a serious event we'd just turn around and go back home. Worst case (which wasn't all that bad) was we'd spend the night at the BOL and return the next day.

    Then the 2003 northeast US power blackout happened, in the middle of a weekday. Bit scary at first, working from home and power goes out, turn on the battery operated radio and nothing but static, even on the local AM radio megastation which is a designated FEMA/DHS emergency station with backup power. Wife was working in the yard, comes in and asks me what happened, I said not sure - but we could have just got nuked (and that's still an inside joke of ours whenever the lights go out or the radio stops unexpectedly). There's police chatter on the scanner, but no real info other than the power is out all over town. We start loading the truck to bugout when the radio station comes back on the air, and within just a few minutes is reporting businesses are telling everyone to go home, schools are closing early, and already lots of traffic with traffic lights not working. We were prepped for a power outage so we decide to bug-in - but it was a wake up call, we had alternate routes to the BOL planned and the maps in the truck already, but had it been a more serious event we still might not have made it to the BOL with the truck. We changed our plans a bit after that, but never had the need to actually test them fully. It also played into our decision to get much further from the city too, which we did a couple years later. Now, unless there's a wildfire headed our way, we're bugging in.
     
  14. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    The problem that I fear is the indecision and possible repercussions if you make the wrong choices. The SHTF can be less than global and still have massively long term consequences. Can you imagine the mess that six months without power would make?

    As I was coming home from a run down towards Houston today I met a convoy of electric company trucks. there were a couple of dozen bucket trucks heading towards Houston where it has been flooded again. One place down there has had 14.25" of rain since last Tuesday and lots of places are flooded. The river where I live is about 5' above flood stage right now.

    When something happens along the Gulf coast as soon as the storm passes people from all over come to help just as they did for Katrina and Harvey. This allows them to get back up and operating in a matter of a week or so for most people. Then other people come and start the reconstruction. Imagine though if the disaster was not just a city or area but instead a HUGE region like half the US. There would be no fast recovery and for the people in the small towns, it will be months even after they get the big cities up and running again.

    After hurricanes, you have a few days of people scrambling but in short order the aid rolls in and after that it is at worst inconvenient. It got a hell of a lot more than inconvenient in New Orleans. It was getting close to being ugly here after Rita. The "refugees" (idiots) had the roads blocked and had stripped the stores bare. the delivery trucks couldn't get to the stores to make deliveries because the idiots were parked in the middle of the roads. They were starting to steal anything that wasn't tied down and TRASHED anyplace that was stupid enough to try and help them and let them into their buildings. One local school had over a hundred thousand dollars worth of damage from 5 days of "refugees".

    There won't be any National guard 2trucks coming along to pass out MREs, water, ice, and medical aid. After a week the cops are going to have to take care of their families. After 3 days there will be no food on the shelves ANYWHERE. If it is just the power grid that goes down that means that the people will get in their cars and come flooding out of the big cities and real fast their reception is going to be less than friendly.

    If this was truly The END of the world as we know it your decisions can be based on you not having any future legal repercussions for your actions. Criminals act that way all the time but you are going to have to consider it if you are not certain whether or not this is a temporary thing.

    During a temporary problem, you can afford to be charitable. After Rita people that had lost their power brought a lot of their frozen meat to the local church and they fed two GOOD means a day to anyone that showed up for the entire time. If it isn't going to be temporary you need to get busy and try to save and dry some of that stuff. The people that had opened their buildings to the refugees are in TROUBLE. The idiots are going to DEMAND that you feed them and they don't want soup! If you live near a place that let these people in then you are in trouble and better save what you can and get out. Don't expect much out of the cops. they are only human and they will be overwhelmed immediately. In some cases, they became part of the problem more than any help.

    Honestly, in a truly end of the world situation, most of the idiots that start demanding things will be treated just like a feral dog that is growling at me in my yard. Kill them, run the bodies through the wood chipper and then put them in a future garden field. I don't think that you would want to do that if things were going to go back to some sort of normal in 6 months to a year. What do you do though????
     
  15. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    The temp. duration response will be determined partially by which state you live in. In my beautiful Arizona, it won't matter. Long term, short term or normal times, we are legally allowed to protect ourselves. Those that live in the anti-freedom states, are going to have to be very careful in their responses, which will get many killed by those that don't have to worry or those that won't care. We always planned to use the back hoe, less messy.
     
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  16. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    once the power grid goes down it will be permanent.
     
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  17. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Expert Member
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    Some early morning rambling especially focused to the thread title's "we";

    No TOTAL or permanent collapse is realistic to envision. The permanent collapse of some aspects of culture could be considered desirable for some, eg child marriages, cradle to grave public sector welfare.

    100% correct, Tex Dan ! One's abilities WILL NOT be permanent. Try opening a multi-tool with hand injuries.

    EMP - and geomagnetic disturbances - are being addressed.

    Ref sheltering in place or evacuating; Sometimes it is not an individual's decision. There are mandatory evacuation plans in place. I am not commenting on the quality of the plans; just their existence.

    It's not a small town versus large city competition on priority allocations for recovery aid. It depends on the plans. Elizabeth City, North Carolina is a small city with high priority because of the DHS/Coast Guard regional base. Fourchon, Louisiana is also national high-priority for recovery efforts. Fourchon is the small city supporting LOOP: Louisiana Offshore Oil Port. Simontown and Walvis Bay get priority over large inland RSA cities like the capital Pretoria. Major world trade route are at the top of the pile.

    Lone Wolf, for coastal area, a vessel with electric generating capability can be berthed at the appropriate city.

    ...

    Public safety can be handled.
    Infrastructure rehab might be handled.
    It's the public health issues that need some additional resources - actually all kinds of resources.

    Meanwhile, is Waffle House still open ?
     
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  18. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Response, Reaction and ciaos are all interrelated. Lets look at a grid down. Without the ability to communicate with the civilian population on what has happen, panic will very quickly deteriorate into mob / mass violence. Looting, mugging, killings will happen much faster than any government agency can respond. They won't even be able to communicate with each other, much less inform the population. Think about the PURGE movie, only it does not end in 24 hours.
     
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  19. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Expert Member
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    Good afternoon TMT Tactical,

    There is already a limited ability to communicate with the civilian population. The program is getting enhanced now.

    Public and private roads might be and can be blocked.

    Mob assemblies will learn about the new extreme heat producing non-lethal apparatus - already tested by USMC in Virginia. Government agencies and NGOs - Non-governmental Organizations are available to respond. See Emergency Support Function 13, Public Safety and Security.

    At next Saturday's Virginia meeting, I plan to mention a couple of National Security Presidential Directives. Reagan's got much publicity. The current one is NSPD 9 dated 6 Feb 18.

    To properly balance the above; Yes, there are problems and many aspects have not been tested - but mobs won't assemble that easily, gasoline purchases could be restricted, parking spaces at Walmart, ... ... the big metro cities, like Miami, Chicago, ... their wise have get outta town quick evacuation plans because they read and participate in these types of sites. All the others that aren't wise or mobile ? .........

    I attended a southeast US FEMA meeting a few years ago with a featured speaker telling of his successful lawsuit against the city of New York for failure to have viable plans in place to evacuate the disabled in case of emergency.

    Government cannot do everything. If someone lives on a tidal flood plain and requires weekly medical care.....a different matter. Government can provide for basic public safety and security. When this is deficient, it's less about governmental ability and more so the political questions of exercising the program. Not that much is new under the Sun.
     
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  20. IBME

    IBME "ALASKAN"
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    Everything will be fine here where I live.........no worries.
     
  21. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    LOL, You sound like Alfred E Newman!!!

    When there is a disaster that causes a large area of a power outage they handle it like a medical triage. They try to get the cities up first and the utilities up and running again as fast as possible. If they don't they may have to have a total shutdown and evacuation. They have done this in Texas when a major storm broke down almost every line and pole for hundreds of square miles. The sewers backed up and flooded the ditches and streets and it was decided that it was too messed up for people to live there until they had cleaned up the area and got the water power and sewage lined up again. They cut off ALL utilities and told people to just leave.

    I, living out at the tail end of nowhere was without power for a little over a week but knew people that were out for 5 to 6 weeks. I was fortunate that I live near a major transformer and junction station so got back on faster than people farther away. This was all done and repaired because every electric company in 6 or 7 states sent their line crew here to help. What would it be like if ALL 6 or 7 states were in the same boat?

    In times like this, the local officials are not worth a lot. The needs far excide the ability of local authorities to deal with. The State and Federal Government have to get involved and THAT is a MESS. I suspect that in a problem of near national level disruption that the Feds will make a power grab. Our current Washington based government is trying now for a coup. The FBI and other federal groups are playing politics and are no longer truly responsive to the elected officials. If martial law is ever declared the United States will b DEAD. There may eventually be the Republic of America but it will be a little different from Russia and China with ALL the power located in one place with one group of people.

    When they try to make ALL states like The Peoples Republic of California there will be endless war and we will be done and gone as a major world power. They will throw open the borders and every country on the planet will ship their trash, criminals, and riff-raff here.

    The bad news for the world is that while you may hate the US but, when the only sheepdog left dies the wolves are GOING to come for the sheep. So to some extent, I doubt that there really could be a temporary collapse that the recovered country would be a free Union.
     
  22. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Master Survivalist
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    Generating electric power is OLD technology. I come from Podunk Nowhere Southern Appalachia. Our tiny town had electric trolley cars before 1910. And vacuum tubes allow one full-wave rectification. My dad (born early 1920s the youngest brother) and uncles worked electronics and they were without an education.

    660f6c24477cf524da87aba891697d2c.jpeg
     
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  23. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    @Pragmatist
    All the tech weapons will not help. Uninformed people panic, they have guns and will not hesitate to us them. A 100 man group with non lethal weapons are not going to be a match for a few dozen with firearms. When people do not know what is happening, they fear the worst and they become the worst. Remember, grid down no road signs, no radio, no TV, no internet, no food deliveries, no water, no power, and all the wild rumors start the herd stampeding. NOT the police, or any local agencies will be able to handle the mobs of panicked people. The the government can't handle large local disasters, they darn sure won't be able to handle a national grid down panic.
     
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  24. IBME

    IBME "ALASKAN"
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    I will be fine, There is a fair chance I would not even know anything had happened.

    I have three years of food, and endless pure water, 2,000 gallons of diesel fuel and ten cords of split firewood, and roughly 1,500 unread books. about 12 Coleman two mantel white gas lanterns, and 5 two mantel propane lanterns, massive amount of propane, nine new and seven used two burner propane cookstoves. I have no idea how many white gas cookstoves there are.

    I have six generators, five air cooled gasoline, and one new diesel powerplant that is liquid cooled.

    I have salmon and trout in the river, seals and whales to harvest, Moose, Caribou, Dall Sheep, Mountain Goats, Black Bears and Alaska Coastal Brown Bears that I can eat. Lost of beaver to trap for food. Two traplines, several trapline cabin/shacks. And 49 years and 5 months experience living in the abundant Alaska wilderness.

    Don't worry about me. I'll be fine.......No worries. I spent 60 plus years getting ready for SHTF. What would be my undoing would eventually dying of old age.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
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  25. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Expert Member
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    Good morning TMT Tactical,

    Sidebar: I'm overloaded reading reports on situation in Yuma. That place is a good example of what's needed for individual emergency preparations.

    Our nation's national security apparatus is high quality - when adding the additions like using the NGOs and the more modernized arrangements. For example, the Virginia Marine Police are deputized for Federal (Admiralty) LE work. So, too, the emergency medical responders like paramedics. Arrangements allow for interstate operations.

    So far, riot control has been handled. Won't judge how well; I'm just not knowledgeable in this specific field. I do know public and private roads, water routes and flight paths can be "adjusted" to the situation.

    There always have been uninformed people but a large enough number of them will opt for the free flu shot and meals at a local makeshift health clinic than bring a gun near 30-40 law enforcement vehicles next to NORCOM military vehicles. Even the acid-heads sober up real fast.

    So far, the US has never had a national grid-down situation. We have had large regional problems but the recoveries worked. We're still here. Tested programs for food distribution are in place (not Golden Coral buffet dining).

    To use a double negative: I am not saying you're wrong....but it's not the grid. Join me on the emergency medical care requirement worries. I attend veterans' org meetings and a solid third don't even get free flu shots during nice weather ! Once the illnesses arrive, the mass infections spread rapidly. Avoid restaurants, Walmarts, gasoline stations and other places with large groups of infected people.

    Agree that SOME local agencies are not able to handle major emergencies but it's a physical impossibility to change this situation. The public sector work force has evolved into a welfare program for the unemployable.

    The standard summary is that those private citizens in the general public who prepared will come out from national disasters AOK. Preparedness means mental preparation, getting the basic clothing, the basic equipment.......fire extinguishers aren't mentioned enough here at MSF.com ...... , water, food, medical stuff, repair kits, the extras like tarps, non-area (Repeat: non-area) pulp maps - that Panasonic Toughpad won't be working - and anti-cabin fever material.

    The prepared who are knowledgeable and up to date will successfully continue with life. Those who expect the public sector to provide for everything, ...... Not too much is new under the Sun.
     
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  26. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    ho ho ho, another one that thinks the government will save them.
     
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  27. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    I'm sorry if you took Alfred E Newman comment as a derisive comment. I Didn't mean it that way. I loved MAD Magazine when I was a kid and your statement made me smile. Alfred's byline comment was always "What, Me worry???" I loved it as a kid. I'm pretty sure that you really are one of the most secure of all of us. You and Kieth have bugged out to areas that have a very high chance of going undisturbed in the event of a collapse and have adapted to a harsh environment by learning to live with it.

    I feel pretty secure where I'm at but WILL have people issues that I will and am prepared to deal with. 90 miles isn't as far from Houston as I would like but it was the best choice with maximum benefits for job and lifestyle while still offering a lot of survival type benefits. If I could have dropped everything and gone anywhere that I wished I probably would have gone into the Pacific North West into the Cascade Mountains. Family came first though and I did the best compromise that I could.
     
  28. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    Pragmatist, I know the plans and the general direction that the Government hopes to go in an emergency. It all sounds good and if implemented and everyone did as planned it might work. The problem comes in when you include PEOPLE into the plan and expect them to fall into line with your plan. Also, the Government has some of the stupidest ideas that there are when they are deciding who is in charge. When the BP rig in the Gulf blew out and squirted oil all over the place. OBummer chose a Nobel prize-winning Physicist to lead the cleanup effort. This is typical of the government and not just OBummer. The guy had probably never in his life seen an operating rig and knew nothing about them. He knew even less about the ocean and its ecology. The entire thing was a mess and the idiots are still clueless about what caused I and whee all the oil ended up in the end.

    The thing about plans is that the people high up to make them and then expect the people on the bottom of the pile to carry those plans out. YEAH and the Toothfairy is my wife too! I think that the difference is that you have experience on the top end of things while I have BEEN there at the bottom end watching things fall apart.

    After Katrina whacked New Orleans Rita came to Texas. People were scared after seeing the things that Katrina had done to our neighbors in Louisianna. Galveston and parts of South Houston needed to evacuate. They had a really nice plan where the people in Galveston would evacuate first and then the areas south of Houston and then South Houston and so on. They were very specific in their planning and timing and about what areas needed to evacuate and what areas didn't need to worry about rising water. It was a great plan... And then EVERY FREAKING FOOL IN THE ENTIRE AREA HIT THE ROAD AT THE SAME TIME!!! There were people in North Houston evacuating in mass and from towns north of Houston.

    The poor people in Galveston could barely get off the Island! The closed the South Bound side of I-45 and made both sides all northbound out of Houston towards Dallas. All that ended up doing was setting a record for the biggest traffic jam in History. You had 4 to 6 lanes all going north at a dead standstill for three days! The jam was 114 miles long and if you were in it you were TRAPPED. Most of those idiots left home with a soft drink, a bag of chips and a 1/4 tank of gas. They panicked and if they were near a town or store they bought everything. One guy bought over a hundred bottle of water from a convince store here for a dollar and a half apiece!

    I have seen this more than once though I must say the Rita mess was beyond any other for sheer size and stupidity.
     
  29. GateCrasher

    GateCrasher Expert Member
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    Similar situation to the blackout I mentioned above. No evacuation ordered, but with traffic lights out the expressways were jammed with off-ramp traffic backed up onto the expressway and on-ramp traffic backed up onto the surface streets. Trying to cross a multi-lane road anywhere was difficult to impossible, 4 lanes of east/west traffic wouldn't stop to allow a vehicle heading north/south to cross. Every intersection became malfunction junction. With that, and many gas stations without power to pump gas, people were running out of gas sitting in traffic and then disabled vehicles in the roads made everything worse. Total fuster-cluck.

    Part of my solution if it ever happened again (or something much worse), was this.

    1206a4d31416a02dcf5421f6203fc3f8.jpeg

    If we got trapped in traffic then leave the truck and finish the bugout on the bike. It'd be a lot more maneuverable between cars, on the shoulder, in the ditch, on sidewalks, through fields, etc. Attaching the hitch carrier and loading/securing the bike takes less than 20 minutes, and it's still part of our plan if we had to bugout now (if we had the extra time).
     
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  30. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Now take a look at how Rita was handled and take that to a national level. Then add in the fact there is NO COMMUNICATION being provided to the public, NO NEWS updates. No food, water, fuel, sewer system, medical response, fire response, police response and you will have a national riot, not just some localized disaster. Without electricity, how are the various agencies going to even begin to communicate with each other, much less coordinate a response? Remember the the government only has about 3 days before folks are dying from thirst. Where are the medical supplies and personnel coming from? Where are the food and water supplies coming from? How is the government going to even establish their priority response plan, No visual communication, only some radio communication. Clocks ticking and folks will be dying. Remember, no power equal no fuel and the emergency vehicles don't roll. Does anybody really think the people will just stand around while the authorities suck up all the fuel? Doubtful. When the grid goes down, it will be too late to bug out. No place to go and no way to get there.
     
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  31. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    It is like that old saying in the military that no plan ever survives contact with the enemy. There is a reason why the military has so many "nice" descriptions for big planned actions. SNAFU, FUBAR Cluster F**K... They KNOW from experience that the best-laid plans of mice and men go down the tubes as soon as things go bad.

    It often seems that the "assistance " and "directions" that the Government comes up with are as much a hindrance as a help. Most of the time they come out with revised plans after things have blown up that are unimplementable at the time the change is decided on.

    The only thing more useless than the government during a disaster is the Red Cross.

    PS: That bike is THE definitive tool for one person evacuation! I wish that they still made the old "scrambler" bikes that were roadworthy but also had a little extra ground clearance and the pipes were up. I had one and it went everywhere. I had road and trail rear tire on it and would run in the sand and mud right alongside the full-on dirt bikes. Then it was fine on the streets and highways.

    The good old days...

    THxPTl5ioii7v-n7qi4NgHfBtATzhfSd.jpeg
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
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  32. IBME

    IBME "ALASKAN"
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    No.........I did NOT take it that way at all......Zero. We are cool.
     
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  33. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Off track. I bought the first Honda 350 scrambler sold in the SF bay area. I also had the first 350 scrambler totaled in the SF Bay Area. Love the bikes but they are not for me.
     
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  34. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Expert Member
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    Good morning Tex Dan ,

    National planning, testing and actual use are, basically speaking, - working - and being improved upon. A key to understanding what's going on is to determine what is important and what is not.

    In reality - not what was reported - Deep Water Horizon - was a regional emergency with national implications and the results were semi-decent from the national perspective. BP accepted the static and moved on to join Rostneft, Russia and the dividend checks still arrived at Americans bank accounts who had their investments with 'em. The national population fared OK. The US national economy continued.

    It's changed. There is collective experience at the top and also at the bottom. Some of the bottom and middle are EXCLUDED - on purpose. Live on a tidal flood plain or below water level in New Orleans and the results are predictable. The welfare state is being disestablished. The party's over.

    Katrina, Rita, Maria - and the others - are NOT the problems. Don't forget the Texas Coastal Wind insurance program. Results are predictable. Evacuation plans and the results were predictable ... still are. Now for the bad news:

    Where do "they" evacuate to ? Place a stressed crowd, some with injuries, in an emergency shelter, and presto: diseases crop up.

    The foolish and unprepared gt trapped in traffic. Others don't.

    Tex, I'm not singling out the Gulf Coast. It's the same here. We are working 24/7 to address some of this.

    We are an unprepared nation and without national efforts to successfully get prepared, social Darwinism sets in.

    Let's not forget California's residential earthquake insurance (please don't laugh) program. Guess who pays for this !

    This Saturday at our eastern Virginia MSF.org meeting, I'm bringing a couple of specific topics to (briefly) discuss.

    Again; the welfare state is being closed down.

    The party's over.
     
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  35. poltiregist

    poltiregist Master Survivalist
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    What we have here is people preparing for different levels of a disaster . This doesn't make them not preppers or survivalist but makes them focused on different levels . I consider a few months without power or a store just a bump in the road . My focus is going indefinitely with no stores , no government , no electricity , no outside help . That I suppose puts me in the apocalypse nut group .
     
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  36. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    nope, it puts you in the long term survival group.
     
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  37. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    I don't doubt that the "plans" and general testing work well. I remember the fire drills at school. I also remember the chaos that ensued the one time that there was a fire and everyone panicked. Fortunately it was nearly all smoke but nonetheless, the neat lines and orderly exits were nowhere to be found.

    People are NOT smart. Most people are worse than useless in an emergency. The Government can plan all that they want but they can't change basic human stupidity. DuingRita, MOST of the people that were stuck in that 114-mile long traffic jam were people that should not have left their homes. The people that NEEDED to be heading north COULDN'T because the idiots blocked the roads.

    It is just the way people are. Let one person stand up in a theater start screaming FIRE...FIRE and even if the fire is a napkin on fire that is stomped out in seconds you may have many people hurt because they all rush to the exit and trample each other.

    In an emergency situation people panic and it becomes "every man for himself" and that messes up all the nice plans for an orderly response.
     
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  38. CountryGuy

    CountryGuy Expert Member
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    Tex, Your wishes are granted. Scramblers are huge right now. Ducati, Triumph, BMW, Royal Enfield, I think Honda and Yamaha have ones too or have bikes that with a few aftermarket mods can be real close to the Scrambler high pipe style you like

    upload_2019-5-14_21-20-21.jpeg upload_2019-5-14_21-20-39.jpeg

    0eb7d36b15461728f5c7a41d8cf4d275.jpeg

    upload_2019-5-14_21-26-51.png

    upload_2019-5-14_21-27-22.jpeg
     
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  39. CountryGuy

    CountryGuy Expert Member
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    Back to the OP one thing I've contemplated for some time is a regionalized black out, say a grid hack that blows out the grid in the northeast or west coast. Say hackers/ terrorists knocked out the grid in those regions blowing out transformers, transfer stations, power plants etc... and lets say it's estimated best case it'll take 9mo to a year to get it back up. How likely do you think all those people are going to sit there and wait it out. so what happens in the rest of the country that is unaffected gets swarmed by useless masses, many who will be expecting handouts. At some point do the bordering areas set up roadblocks and perimeters to keep the locust from overrunning them?
     
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  40. IBME

    IBME "ALASKAN"
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    OK........here is another one. Yellowstone Starts getting progressively more active. Just more active, not even a moderate eruption. But getting progressively more and more active. More and more evening news about what "Might or Could Happen". The full extent of what is possible, how catastrophic it might be.

    As more and more people start to get out of the way, more and more people start getting more and more concerned. Still no significant eruption, but people are scared, companies are closing "Temporarily" they say. Farms and crops are abandoned, food shortage is a reality, yet still no massive eruption.

    You could have a third of the American population move out of potential danger.
    ....................Exactly where do one hundred and fifteen "MILLION" go................?

    Still no big eruption........just getting more and more active. Might never actually erupt, but people are scared. What if one hundred and seventy million choose to move out of potential harms way. What exactly is the Goberment going to do, What could the Goberment do...??? Every road in North America could be solid packed with dead vehicles and dead people.

    And still no significant eruption. Just fear of what could happen.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2019
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  41. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Expert Member
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    Good morning Tex Dan,

    You clearly presented the problem. It is factored into the governmental planning and the private citizen planning of those private citizens who understand how life works. How many people drive nice cars without a fire extinguisher ?!

    It's a Donald Rumsfeld "known known" that weather emergencies...and some other categories...produce 114 mile long traffic jams. Knowledgeable private citizens shelter in place or evacuate EARLY. There will always be the problems and this is factored into one's knowledge-base.

    Do remember we're working on six decades of neglect. Build a subsidized house on North Carolina's Outer Banks and wait until the last moments to evacuate...It's a known-known that the Responders can't reach the children in a car on fire in some traffic congestion.

    It takes time to correct our society's ills.
     
  42. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Expert Member
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    Interesting and important questions posed, Country Guy and IBME........

    No one is going anywhere via motor vehicle if and when gasoline sales are rationed. Recall the early 1970s Arab oil embargoes and gas rationing.

    Even prior to 115M people moving anywhere, routine injuries of life...broken bones, changed optic pressure, dental pain,...occur. The big danger is infectious diseases occurring. Our population is not that healthy.

    The health care quarantine laws could be exercised. There's a new name used in Virginia and a few other states: "Social Distancing".
     
  43. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
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    nobody is going anywhere in a motor vehicle once the electrical power is down, most people over here drive on empty and only look for a filling station once the fuel warning light comes on, with no power to pump fuel they will go nowhere.
     
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  44. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    I have read several really good "What If" scenarios but no definitive plans posted about how the Government would actually be able to respond. Several platitudes but no real actual valid plans. In each of the posted scenarios , the government would fall flat on it face and ciaos would reign supreme. What law would / could be used to stop people from moving out of one part of America to another part of America? How do you stop Grandma Jones from going to live with her children and just what do you think is going to happen when th government tries to stop Grandma Jones? None of the posted scenarios involved any pandemic threat, so it does not pose a health hazard, unless they are Californians then you could get them on mental health issues. How do. could you stop the people fleeing from possible danger or loss of electricity? Now you know why the liberals want to disarm America. With their spend, spend, spend budgets, the infrastructure and the available response personnel will fail when it is needed the most. Budget cuts to pay for 'Free Lunch" programs are the start of the domino effect.
     
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  45. GateCrasher

    GateCrasher Expert Member
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    re: infectious disease/quarantine, potentially each city limit, county line, or state border might be ordered closed to stop refugees from entering from infected areas. Whether it's under order from a governor and enforced by police or the National Guard, by a local county sheriff under his own authority, or just local citizens deciding to block roads with tractor trailers or school buses in an effort to protect their community. Even the "best case" might be screening everyone for symptoms before allowing them to enter, which could take a long time.

    Another reason for the motorcycle, or any alternate means of travel fast(er) than your feet, is to distance yourself from groups of refugees either sheltering in their trapped vehicles on the highway or those choosing to leave on foot. People will group up, once a few start leaving their vehicles and trying to walk to safety others will follow like sheep. Best to not be in that group but well in front of them.
     
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  46. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Expert Member
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    When Grandma Jones' Social Security check and Medicare Part B are only valid when she lives in ZIP Code xxxxx, then Grandma Jones will not move in with the kids.

    A key matter being neglected here at MSF.com is the BIG field of COG; continuity of government. As much as we research on matters such as the best megaphone, the best blade type, there are those studying and discussing COG.

    ROFL......TMT, you made my day ! Californians - the mental problem - Isn't it mostly restricted to Sacramento and the SFO Board of Supervisors who forbid the use of face recognition software for law enforcement ?!

    After the Paradise forest fire, the displaced didn't arrive in Pacific Palisades and Malibu. Something kept them away.

    Can't reply to other points as of now.
     
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  47. Pragmatist

    Pragmatist Expert Member
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    Exactly on target, Gate Crasher !

    At this Saturday's eastern Virginia MSF.com "get-together", I already photocopied an article re the San Jose flooding circa 2017. The pertinent quote: "Only residents who could show they had been cleaned off were allowed to board buses to a shelter for those displaced by the floodwaters".

    In Virginia - probably all the states and the insular possessions - District Health Directors have law-enforcement authority in re the health subjects. Their authority was recently expanded because of the new bioterrorism "concerns".

    A get outta town fast kit must always include medical records for eg immunizations, etc.
     
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  48. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    Knowledgable people that act in a sane and orderly manner in times of high stress and disaster probably account for at BEST 10% of any given population. The government may plan for them to line up and go like baby ducks following Mama but when they get stressed they will act more like a covey of quail scattering out in all directions.

    I can envision ways to better handle this but it would take draconian measures. Sheep are herded by sheepdogs. They enforce the desires of the shepherd with the sheep's fear of nips and bites. They act like predators and the sheep respond to that.

    Honestly, I am not sure that our type of government has the ability to correct the "ills" of its people. basically, the problem is that the patients have taken over the asylum. The people that ARE the problem are electing people that encourage those ills. The other problem is that is a part of this is that the people elected are also part of the patients in the nut house and a BIG part of the problem.

    This was never the intentions of the founding fathers. Our Democracy has become an idiots circus. We are getting closer and closer with each election to electing someone that has the stated intention of basically destroying our country. Eventually, I think that they will accomplish their objectives.

    We have elected people that are in our congress that plan to try and turn the US into some weird sort of Green Candy Land even if it means that we collapse the economy and there are o jobs. We have elected officials in office that claim that thoughts of the Holocaust make them feel warm and fuzzy. There are people elected that have known connections to terrorist Islamic groups.

    People are dumb as a box of rocks and all the plans in the world fail when you try to build with bricks that melt in the rain...
     
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  49. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
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    This happens really FAST. During Rita's aftermath, they actually blocked the bridge over the river in the little town that I live near. The local cops just shut it down. they had blocked the streets to the point that it was impossible to even cross the highway at intersections. The idiots were bumper to bumper even in the middle of the intersections. There they sat with their engines running until they either ran out of gas or their motors overheated.

    I also heard that there were places that blocked the EXIT ramps off the interstate highway when the idiots had done this to other little communities.

    Rita and Katrina killed a bunch of people. In neither case was this like a surprise that snuck up on them. Everyone watched for at least a week as it closed in on its target. They begged people in New Orleans to evacuate and did the same on Galveston Island and the coastal beach communities. They just sat there until the last minute when it was too late and then wanted the local government to come to rescue them. It was too late and the best that they could do for them was to tell them to write their social security number all over their bodies with a permanent marker to make IDing their bodies easier.

    In the event of a long term problem like a loss of power that is going to last for several months the best that the Government can do is get the military in as soon as they can to referee the ugly that is going to quickly become epidemic in portions. Anarchy and chaos are always just under the surface waiting to pop out the second that there is an oppertunity for them to return. That seems to be mankinds defaut setting...
     
  50. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
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    Grandma Jones will bug out if and when she is good and ready. S.S. will not have a clue where she is, because of direct deposit. My S.S. is direct deposit and I can draw for anywhere, I choose to live or anywhere I choose go. I also doubt too many are going to worry about updating the government, when the choice maybe stay and BBQ or head down the road.

    Now let's look at the Midwest grid down. Are the folks going to hang around and die of thirst and hunger or load up their supplies and firearms and head for where the power is still on. Once a few county mounties turn back a few folks, a group my just form up and eliminate the mounties. Last survey, 1.2 firearms per every individual in America. People wanting out are going to find a way. Panic has no limits or boundary's.
     
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