Fear Of Preppers

Good morning Dale,

My view from experience is around 5% to 15% of responders - National Guard, Emergency Responders, LEO will arrive to augment the armories, Emergency Operations Centers, the police stations - and the related eg Volunteer Fire and Rescue stations. Again: I've worked with an initial, at best, 5-15%.

This 5-15% had working plans for family/kids. These plans worked. I am fully aware that the 95% - 85% numbers mean danger zones. Can this be rectified ? I can't place everything I've seen or learned about in after-action meetings here on the web.

There is a current big push to have emergency evacuation centers open pre-emergency for family members. I have negative views on this but my view is limited.

Do recall why I've mentioned a couple of times planning views involving " Jinassaries ". A modern member of an expeditionary force or emergency responder unit really cannot have a family. I've held off writing this so bluntly. The Israeli and Chinese models are being studied.

Currently, there are some limited opportunities for safe-haven work assignments for family members of some military, emergency responders, ... rest of our small community. It's fully known and understood to be limited. This has less to do with Federal government efforts and more so with our new population demographics.

You said it: "senior NCO's and officers dependents..."

True: "when the trucks stop delivering food,fuel,goods..."

Dale, so far, Middle America's small middle class of those keeping the place together HAVE RESPONDED AND KEPT THE CHAIN OF COMMAND semi-intact. I envision, based on experience and the pulse of the middle class knowledgeable public that matters will be resolved by action to maintain the governmental functions as best and realistic as possible. It will be messy but withing a COG chain of command.

Do we see a change in the family arrangement ? If we look at the recent history, we see the change. If the family members do not modernize - such as becoming preppers, have a small group for child care during emergencies, teaching all this to the kids, ...

Many sacrifices to old arrangements occurring now. Many pending.

A pandemic or a war will surely expedite the adjustments.

My family is all "prep-qualified" and well-rehearsed - and used - arrangements for split-ups. Others also have these arrangements. I am only discussing 5% to 15% of our national population.

All the rest is unknown.

 

Good Morning Pragmatist,

Responding to this quote" There is a current big push to have emergency evacuation centers open pre-emergency for family members. I have negative views on this but my view is limited."

This is part of the flaw --- An EMP would not provide any warning or time to open any emergency evacuation centers or any other type of emergency shelters. All communication with the civilian population would be lost. The population will be like the three blind mice, blind deaf and dumb. They will not know what happen, what to do about what happen and dumb-ed down about how to cope for themselves. People trapped on base will be worried about their dependents trapped off base. They will not have any method to communicate with dependents, which leaves only one method, go and assist their families. Emergency member trapped off base will not have any viable transportation methods to return to base, even if they wanted. Now if it is a CME, there will be some warning time but most of it will be wasted debating the magnitude of the event and the proper response. Too long for it to really help the COG.

As pointed out by Dale, resupply will be limited or non-existent. There will be a critical shortage of manpower. As per Mr.Murphy's law, anything that could go wrong, will go wrong. Unfortunately, in the event of a national grid down, the things that go wrong will have dramatic effects on any possibility of a COG. I think in all reality, the remaining functioning military will be re-routed to a central point within the continental USA and the vast majority of the nation will be left to fend for itself. The government might technically exist, but for the majority of the Americans, it will have expired, along with the electricity.

 

Good morning TMT,

There would be a warning time re EMP. An EMP means international confrontation and some people are quietly opening up key emergency facilities to include shelters. It is not a flaw. A national "grid down" or, for that matter, a national nuclear confrontation, less the Cuban Missile Crisis, has not been experienced. All areas of the nation are not deemed critical.

5% - 15% of the national population are prepared and ready as of today. For 85% not being prepared and not knowing what to do has little with the with the Federal government. Virginia teaches some of this but cannot force learning and preparedness. The Feds and Virginia do attend to the needs of the disabled children, some hospitalized patients (evac plans are still in prep and being worked on-difficult with our current population demographics) and a couple of other categories.

For 80 plus of our national population, not knowing what to do, has little to do with the Federal government. Our TexDanm said to participate in politics. I attend the emergency planning meetings, local, regional, state and Federal and they are typically empty (less contractors) of people. This is the situation throughout the nation.

Any "trapped" on bases will not be able to leave - no transportation nor authority to leave. Enhanced enforcement present.

I agree: a critical shortage of manpower, much will go wrong.

The military is already decentralized and with hardened facilities-some off-grid. Navy Norfolk is prepared and the Palace Guard Quantico is prepared. The Gulf Coast LOOP to Houston is better prepared than Ft Knox.

A majority of Americans CAN prepare ... the resources are present but declined ... those disabled living alone must relocate to places that can care for them, those with medical needs eg O2 must relocate to group settings for 24/7 support and economies of scale savings - O2 replenishment is costly (and mostly publicly funded),... In Virginia, we've already started the integration of disabled children into our emergency programs. We have other programs - still small because of the lack of personnel - but they are present.

Much of our nation is one big welfare check supporting housing, cooling in summer for the needy (I walked out of a meeting when hearing a testimonial about this - Madam and I ration electric use), food, entertainment, and etc.

Soon, review "Social Darwinism".

The party's over.

 

Afternoon Pragmatist.

I do agree during a national grid down, "Social Darwinism", "Financial Darwinism" and "Medical Darwinism" will immediately go in to effect. Yes the public could be prepared but a little over half of these idiots voted for Hillary, so you can tell they are not grounded in reality. In a grid down event, it will not be a "Government of the People, for the people and by the people". It will be a select few to be protected by a select few. To me that is not a government but just a Warlord fiefdom. Even that plan may fail due to not protecting the families and dependents. I think your 5 to 15 percent responding is going to be way too high. The plans do not take full account of human nature, human frailties and the full effect of Mr. Murphy and his effect on the plan. A hardened site surrounded by a few million starving , angry folks is just a target, not an invincible fortress. What guard is not going to open the front gate, when the mob parades his family out front and center? Many of these service personnel have neighbors and those neighbors will not hesitate to take the families hostage to gain access to the perceived food and fuel supplies, located withing the hardened sites. The plan fails because it the people in charge do not provide the same level of protection to the troops and the families of the troops. In a national grid down, money has no value, promotion has no value, career advancement has no value, patriotism will have very limited value as there is no enemy to fight. The motivation will be to survive and the survival of family.

Now "Emergency Evac Center" is that a P.C. (Politically Correct) way of describing FEMA Refugee Camps? Any Emergency Evac Center not situated inside a military post, would be over run is the first few days. Even Police stations will become prime targets for their weapon caches. Military bases are not designed to be self sufficient for the long term. Personnel on bases will become trapped hostages and will need supplies that will have to pass through or over armed civilians. It does not take a rocket scientist or even a military genus to understand any U.S, base can be over run by the local population. The base personnel are confined, the civilians have all the surrounding resources to use in an attack. I am sure that a few (very few, due to logistics) bases will be held, after the military has been consolidated but even that is in doubt. I can see some military bases siding with the population and forming a new militia and eventually challenging the politicians that abandoned them. Bottom line, I think 98% of the American population will be left to fend for themselves.

 

What I find interesting is that the very top of the most knowledgeable preppers, choose.......of their own free will to disregard what they know in their heart and mind is a more prudent course of action. Including many on this elite prepping forum.

They all have wonderful justifications.

 

Good morning TMT,

I only scribble what I participated in (eg 5-15% rate) over the years and my personal, limited involvement in certain categories of events eg riot control, oil embargoes, base (and corporate) lock-downs.

Much beyond my rambling is conjecture. Who knows what epidemic disease levels will do ? Won't even discuss a pandemic. I've been separated from my family during my career's projects and always accepted dire consequences occurring. I grew up in this environment.

Only accurate GUESSES can be presented as to what might or could happen.

What's the difference between a Federal form of government on the charts and a warlord fiefdom on the charts ?

An assembly of "a few million" is not realistic. Mobility means walking / hiking. Personal health and nourishment preclude large assemblies. Again, recall that under discussion involves water, food, medical matters. Family structures dissolved prior to this. The WWII stories were true.

Government - and Corporate - security personnel are one of the strong aspects of emergency operations.

I cannot envision any mob successfully obtaining the arsenals of law enforcement agencies.

Some military - and corporate - bases / facilities ARE self-sufficient for long terms.

I do recommend you review "...the civilians have all the surrounding resources to use in an attack."

 

Good Afternoon Pragmatist.

Good points. Now to address some of them.. Without any normal means of communications, a mob could be raised with just the use of a megaphone. Walking through neighborhoods and announcing your group was headed to get food and fuel, will attract followers. As the word is spread from person to person, that there is food and fuel to be had, the starving will follow, like the sheep they are. As for police station, who is going to stop the gangs and their followers from capturing the stations. Not likely many cops will be on duty at the station, during a national grid down. Resources to attack a corporate and government structure. Armored cars come to mind, they don't have to be driven, they can be pushed. Makes real good shooting platforms. Fire can be launched from great distances. Look at the Cartels and the weapons they have and have used. The starving masses will always find leaders. All the resources surrounding military bases can be brought to bear. Also I did not see any reply regarding military troops opening fire on women and children to prevent them from getting food.

As for the Government and Warlord fiefdoms, I see no difference once they have abandoned the people. As far as I am concerned, they lost all legal and more importantly, moral standing by leaving the country to fend for themselves. Now can the government protect all the people, absolutely not. But the prime job of the government is to do exactly that, protect all the people. Can the government greatly reduce the damage, absolutely but they have not and will not do what it takes. So when it does hit the fan, they just become local Warlords, hiding at their hardened sites. The COG is based on past events and has a limited chance of success. There is no loyalty to any corporation and when the fiat money is worthless, the only value the corporation has to the employees, is food or fuel. Those items will simply be taken by those that know of it's location. When the grid goes down for the final count, it will become "Every man, women and child" for themselves. Past employment loyalty (ended as soon as the power went off) and Oaths (ended when the government abandoned the citizens) will mean nothing. Survival and survival of the family will be all that counts.

 

I would like to suggest that anyone interested in this thread would profit from reading this link that "Pragmatist" posted in another thread.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/12/03/550039.htm

 

TMT, Fortunately I don't see many scenarios that could effect the nation as a whole. A big one that has been mentioned "Grid down" on a national level could have one of two effects. If it's a natural EMP that hits the planet I see things progressing as described in the above post. If though, the cause is a thermonuclear war, and America is attacked. Things may well go very different. American's are the most hard headed, determined and vengeful people when attacked that the world has ever seen. Life here at home would be bad. Very bad. But American's are willing to sacrifice if it helps kill our enemies. Were just that way.

The scenarios I actually dread are a pandemic, Yellowstone super eruption or a major meteorite strike. To me, everything else is survivable if your prepared and have your mind right.

Dale

 

@Dalewick

Anything short of a National Grid down and the government can and will survive. Pandemic will be bad but Americans can and will pull together. Even with a meteorite or Yellowstone event and many if not most of America will survive and again pull together. Americans are the most fearsome people on earth but also the most determined. The national grid down event is where the government loses all control and the people are left to fend or themselves. I think the rural communities will survive and eventually recover. The cities and big population centers will collapse and become salvage sites. Federal and state governments will be past memories. Local military that did not turn on the citizens will help form the new local governments. National governments will be centuries away from forming again. A new and better constitution will be written and life will go on. JM2C

 

America would be captured.......and likely welcome it.

 

I don't think so, the invaders would be seen as a new food source (the supplies they would bring -- not cannibalism). They would make very easy targets. We as the most powerful military in the world could not beat the North Vietnamese. Russia could not beat the Afghans and America is much better armed as a nation than either of those countries. American just set a new record for gun purchase background checks. Thanks to the Democrats and their anti-gun laws,we are better armed then ever before. There is little advantage to invading a country if you also have to feed the current inhabitants.

 

Good morning TMT,

We are using 2 different "visuals" of the socio-economic-political landscape during and after an EMP.

Immediately pre and during and immediately after an EMP, national authorities staff the critical infrastructure and certain other infrastructure not national-critical. This staff is partly drained away from non-critical functional/geographic areas. Most already in place. These people are prepared to include psychologically prepared. Other areas of the nation could experience being "written off". There will be public service announcements (PSA) for mandatory evacuations.

Only certain roads receive maintenance and support (removing wrecked vehicles, removing the dead, stopping truck HAZMAT fires. In practical terms, the road(s) is no longer a conduit for transport even for walking. Dead bodies and disease must be avoided. What dogs and bats would not be rabid ?

Post EMP, urban and suburban fires in designated areas will not be responded to. Airports, with no flight operations, become Responder staging areas. Dialysis clinics,dental offices, optical shops, local pharmacy stores are closed down and their skilled staffers - most on the Fed/state registries (forgot name of document) will be re-assigned if not holding other emergency medical support services.

Key police stations, to include the Federal ones - many here - are already fortified and prepared. On notice, the auxiliaries get activated. There are many, relative to the need.

Had already mentioned I don't reply to some subject-matter material.

TMT, ... You personally cannot make determinations on "abandonment", "legal standing", "moral standing", "the success rate of COG", "loyalty". So far...past and current tense...the situations were/are accepted in the basics.

My biggest fear is epidemics / pandemic. I view our nation's biggest weakness as mass medical care. The sick infect those nearby. They won't be walking around looking for food and water. Very few private citizens have PPE, ,,, not even work gloves. Missed dialysis, dental pain, changed optic pressure, fell off roof still holding tarp, severe burns - saw all this.

The nation can handle an EMP but not support to a population with more wide screen televisions than food supplies, nice late model cars but no warm socks and sturdy boots, no concern outside of themselves like those living on Ocracoke Island, next to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

When personal health care consists of a pack of spicy V-8 juices in the morning after a drunken stupor sleep, the public sector cannot redeem this segment of the population nor are the funds available to do so.

The party's over.

 

Afternoon Pragmatist
My responses will be in dark blue and bold, for ease of reading. Click on quoted post to see full response.

The party started to end when we elected President Trump. Pragmatist, I hope you don't feel I am attacking you personally. You make many outstanding and valid points. As with every pancake, there are always two sides and I hope the members are willing to look at both sides. During a normal disaster, all the plans you describe would be very valid. It is only the sudden loss of all communication and power in a national grid down that changes the equations. I do appreciate your posts. I also admit I sometimes have trouble deciphering some of your comments, but then again I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

 

Good afternoon TMT,

Concur; Trump is ending the socialists' party.

No, of course not. I understand this is only a discussion involving sensitive dread subjects: death, disease, permanent injuries, lost family members. We're not discussing plans for the fish fry.

Actually, we've got more than 2 sides to all this. What if the nation experiences a natural disaster such as a pandemic and a hostile or group of hostile nations wages forms of warfare against us ?! The aspirin won't eliminate the headaches nor will the sour mash bourbon.

We've never had a nuclear war nor a recent major war on US landmass so we're all just guessing the best we can. Frequently I do not write clearly. You are as sharp as the folks at the national meetings.

I've day-dreamed of MSF having "chapters" where regional meetings can be in person for real discussion and we can distribute our extra subject-matter pamphlets and related. Then discuss.

Is blue on black screen better for eyes than white letters on black ?

Are the "computer screen" non RX glasses sold at Walmart concession optical company of any value for long times at screen ?

......

A foot note; Some material I just can't discuss on the web for various reasons.

 

Afternoon Pragmatist.

I am glad you do not take it personal, as it is not intended to be. As for the font color and bold, that was to make it easier for folks to understand what you were saying verses my replies. I do understand that with your relationship to the disaster community, there are somethings better not said. Fortunately being a loose cannon I am free to post anything that pops into my ancient mind, scary huh.