The Coming Starvation

Good afternoon Dale,

I catch much of your sarcasm. It's healthy.

A personal rule I follow - only works at sites with knowledgeable, well-traveled people - is to give the most favorable interpretation to the post. What some might think is a "slight" or insult just might be the writer's normal writing technique.

Believe I have COVID-19. ... many of the symptoms but respiration is fine. It initially felt like getting a renewal Yellow Fever shot. My actual COVID problem is that I'm old, concurrent with running around like a 20 year old.

 

A good article on TEOTWAWKi today on " The Organic Prepper " written by Daisy Luther . Title of the article " We Want Be Getting Back To Normal - Not Ever " . She never uses the prepper word Teotwawki but her outlook is clear . She considered her prediction very dark but frankly mine is even much darker than what she was willing to write .

 

Good afternoon Poltiregist,

Just read the link.

I don't think it's dire; just realistic.

My preparedness involved - and still does - the matters she presented.

I do not, however, think the USG "lied" to the public. National statements were surely managed so as to prevent mass panics concurrent with major changes in our society; social, economic and political. The public can not handle "the truth". Even without the pandemic the nation is still insolvent and under pressure to reform. CalPERS and the New York State Public Pension program might be joining the Pony Express in the history books.

"Enjoyed" reading the expression "lord-and-serf relationship".

For some years have been following the US Postal Service. Yes, this event will close them down but not in June. Big events are on hold until next year when the rural post offices leave the scene, then followed by the many others. Have you noticed that much less junk mail is sent out ?

Had received emails that more than 10K NYC responders were sick. This shouldn't be shocking. That whole place is an infection zone with no viable city government. When the Mayor of NYC makes the NY Governor appear as a statesman, the word to describe this situation is "scary".

It was a good article and basically accurate. I'm as ready as can be.

 

I couldn't find a specific link. Crikey, she's written a lot of books though!

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...extra-40-000-people-volunteer-pick-crops.html

I think it would be a good idea if farms allowed people to pick their own. This way they can practice social distancing and people can get the fruit/veg that they need. They could set up a system whereby the produce is weighed and then paid for.

I was going to suggest the system they have here, whereby local markets/farms set up a stall out the front and have an "honour" box, which works well. However, after seeing the post from Gold Geezer with the cars queuing for miles for free food, I'm thinking the majority of people will just take advantage, raid the farms and not pay for produce. Which is a shame. It would certainly solve the worry of having staff risking exchanging money and exposing themselves to the virus.

 

Good afternoon Blitz,

https://www.theorganicprepper.com/getting-back-to-normal/

If looking for the article Poltiregist discussed, this is it.

I thought it was well worth reading.

 

Great, thanks Pragmatist. I'll have a read.

Edit: I did read the article and it was very interesting. Pretty much what I expect to happen. In fact, there are already signs of some points discussed coming to fruition. With social distancing so strict, complete lockdown, police being heavy-handed, not to mention the psychological aspects of suddenly losing jobs, stability and security, scarcity of food, etc - it's only a matter of time before violence breaks out in my opinion.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...emand-warn-run-millions-Americans-hungry.html

Mexico warming up

https://apnews.com/5625bb27578887acbb834bd99bfccaaa

Crimes up in U.S. cities

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/brons...ise-after-stay-at-home-orders-issued-n2566244

 

Multiple and perhaps all of the major meat processing facilities have now closed in the U.S. . This may take a few weeks but a major meat shortage in food markets likely to be the result . I suppose most saw the storm and multiple tornados ripping through the southern region of the U.S. dumping even more rain on the already saturated delta farm land along the Mississippi river delta region . Now even more likely crops will not be planted in that region and supplied to the consumers " including exports " . Rumor but no verification livestock ranchers are trying to unload livestock as economy collapses . Normally spring is the time ranchers want more livestock to fatten them up on grass during the summer not trying to unload them . If this is so something is very wrong with the ranching business . I had heard but got verification today , many agriculture crops are , or will be rotting in the fields with not enough labor to harvest the crops .---The unprepared will be facing hard times and perhaps starvation . The prepared will have to be able and willing to guard and protect their resources .

 

Blitz I like the honor box idea but unfortunately in most locations the inhabitants are too crudy with no honor for that to succeed . However that system is used in some places in my living region . Produce sometimes is placed beside a road with the price on a hand written sign and a can placed to put money in . I buy fire wood in a similar manner . I put my money in a plastic bucket hanging on a fence and load up my wood . There are sometimes hundreds of dollars in that bucket waiting for the owner to come by and pick up . In either of the above examples are anyone around to keep an eye on their business . I buy my wood and save my trees for the apocalypse .

 

A good article in " Zero Hedge " today by " Tyler Durden " on the seed shortage . People are planting what they are calling " pandemic gardens " . Within the article " Morgan Stanley is predicting a second corona virus wave . Zero Hedge can probably be found on google . I will do a "I told you so " -Months before this virus outbreak we on this forum had a topic going on what would be a good thing to stock up on for bartering items if the economy collapsed . " I said toilet paper " . Probably some thought I was trying to be funny but I was very serious and was trying to throw up a warning sign . Here again I am not trying to be funny " we are having a chicken /chooks shortage " . Some may already have found this out . Live walking around chickens for egg production is what I am referring to .

 

Today the price of oil reached a NEGATIVE $ 37.00 a barrel . No that is not an error Reached a NEGATIVE $37.00 a barrel . I didn't think that was even possible . What that means to our crashing economy or perhaps I should put that in past tense " crashed " I have no idea . I would like to know what you guys think this means . ----- I am not sure so I will ask - Is the U.S. dollar value tied to crude oil ?

 

Yes, I believe it is traded in U.S. dollars.

The oil prices have nothing to do with COVID-19 and more to do with Saudi Arabia and Russia I do believe. But the silver lining is that grocery items should be cheaper since fuel is cheaper and truckers can fill their trucks on the cheap. At least that's the idea.

I wouldn't look at oil as a benchmark for a collapsing economy but rather the unemployment and the stock market as a whole. If the stupid governors don't allow people to get back to work despite the low death rate in respect to other criteria that you can die from, then we WILL have major situation on our hands and you can thank the asshole draconian governors for that.

 

Good morning Poltiregist,

Ref the 2 questions posed;

1. "...think this means." [?];

I think these reports are molded to reformat US public opinion for a major reconfiguration of US society; social, economic and political. Oil yesterday was not free. It had a cost.

What was distorted was the US oil (West Texas Intermediate [WTI]) - futures contracts - that were coming due and no ability to "refinance" ("roll over" into new contracts) them because of changed circumstances. This quarantine drastically reduced the use of oil products. The OPEC-Russia oil agreements were part of the circumstances. The US stores the usual oil supplies in Cushing, Oklahoma. It would overflow - no more storage space - if more oil arrived. I'm omitting much from the procedures of the oil industry. (The US "oil industry" is less about a Houston-Tulsa corridor and more so about the Houston-New York City corridor. The financial contracts are developed in NYC.) A futures contract, like the other futures contracts for eg index rates, orange juice, the grain trade, are, in a sense, games of chance; a gamble. Those holding yesterday's WTIc futures contracts miscalculated because of world events and lost their bets.

The financial press is nearly as manipulated as is the political press like the Washington Post, NY Times, ...

Posed Question 2; Is the US dollar tied to the cost of oil ? ;

For both the Arabs' "sweet" oil (no sulfur), Russian oil, US oil (and fracking products), a - basically -"Yes" answer. *** I give a "Yes" answer with the condition that I am given an opportunity for a private talk of about 4 hours - a full morning - to explain and elaborate. *** I'd start off with adding the background of President Woodrow Wilson's "elastic money".

Having mentioned President Wilson, I'll close this post by mentioning that the current restructuring going on via the pandemic vehicles is larger than FDR's mobilization to end the Great Depression and rearm for the Great War Part Two.

 

Thanks for the replies on the oil situation . This seems eerily like the collapse of Venezuela . In Venezuela the loss of income from oil sent them spiraling down the toilet from which they never returned . This time it is the rest of the planet coupled with other problems such as Corona virus and a disintegrated supply chain spiraling down . From this point the economic collapse may pick up speed . Pragmatist and TexaDan you both expressed concerns you might not live long enough to see the collapse and teotwawki but this thing appears to going to be here very quickly . You both may get to test your survival plans .

 

Good morning Poltiregist,

I look forward to the challenge of witnessing and addressing teotwawki.

My survival plans are well-polished and tested.

So far in my life, my best of times were in the worst of eras and events.

Plus, ... VA Cemetery Quantico has so much traffic congestion that I'd rather stay here and deal with the hurricanes, ticks, snakes and semi-human socialist trash.

 

That will be too much to digest let alone swallowed by those outside finance or petro industries. And I hate to say this out loud, but the sheep need to be herd you know.

 

"Nothing vast enters the human mind without a curse." Socrates

Good morning Varuna,

So true, the herds that are most of the populations can't follow this material.

Yet, is it not the same for all else ? and for all of history ?

When Columbus sailed from Spain to the western hemisphere on his seconds trip after 20 years prior to Canada, most of the population thought the world was flat.

How many in Pharaohs' era knew about the construction principles to build pyramids ? Is the answer any different than today ?

The Chinese invention of gunpowder was something somewhat mysterious to the masses.

Not too much is new under the sun.

 

We should ask more simpler question, such as how many in any typical survivalist / prepper forum even know how to read map / chart, or how many even have access to updated map / chart (as in know how to access the public or commercial version), or how many even did any form of due diligence to anything they heard or read from the medias (What, Where, When, Who, Why, How)

All the more reason to herd the sheep's, otherwise there wont be any civilization in this world. I know its kinda cruel to herd the sheep's for the benefits of the few who know how to game the system, but that just how real life does.

 

Good afternoon Varuna,

This is not a typical survivalist / prepper forum. Much is advanced-level.

We do have a "newbie" intro section but it is not used that much. Nor is the intro section properly used.

The intro section and the newbie section could filter the questions for development but only a few raise this point.

Advanced-level prepping involves much more than typical survival / prepper forums delve into. So far, MSF.COM is the best for advanced-level prepping that I've come across.

We a private citizens without any NGO status. We must be good citizens all who arrive here. As appointed administrator, Lonewolf has exclusive authority from Daniel to go beyond this.

 

Chicken producers are now slaughtering massive amounts of chickens and disposing of them " burying or burning " as the meat processors are shut down . Source " the common sense show " . I don't know if this is the case for all poultry producers or just some . This discarding of meat produce may also extend to swine . Cattle farmers may face the same dilemma when winter approaches . . Agriculture crops rotting in the fields because of lack of labor . This will eventually effect what is available and at what price at the food stores . ---- We have two lines of thought on this -- believe the political pep rallies that every thing will return to post teotwawki days --- or doing the final preparations for teotwawki . Perhaps there is a third or forth line of thought on this . Different outlooks from our members may help someone survive , what I see as dark days ahead .

 

Blitz I just found your question on how I knew there would be a toilet paper shortage . It was easy , I simply looked at the collapse of Venezuela as a guide as to what to expect. Their first major shortage was toilet paper . Their subsequent shortages that followed should also be taken seriously " food " . Another consideration is their inflation rate as they tried to simply create money and throw it out to the people when their economy faltered . Does that sound familiar ? It is the last desperate gasp of a economically collapsing country .

 

Good morning Poltiregist,

I see the same/similar fact patterns. I just do not use terms like "dark days", "return to normal". My terms are "adjustments [national level], "restructuring", "reset,......

After this pandemic era when, eg, the health care cartels leave the scene, I see US labor receiving compensation so the US Government does not need to fund their health care, their retirement programs (Think of Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, Railroad Retirement Board) and related. Companies will only exist if the USG need not fund the enterprise. Anticipate the restaurant trade changing.

If, eg, someone just loves and craves a fruit or vegetable that is labor-intensive to get to the grocery store, the customer will pay this true cost. Some will change their cravings because of food costs.

If someone just loves and craves Kansas City and Omaha steaks, same as above.

Chicken wings, Thanksgiving turkeys, bacon, ,,,,,,, same as above.

There are many Americans that will learn that:

The party's over.

 

Remember folks, this is all on the shoulders of governors/politicians wanting to control the masses and ignoring the REAL science about the spread of this crap, the infection rate and the death rate. Even so, they want to keep everyone in their houses and not work relying on the government which we all know too well is NOT something we can depend on. Just ask the poor old lady who gets social security and can't afford medication FFS. The keyword there was "social." Yet the flipping Dems call it a success. It part yes, in large part a big fat freaking NO! Especially since ass^&0 politicians are dipping into it.

If the governors in some states (you know who you are) don't reopen, then the people will take up arms and since we are not like some bum fuck South American country, we have guns and we WILL use them! That's the great thing about the 2nd amendment. The founding fathers made sure it was the second bill of right for a reason. Least we all forget. Those poor bastards in Venezuela didn't even have a chance. I've donated to several charities that help them. And while I like being a philanthropist, I'm already tired of seeing junk mail begging for more money. LOL

 

Teotwawki doesn't happen unless three things happen:

1) A fat rock heads our way.

2) We get hit with a CME.

3 Joe Bidden somehow becomes president. LOL!

 

Information reached me today - That the oil refineries have now shut down in the United States . I don't know if that is some or all oil refineries . This means available gasoline and diesel may become a thing of the past . Refined oil means the chemicals needed for many components such as the making of plastic . No refined oil for example means no more solar panels or batteries for the panels or automobiles . No big rig trucks bringing in food . The SHEEPLE will no doubt try to convince themselves and each other that the refineries will one day open back up . ---- Actually though this time I suspect the sheeple may be correct and the refineries will open back up but that reopening may not last long as the virus continues its rampage . Either way my group are prepared if the oil refineries never open back up and stores become a thing of the past . ---- On the bright side if fuel becomes a thing of the past the isolated prepper will not have to worry as much about the mobile bands of looters .

 

Good morning Poltiregist,

I read the same/similar.

The term "shutdown" as used doesn't mean going out of business or boarding up for an approaching Cat 5 hurricane. Transport fuels are "on hold" due to less consumption.

The US oil industry is part of the real military - more accurately: the real national security apparatus. We are in good shape.

If any real big event occurs, the US can make Russia and OPEC combined look like a Cox's Bazaar, Bangladesh poor house.

"Amateurs talk strategy; Professionals talk logistics." Attributed to WWII Gen Omar Bradley.

 

Both Senate leader McConnel and Head of finances Mnuchin says there will be no bailout for poorly managed states " ALL Democrat run " --- . The hope the democrats had that the conservative and financially sane run Republican states would give them money to keep up their states afloat is sinking . These ridiculously run states are likely already well past any hope for recovery from the greater depression . Starvation will force many to flee from these collapsing states . These fantasy people is not what preppers want to see moving into their neighborhood .

 

Good afternoon Poltiregist,

I surely do hope their failed states get a bankruptcy program like Puerto Rico is going through.

No displaced, whether with malnutrition or just drunk, will be relocating to this neighborhood. Our Welcome envelopes have an address in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

 

New information just obtained . Meat shortages have now made their way to the grocery stores . Shortages of meat being reported in the states of the Carolinas and Tennessee at the retail stores . This will be soon be coming to stores near you . As people drop their meat consumption and buy the cheaper vegetarian food it will put a heavier demand on agriculture crops resulting in faster depletion of the vegetarian food .

 

New information just obtained . A financial industry leader " not tied to the governments required optimistic prediction " --- Predicts a 50% inflation in the U.S. to be at the retail level in 18 months .

 

Evening poltiregist hope you are well mate, is there a shortage of coffee in America? Can't you get more? I know what you yanks are like if they can't get a cup of Joe in the morning, moan moan moan all bloody day long.

No problems in the UK now its back to about normal stock levels in stores for the most of things. If you love coffee then no point not getting more?

 

Welcome to the forum Max rigger . I like to see a new member jump in an contribute to the discussions . Actually there is not an coffee shortage at this time . I am just prepper minded and do not want to run out any time soon , just in case there becomes a coffee shortage . I got off my coffee half rations after I was able to obtain even more coffee for the stash . Yes you are correct I am not the best company if I don't get my coffee in the morning .

 

Well I read that President Trump is going to issue an executive order mandating that the meat processing plants stay open to secure America's food .
Do our forum members think this will stabilize our food production/distribution and stave off any food shortages in America?

 

This action by government officials shows the desperate situation the planet is in . Actions speak louder than words . A global food shortage is desperately being tried to be avoided . As for as the question " no I do not believe the food shortage and resulting starvation " will be successfully averted .

 

Update according to the U.S. Government officials about 80 % of meat processing plants have or will shut down if employees are not FORCED to return to work . Now we are learning the " vast majority " of those workers are refusing to return to the plants because of the virus . If this is our future - it will be more than the paper isle sitting with empty shelves at the stores . -- source " The Organic Prepper " .

 

Good morning Poltiregist,

Those meat-processing plants are indeed dangerous - both re the processing and the disease aspects.

These places are unsanitary and use recent immigrant labor without them having decent health-care and living arrangements.

Trump is getting these places open under the emergency clauses of that Defense Production Act for critical industries.

My view is that the planned objective is to get consumer meats priced so that the USG can get out of the pro forma policing of the industry. The inspections are a sham and the industry controls the regulatory apparatus - until now with the Trump Administration.

The best example I can think of is the huge pig farms of south China (next to Hong Kong). These are the places generating the annual flu strains causing the problems here and elsewhere.

 

"What are "meat processing plants"? Is that for making spam type meats"

They are plants that butcher cows, pigs and chickens. Without them, no meat in the grocery store, at restaurants, etc.

 

Thanks F22. Wasn't sure if it was different from abattoirs.

 

I'm sorry but this is all such a mess. You have people talking about things that they don't understand. Take the oil thing. The oil industry works in a VERY specific way. Think of it as an assembly line. It moves from one end to the other at a SET speed and there is no real way to slow just one part of it down. Gasoline is getting cheap and it is going to get a lot cheaper. The thing that you have to understand is that the assembly line at its end is the consumer. When we went into lockdown we slowed the end of the line to less than half of what it was. That means that the gas stations were not selling or ordering that means that the refineries suddenly are producing a lot more than they are selling.

When they make the gasoline they store it in tanks. They have just enough tanks to hold it at an even flow. When summer gets here they HAVE to sell a lot of gas to empty those tanks so that they can refill them with home heating fuel for the coming winter. You can't just shut a refining unit down for a while and then turn it back on. Once down it has to be rebuilt.

Anyway the back up goes back to the input side of a refinery. That is where the oil gets to the places where it is refined. The tankers and pipelines are full of oil. What happens when there is no place to put that oil? Do you have any idea what it costs to have to just part a tanker full of oil because it can't of load it???? It rapidly reaches the point where you will PAY someone to take it just to get it off the ship so the ship can get going again. THAT is how you end up with oil having a minus 30 dollars a barrel value. You can't let oil just SIT in a pipeline either.

Part two is short and sweet. the meat industry works very much like this. You can't slow or stop one part of it without the entire thing collapsing. You sell the meat cattle at a specific size and age or their value drops. You don't eat the big adult older cattle as steaks and such because they are not as good. They end up in the processing plats for things like lunch meat and such. The slaughterhouses can't take them now because the packing plants that take the slaughtered sides and turn them into steaks and such are slowed by several problems. Meat can't just sit. It HAS to be processed.

These industries are very much the same and I am sure that most others are to. I just know about these two because I have been around and worked in both at one time or another. In oil my family has been involved from the seismograph crews locating it to the drilling rigs to the refineries and out. We can't stay down much longer or the cost involved in trying to restart them is going to be impossible. We raised cattle and I have worked on a cattle ranch. I also have skinned and cut meat when I was a kid. I feel fortunate in that I live at the beginning end of both of these industries. We will always have meat and always have oil. We may be naked and may not have any money but we won't be hungry or cold here.

 

That was so informative and makes so much sense. Thanks TexDanm.

 

Good morning TexDanm,

The oil industry starts BEFORE the assembly line. It starts with Moscow, OPEC Vienna, Beijing, NYMEX, New York City and US DOE OFF (Office of Fossil Fuels).

This industry in not in market economics.

US consumers' gasoline costs ALSO includes both visible and invisible taxes and Senator Grassley's ground up corn. The Farm Bureau joins the American Petroleum Institute at lunch.

The national officials preparing for the lockdown factored in all above. Repeat: all above.

Tankers and pipelines are full of oil - especially in China because of the bargain prices. When oil storage space is scarce, other market arrangements kick in such as the "Spot Market" made famous by Marc Rich of Zug, Switzerland.

Oil NEVER had a minus $30 bbl value. It was some oil futures contracts.

I have some idea on the cost of a tanker waiting to discharge. Laytime and demurrage are fully insured events in our current scenario and these costs transfer to the buyers' bill. Frequently, on a daily basis, the US Government participates in this pricing so that private citizen consumers are not economically hurt ("social safety net").

So far, US gasoline stations still sell the product and the Middle East is not radioactive.

 

A report I received -- They are taking Hitlers solution for extermination --- They are sealing off turkey and chicken houses and filling the houses with poisonous gas to kill the birds . Then are disposing of them in mass graves . There is no meat processing plants to get the birds onto the consumer supply chain .

 

I avoid stores but have been told canned food items are now being rationed . A limit on how many canned items allowed per customer . This obviously is because the supply of canned items are running out . The frozen meat section becoming barer with each passing day .

 

Good morning Poltiregist,

Yes, canned food is being rationed. Here, Aldi grocery restricts customers to 4 cans per brand. This presumes 4 cans of sought product brand are on the shelves. Frequently, they are not.

This store has only 1 truck delivery per day. I am a cynic. I've lived in other countries and other US areas during emergencies and additional daily trucks would arrive. It is not a difficult logistics adjustment to unload an extra truck the same day.

My belief is that something else is also going on,..to include focus group analysis to see how the public reacts to this.

Had read somewhere else-couldn't find the thread.....In my opinion, a Prepper needs a minimum of a solid year plus of provisions to handle an emergency like this pandemic/quarantine. All this is not happening in a vacuum. In a few weeks, here we have hurricanes. Road travel can be limited to point of no road travel.

 

On April 20, 2020 the price of oil temporarily bottomed out at -$37.63.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/cl:nmx

You are talking politics I was talking about the ACTUAL production system. I also well understand the politics of oil. That is why Texas is one of the poorer states in the union while strangely it would be in the top ten richest NATIONS in the world if it was allowed to produce and sell its natural resources on the international market. That is also why gas costs more in Texas than in other places. Before all of you disagree with that understanding, you pay HUGE taxes on your gasoline that we don't pay. The actual price of gasoline is controlled when it is sold across the state line but NOT when it is sold in the state where it is produced. the part of the price of gasoline that is actually the money for the product is high in Texas but lower to any other place.

In the end all the talking and politics only make the oil industry almost impossible to function inside the US. The production transport refining and then the distribution of the finished product is like a machine. talking about a motor will not change its oil or keep it running. If we allow that engine to die it may never start again. If they have to shut down the refineries starting them back up might be more expensive than just building a new more modern one. If they do that only an imbecile would build those in the US where every attempt is made to prevent and impede them. It will be like our auto industry and GONE mostly to other countries. Even the cars "made" in the US are often only assembled here now. If we do that with the oil industry get ready to pay 10 dollars a gallon for gas.

In the end the Liberals in this nation are trying to cause a total collapse of our economy. They want all of the coal mines gone, all oil production shut down, they are using this COVID stupidity to put us all on welfare. The places like Texas are going back to work while places like California are closing down everything. Washington State even made fishing in your own back yard against the law. Liberals are anti-sport fishing and hunting so they are using the COVID things to advance their liberal programs.

They would be HAPPY if we let our meat and oil industries collapse. They would LOVE to see Americans starving and standing in line for government handouts. Always remember that those of us that work and get our hands dirty in this country are deplorable to the liberals.