What Will Cause SHTF?

Discussion in 'Newbie Corner' started by ziskasun, Jun 15, 2016.

0/5, 0 votes

  1. Ystranc

    Ystranc Master Survivalist
      330/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    Yes TexDanm fluorine is a common element, but please don't dismiss this out of hand, please look into it a little further. There is a long history of scientific data and court records of class action law suits against DuPont. Look into compounds called C8 and GenX that accumulate in the body. These two are just the tip of the iceberg.
    https://www.collective-evolution.co...e-in-the-body-cause-multiple-health-problems/
     
  2. watcherchris

    watcherchris Master Survivalist
      330/345

    Blog Posts:
    0

    Without fossil fuels....most food production on the scale needed to feed the world will come to a stop. People and nations will starve. Not just because of the food production issues in using the internal combustion engine...but also the transportation arena...including shipping by crude oil boiler or large shipboard diesel engines.

    These green people are so out to lunch...I don t think many of them have a clue how stuff gets to areas of little from areas of plenty or how it is produced.



    There was a Historian many years ago named Will Durant. In an interview he was asked what was the reason for the decline and fall of so many civilizations back into history.

    His very profound answerer was....."Their standards fell."


    I thought that a very interesting and profound reply.


    My non Ishmaelite .02,

    Watcherchris
     
  3. Ystranc

    Ystranc Master Survivalist
      330/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    It's not just transporting the food that is grown either, a lot of the fertilisers that are used in modern agriculture are ammonium nitrate based which require extracts from petroleum. Without these fertilisers modern agricultural monoculture methods cannot continue but it could take 20 years or more to get land back into use using the old fashioned rotational method. 20 years of near zero production before getting back to much lower but sustainable production.
    We won't even be able to feed ourselves let alone the 3rd world.
     
  4. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
      510/575

    Blog Posts:
    0
    the third world will have to feed itself after SHTF we will have enough problems of our own with worrying about feeding them.
    the fertilisers that Ystranc talked about are all imported into the UK, without them monocropping which seems to be how modern arable agriculture works these days will come to a juddering halt, the ground will be infertile without those fertilisers.
    as far as I can see we will be(in the UK at least) back to subsistence food production more like allotment gardening than farming as such.
     
    Ystranc likes this.
  5. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
      525/575

    Blog Posts:
    1
    The thing about global warming is that pointing and blaming individual nations and places is about like blaming a tornado on someone. Sorry people, weather just happens and always has. If it is really a problem then why don't we look at things that we can DO to fix it instead of spending all of out time blaming it on things that may or may not be the causes. Problems are fixed mostly by DOING things rather than NOT doing things.

    There are actually several things that we can DO to reduce the warming whether it is a natural swing or a human caused issue. None of these things include destroying the economic structure of the first world nations. I remember when the exact same scientists were telling us that burning fossil fuels was going to cause an ice age because the smoke would reduce the amount of light that reached the ground. These same idiots got national and international attention at the start of the first gulf war. They were screaming that if the oil fields in Kuwait caught on fire it would cause something akin to a nuclear winter. Weeeelll, we did it burned and we did not have a Fimbulwinter!

    If we wanted to cool things off we could do it in several ways. A form of cloud seeding with the chemicals being added to jet fuel has been discussed but ignored because basically nobody really WANTS to fix it because they really are not sure that anything is broke. I've looked hard at all of this and actually the only areas that are actually warming up much are in the far north. Antarctica is actually getting colder. Most of the central bands of the earth between the tropics and the arctic are actually having colder winters and cooler summers.

    What you see are reports of localized heat waves that have always been a periodic occurrence. Hell's hairy Balls, we had snow in South East Texas before winter even got here this year!!! We NEVER have snow but in the last couple of years it has been more common. Does this mean that we are looking right in the face of an ice-age??? NO its weather. We had 90+ degree heat index weather and snow all in the same week. THAT is just Texas weather.
     
  6. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
      525/575

    Blog Posts:
    1
    All we have to do is kill about half of the people on the planet and everything will be better...for a little while. I don't see many people volunteering for that so we need to just find better ways to grow more food. Ammonium Nitrate is not just made from oil. It is in poop, urine and a natural part of composting. Coal and oil is just a natural form of composting that was allowed to go unbothered until it was almost pure carbon.

    Most of the caves were cleaned out for the bat guano for the ammonium nitrate to make black powder. There are Islands that are covered with hundreds of thousands of years of bird poop. The natives have gotten rich selling their soil. The old fashion crop rotation is just a slow death for the soil. When you ship grains and crops else where you are actually exporting your top soil. The old way of farming before modern fertilizers led to the Dust bowl in the US and famines world wide. If you take the minerals out of the soil and don't replace them the soil becomes barren and even rotation won't fix that. Starvation is UGLY! What some call pollution others call survival.
     
  7. Ystranc

    Ystranc Master Survivalist
      330/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    Yes Tex, it's in oil and poop but it is no longer recovered from poop in any great volume. Even the almost sterile pelletised waste from waste water treatment plants is discarded rather than go back into the food chain because of fear of heavy metal contamination. I reccomend well composed poop directly onto fruit trees and pasture though. Composting your own waste gives a valuable resource for small scale growers with our uk imported food prices set to rise by at least 10% next year after Brexit.
    We grow great pumpkins on it as it composts, liquid run off is used as a fertiliser tea for plants in raised beds and our greenhouse. We also use wormeries to increase the speed at which waste is broken down....the point is though that this is all small scale and is taking place on land that has never had chemical fertilisers. We use pig and sheep poop as well as seaweed meal alternating with lime or wood ash every few years.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2018
  8. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
      525/575

    Blog Posts:
    1
    My father in law used to clean out stables several times a year just to get the free organic fertilizer. At the end of the season he would fill between the rows with rice hulls that he would burn and then put in the stables stuff. He would cover it with black plastic for a month and then break it back up and pull up rows for the fall garden. The black plastic made it so hot underneath that any seeds in the horse poop or that had gotten in the garden otherwise were mostly killed and he didn't have to fight weeds very hard. He also returned to the garden anything that was not eaten like the roots off onions and radishes or the shucks off the corn. He sort of composted between the rows that way.I swear he could grow hair on a bowling ball!
     
    Ystranc likes this.
  9. Ystranc

    Ystranc Master Survivalist
      330/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    I've only ever seen that technique from gardeners in the large walled gardens of big houses. It takes a lot of space.
    Sometimes the old ways work best.
     
  10. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
      525/575

    Blog Posts:
    1
    He had three acres and about a quarter to a third of an acre was garden.
     
  11. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
      297/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    Okay, here is the reality of SHTF, There are only two (2) types of SHTF events. What you say, Yes I say. The two events are classified as Sudden (without warning) and Gradual (warning signs are prevalent). Now each category will have it's listed events but each category will also have certain response needs. My biggest concern are the sudden event category. They are the most difficult to plan for. Gradual events (economical collapse, civil strife) all have warning signs and your attention to these warning sign will allow most preppers to be ready. The Sudden events types (grid down, hug earthquake, massive volcano eruptions--should be some signs but maybe not) These are problems that can catch a prepper at a very bad moment. I might have the best prepared BOL in the world but if I get caught 2,000 miles from it by a sudden event, then Mr. Murphy may have the last laugh. So I look at these types of events and then build up my preps accordantly. A get home bag is just that, a badg to get me home if I am a short distance away (hundreds of miles -- not thousands). I would need a full camping setup if I was trapped 2,000 miles from home, when a full blown SHTF event happen. Unless you are traveling in an RV or camper, you are planing on staying with family or at hotel / motels. No pots or pans in your travel bags. Yes we will have first aid stuff and maybe some emergency supplies but will we have what is needed to walk 2,000 miles? Would we be physically fit enough to walk 2,000 miles? Could we even find your way back home, if you had to get off the interstates and use rural routes?

    The point being, It really does not matter what might cause an event, what matters is how would your respond? With Sudden type events, you are going to already have to have all your ducks lined up and ready to go. Gradual events will allow more time to react and add extra preparations. The majority of my focus will be in getting my preps and procedures set for the sudden event (grid down). Now I can't do much about long distance travel, we don't own an RV or camper. Also wife or I most likely would not be able to walk 2,000 miles or anything close to that. So I plan for what we can physically accomplish and hope Mr. Murphy will cut us a break. Yes many could handle the long hike and more power to them, make your preparations for that contingency. Me, I have two bad knees (unstable), wife has bad heart, doubtful we would survive the journey. So with that being said, we don't dump a lot of resources into those scenarios. We do put the majority of our prep resources into our home survival situation. Defense and survival supplies (food, water, shelter). Unless you are a billionaire, you should focus on your most likely situation, not what the cause will be. JM2c
     
    Morgan101 and poltiregist like this.
  12. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
      525/575

    Blog Posts:
    1
    I think that we are currently IN a gradual decline that will eventually lead to a collapse. This culture is like a person with a severely compromised immune system. If it is healthy then it can recover from a pretty massive cataclysm where in a degraded state the level of problem that we can recover from is slowly growing smaller and smaller.

    The rot that is affecting most of the western world is at the individual level. We are no longer morally or intellectually competent to elect our leadership. When a people start to accept that their leaders are permitted to lie to them and and not required to meet ANY standard of moral compliance then it is in a terminal state.

    Liberalism as it is currently practiced is a sort of socialistic hedonism where nobody is held to account for their actions. It is just a matter of time before something happens and we will not be able to deal with it OR someBODY will roll in and just take us over. We might be able to fight an outside attacker but we don't seem to be able to rule effectively inside our countries anymore. When you throw open your borders to all who come and don't even require them to conform to the rules of your culture you will soon be at their mercy.
     
  13. Academy-A-wart

    Academy-A-wart Member
      13/29

    Blog Posts:
    0
    View attachment 2615
    A lack of sunspots could cause a mini ice age (see Maunder Minimum) The sunspots have been gone since (I think) 2014
     

    Attached Files:

    • Sun.png
      Sun.png
      File size:
      71.9 KB
      Views:
      13
    Last edited: May 1, 2019
    TMT Tactical likes this.
  14. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
      525/575

    Blog Posts:
    1
    This is normal. the sun goes on an 11 year cycle. We are heading to the bottom of the current cycle now. It will bottom out in 2020 and then hopefully go back up as it has regularly since the Maunder Minimum. In sure if it does something different it will be because people did something.
    bc021006de40c1b7cbafd176e0dc5b57.png
     
    Dunmaghlas and TMT Tactical like this.
    1. Academy-A-wart
      I hope you're right
       
      Academy-A-wart, May 1, 2019
  15. koolhandlinc

    koolhandlinc Expert Member
      173/230

    Blog Posts:
    0
    As far as the sun goes. I follow the Suspicious Observers. They are on You tube and also have several websites. They give a daily report on sun activity. I signed up for alerts. I try to always watch them but lately I leave for work at 5:30am. Just a little before they send out the report. Sunspots, coronal mass ejections, solar wind, the electromagnetic interaction between the sun and earth and even comets are discussed. The Carrington Event of 1859 can happen again. Powers far greater than mankind can change history in a moment.
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
  16. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Master Survivalist
      410/460

    Blog Posts:
    0
    We went to reduced sulfur coal. Turns out that we may have to find out some way of getting sulfur into the upper atmosphere to slow down any warming the burning of carbon may cause.

    One could throw up their hands. What do these "geniuses" want?!

    When working in industry we provided control systems for factories scrubbers.
    https://www.industrialaccess.com/blog/smokestack-scrubbers-what-you-need-to-know/
    There are also devices that use god-awful Voltages to set-up static fields that cause precipitation of unwanted components of the smoke.
    https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-ways-to-reduce-pollution-from-chimney-of-factory
    We provided the industrial controls to operate the latter type of equipment (plus every other type of equipment known to humankind).

    So what happens. Scrubbed smoke shoots FAR higher into the atmosphere than the original unscrubbed. What chemicals and aerosols left in that exhaust harmed the atmosphere more than before.

    OK, so the geniuses in the environmental agencies are dimwits. Smart sometimes, but hey, we "stupid" industrial men made A's in calculus also. Maybe these geniuses aught'a get their sh## together before coming to us "lowly" people.
     
    GateCrasher and TMT Tactical like this.
  17. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
      510/575

    Blog Posts:
    0
    I think that the cause of SHTF will probably be man made rather than natural, could be a combination of the two but most likely man made, humans are good at messing things up aren't they?
     
    Morgan101 and TMT Tactical like this.
  18. Morgan101

    Morgan101 Expert Member
      235/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    Lonewolf: While I agree with you that humans are good at messing things up, I believe the cause of SHTF will be a natural disaster. I don't think there is a place on the planet that is immune to natural disaster. We have a tornado season, a hurricane season, a flood season, and these all happen when the weather is good. Winter brings up even worse conditions. They don't happen very often in the Continental 48, but Alaska has its fair share of volcanoes. We are not immune ergo Mt. St Helens circa 1980. Throw in an annoying little earthquake now and again, and the odds are leaning toward natural disaster.

    These are the most likely to happen, so that is what gets the most of my attention.
     
    Old Geezer and TMT Tactical like this.
  19. IBME

    IBME Expert Member
      232/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    Serious preppers should not even have this conversation subject. Your either prepared........or your "NOT" prepared. Most preppers ain't. If your prepared and in an isolated location, it matters zero what the trigger is, or if the trigger is a fast or slow trigger.

    People are either prepared........or they are delusional, and pretending. The funniest statement is people who say, "Well.......I am pretty much prepared". You is either pregnant or you is not pregnant........no in-between.

    The simple ugly truth is that the evil predator people who are more prepared mentally, physically and devoid of any moral standards, have a higher chance at survival.
     
  20. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
      525/575

    Blog Posts:
    1
    Serious preppers should definitely have these discussions. there are so many possible causes and the preparations for an EMP SHTF is totally different from a Plague based SHTF or one of a more social unrest sort of fall. By discussing this we may get ideas that hadn't occurred to us before plus the differences between our various strategies.

    There is a world of levels of preparedness. You have the sort like most people that live on the coast have to ride out a hurricane and get by for a week or so without power or grocery stores being open. those people ARe prepared...for that situation.

    On the other end of the spectrum, you have people that are going underground in deep silos that are stocked and prepared for riding out an end of the world that may last for years and years. There is a LOT of in between. Not everyone has the money to build a fortress. Not everyone can just get up and walk away from their life in the bigger cities to move to safer more isolated areas. Each person has to balance their preparations with the reality of their situation.

    I disagree that evil predatory people will have a higher chance of survival. In a world where the police and courts are not protecting these people, their survival rate will be almost ZERO. Now if someone wants to attack you and threaten you you call the police. They can't/won't do anything about it unless there are witnesses that are willing to testify or you have marks proving the attack. Either way, they will come back and keep threatening you and you get a restraining order. Finally, the guy kills you and THEN finally the cops and courts might put him in prison for a few years. now, after the SHTF the first time that fool attacked you he signed his death warrant. the next time he comes at you, you kill him and dump the trash in a hole. END of the problem.

    Believe me, when lots and lots of people start carrying guns people get a lot more polite. Thugs in Texas don't act anything like the stories that I hear and read about in other places. Here if a thug messes with a lady and touches her, depending on her mood, she may smile bat her eyelashes at you and then drop kick you right in the balls...or if she is in a bad mood she will drop you dead. You do NOT lay hands on a lady in Texas. If she doesn't get you a man will. When the cops are gone the thugs will either learn manners or die...At least that is the way it will be here.
     
  21. IBME

    IBME Expert Member
      232/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    My point is very simple..........DON"T be anywhere near other humans. Everything that you brought up assumes humans encountering other humans.

    If you have "ZERO" human contact after the SHTF, you have a massively higher chance of surviving.

    If someone is really serious about "ADVANCED" survival........Step #1 move now, not next week, not tomorrow, move as far away from other humans as you can. No other single thing that a prepper can do comes close to step #1. MOVE.

    If you live far far far away from any humans, and you have ten or twenty years of food and water and shelter, you are substantially prepared for everything.

    What do wealthy people do when they prepare......??? They have impregnable bunkers to isolate them from any humans, and they have 10 or 50 years of food and water.

    Want to avoid the plague........easy avoid all humans.



     
    Last edited: May 2, 2019
    lonewolf and TMT Tactical like this.
  22. TexDanm

    TexDanm Shadow Dancer
      525/575

    Blog Posts:
    1
    Each of us has different needs and ambitions. To me, your "DON"T be anywhere near other humans." is unimaginable. I think that I will be alone as long as I want in a coffin. Until then I want the people that I love and like around me and to some extent, I like people that I don't know. SOME of them might become friends. I can't imagine dying alone out in the middle of nowhere.

    It would be better to live shorter and enjoy my life than survive longer alone without purpose other than breathing for another day. My fear of death isn't as important to me as my pleasure from life. As I said at first, I understand that we are all different. I have been blessed I guess in that I have had a lot of good people in my life that have more than made up for the less pleasant people I have had to deal with.
     
    Old Geezer and TMT Tactical like this.
  23. IBME

    IBME Expert Member
      232/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    Now I get it..........you assume that a person can't live with their family and be happy, content and vibrantly alive in a tranquil remote location.
    Good thing that all the families living that lifestyle in Alaska and Montana, and Idaho, and many other locations (like a large Texas ranch) are not aware of this.
    Well........actually they are aware, because they deliberately moved away from the mass of humanity living shoulder to shoulder with thousands and millions of humans.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2019
    lonewolf and TMT Tactical like this.
  24. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
      297/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    As an urban man, lived and was raised almost all my life in an urban environment, what chance do you think me and my family would have if we suddenly moved into a wilderness environment, with NO people around to provide information and knowledge on how to live and prosper in a wilderness environment? We can live life to exist or we can exist to live life. People should prep for the environment they live in, not for the best environment to exist in.
     
  25. Oldguy

    Oldguy Expert Member
      193/230

    Blog Posts:
    0
    Stupid will be the end of us!

    Instead of following the boring but correct science we stupidly follow the junk science as it is easy and more fun!

    Planet earth has already entered its long term cooling cycle ignore it at your peril

    I don't really care what others think as most are just plain stupid but me I am preparing for cold, long cold winters and short sharp summers!:)
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
  26. GrizzlyetteAdams

    GrizzlyetteAdams Crap Creek Survivor
      230/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    As the saying goes, different strokes for different folks...

    I have lived on both ends of the spectrum, from urban New Orleans all the way to complete isolation on my wilderness BOL. I agree that isolation will drastically reduce the human depredation problem, but the wildlife nearly killed me several times. (But I still treasure the solitude of the forest more than I do the insanity of so-called civilization.)

    Even after dealing with bears, rattlesnake bite, and rabies, etc. etc. ad nauseum...I will still say that humans are THE most dangerous critters out there...

    Sadly, even the most remote places are discoverable via modern technology (satellite, etc. etc.). I am willing to bet that most isolated BOL and homesteads are already in more than a few people's crosshairs and for absolute certain, the government has full knowledge of such places as well. So while a person may not be living shoulder-to-shoulder with the unwashed masses, we are all vulnerable to human depredation no matter where we live.

    Complete isolation is not what it used to be a few decades ago... and I sure do miss the old days. That's what I get for being born 200 years too late.




    .
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2019
  27. TMT Tactical

    TMT Tactical The Great Lizard !
      297/345

    Blog Posts:
    0
    GZ. so very true. I have an associate I met on another forum. We chatted for many years, exchanging ideas and concepts. He is a multi-millionaire. He built a multi-million dollar bug out fortress. The only way in was by helicopter. Located on top of a mountain, he even had radar. All the stuff for a very long uninterrupted stay. Then one day some members of the local Indian tribe dropped by just to be friendly. Seems they did know a trail up to the top of that mountain. They also knew all about his 'Secrete Fortress". If more that one person knows your secrete, chances are it is not a secrete.
     
    GrizzlyetteAdams and Morgan101 like this.
  28. lonewolf

    lonewolf Moderator Staff Member
      510/575

    Blog Posts:
    0
    isolation and being far removed from other humans post SHTF is the only way to (almost)guarantee one's survival, we can survive bad weather and other natural events but its other people stupidity that will probably kill us.
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
  29. Old Geezer

    Old Geezer Master Survivalist
      410/460

    Blog Posts:
    0
    What you said, plus higher levels of radiation off the solar winds due to weakening field strengths of our planet's magnetic lines of flux. The radiation can directly melt glaciers, duh. However shut down the Atlantic Gulf Stream and poof!, Europe goes COLD.

    We humans are p!$$ants. We imagine ourselves to be bears, however we are simply picnic invaders to Mother Nature.

    When attending school, I once installed fiberglass insulation under a guy's house, the attic insulation, he already had. I hate fiberglass. But then again, it beats freezing your rear-end off. Winds and cold are going to be rich ... and for generations it will be hell. Teach your children well.
     
    TMT Tactical likes this.
  30. Oldguy

    Oldguy Expert Member
      193/230

    Blog Posts:
    0
    My greatest fear is a knock on the door/gate and the words similar to " .gov here we are here to help ". :eek:

    They are like flies shoot one today and a hundred turn up tomorrow, then you are in the shit big time!

    Everything I have will be on wheels.:D
     
Loading...
Similar Threads Forum Date
Student Blogger Kills Himself Because He Lost His Phone On A Night Out!! News, Current Events, and Politics Jan 21, 2019
Coles Stores Closed As Nationwide Checkout Glitch Causes Chaos Australia Aug 18, 2018
The Main Causes For Which Chickens Do Not Make Eggs In The Winter Herbalism - Medicinal, Practical, and other Uses Nov 16, 2017
U.n. Held An Emergency Meeting Because Of North Korea's Missile Launch News, Current Events, and Politics Jul 8, 2017
A Transient Ischemic Attack (tia) Is A Transient Episode Of Neurologic Dysfunction Caused By Ischemi Emergency Treatment Jun 21, 2017
" There Cannot Be Plan B Because There Will Be No Planet B" The Hangout Jun 2, 2017
Curing Muscle Pain Caused By Prilosec or Omeprazole First Aid and Medicine Jul 21, 2016
Shoot Or No Shoot After Shtf? Mental Preparedness Apr 4, 2019
Gps|good Or Bad When Shtf Navigation Mar 20, 2019
Building A New House Designed To Survive Shtf Permanent Shelters Mar 11, 2019

Share This Page