When Do You Trigger The Execution Of Contingency Plan?

We normally make contingency plans for any type of disaster e.g. drought, political violence, floods etc. But we do never document when to activate the plans. For drought, the early warning system indicates that you can monitor the stages of drought and activate the contingency when the situation is on alarm. But for other disasters, there is no clear strategy of activating the contingency plan.

 

Here is a link that will at least give you a starting point. Good advice, and good things to consider. The Acronym is Red Out. Black Scout goes into detail on each, but if you don't want to watch the whole thing (I think it is only 10 minutes) here they are.



R: Resources or lack of
E: Environmental Threats (natural disaster)
D: Destination - if you don't have a place to go you are a refugee. Stay put.

O: Overwhelming force - Will you be mobbed?
U: Unprepared for the situation
T: Threat Growing. Violence is getting closer to you or is getting worse.

 

You have to use your own best judgment and do what you believe is best for yourself and your family's safety and survival.

 

An adage from the business intelligence field:
"The more you know the later it is and thus the greater the risk."

There are variables and constants and like others mentioned above, the individual must evaluate and act accordingly.

If, for example, a public service announcement (PSA) reports of a "Point of Dispensation" (for delivery of medical stuff eg flu shots [Point of Distribution for non-med stuff like blankets, sanitary kits, MREs]) being established near you, evaluate as to why and concurrently just follow me. We'll be in Kansas in only a few months of journey. We will then join Dorothy of "The Wizard of Oz" fame. Dorothy was looking for a place where there "isn't any trouble".

 

Shoot, I wish I could plan ahead for anything. This world spins in more ways than one.

 

Most everything is as was previously stated. Play it by ear.

I have already taught my family that if the electricity is off. The car won't start and the cell phones don't work. Its likely an EMP. Weather its from a nuke or the sun doesn't matter. The same plan is in action. For my family, They are all within 2 miles of home almost all the time. So immediately head for home. For me its different. I was working for a time longer distances. Now I am about 8 miles from home and can walk it quickly. We need to get home before people start to understand whats really happening and go crazy. When I was further away. My family new I would head home as fast as possible. Here in the states, people will mostly have some food and will not get hungry immediately . So basically beat the threat.

Most other issues will be slower to unfold.

 

TMT Tactical,

Good point: "...we will get very little concrete information". I do not rely on public service announcements (PSAs). I've got my own I&W's - "Indicators and Warnings". If, for example, the roads are closed, I go on high-alert. If a PSA tells of schools letting out early: an I&W for me. I do have other I&W's because I'm an emergency responder. In summary; I use my own collection of indicators to determine the situation. At the national level, former FEMA Director Craig Fugate, developed the "Waffle House Index". If Waffle House closed, max work, max danger.

I'm already at my BOL - but things change. This rural area - still rural - is overbuilt and over-populated.

Premier plan, less emergency responder activation, is to shelter in place, listen to chimes on shortwave-received BBC, preload espresso machine for immediate use, shake fire extinguishers for immediate use and avoid thinking I really should have loaded up on more chocolate chip cookies and AA batteries.

An admitted weakness: my hard hat bag has the various weather liners, eg the thick Army cap with long earmuffs down below neck, the fireproof firefighter under-helmet head cover and 3 wool sock "watch caps", plus 2 mosquito nets. Add the extra batteries I carry for helmet light and the bag does get heavy. ... and it's one of the lighter bags assembled here.

 

I am in my bug-out location all summer and my winter location is 68 miles away so I basically do nothing in terms of movement. For natural disasters, I would stay in place. For a civil war, I'll wait till the other side begins shooting and then report for action liberating Sacramento.

 

I've been my bugout area for over twenty years now, so the only thing that will rout me out would be fire. I have been (for the most part except for computers) living like it's the 1800s, so I won't miss electricity (too much) when it is gone.

Caribou pointed out one fairly good "litmus test" for detecting when major S has HTF: When credit cards are no longer working, and when inflation is starting to go wild. I don't have a credit card, and don't need to be making a last-minute buying spree, so that litmus test won't work for me.

But, when it does hit the fan...unless it is one of those slow-boil kind of things (think Venezuela) or a medium-high boil such as a pandemic, I suspect that something like CME/EMP, nuclear mischief, cybercrap, etc. will be so breathtakingly sudden that it will catch ALL of us off guard.


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Any kind of bank holiday will have me heading out of Florida As soon as I hear of it.

 

I'm going to have to agree, Playing it by ear is probably going to be your best bet, keep an eye and a ear open and look for all the signs. and when it's time to activate your contingency plan go 110% don't hesitate or only go about 50%.

 

If you live in one of the larger urban areas you need to prepare for a slow bug out. That means that you have someplace that you can store some supplies that are NOT in your urban area. If nothing else you might rent a mini-warehouse someplace 50 to 75 miles out of the city in a smaller town. If things start looking hinky you can send your family on a little holiday into that area so that IF things go bad you only have to get you and the clothes on your back with a smaller bug out bag out of town.

Most people just are not going to be able to walk away from their jobs and burn that bridge until it is obvious beyond doubt that it is time to run. Send your family ahead and then you can evac on a small motorcycle or even a bicycle. The problem is that by the time it is obvious that you need to bug out you will be just one among thousands packing the roads. most will be totally unprepared. This is not the time to be burdened with much weight or kids.

Setting this up ahead of time will give you a little more time to decide before you have to abandon your life totally AND it allows you to move out light and fast.

the WHEN is impossible to predict ahead of time. There are too many variables.

 

From what I have read one of the indicators of Bank failures is a bank(s) closing on a Friday claiming they will reopen on Monday. It locks people out of their accounts, and of course, the bank never reopens. This would be a strong indicator that something very bad is happening.

 

Yes. In part you are correct. With no cash the economy stops. Everything crashes. This was a big part of the Big Depression here in 1929. This is a very good short explanation from one of the foremost experts in the field.

 

I have not yet watched the video. IMO, the great depression was caused by the actions of the "fed" pulling cash out of the economy and was exacerbated but the inept "management" of the crisis by fdr. The fed caused it and fdr caused it to drag on years longer than it should have.

 

I agree with you, but Milton Friedman says it so much better than we do., and he is able to quote chapter and verse. I have to look it up.